Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
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FNUS73 KAPX 280943
FWSAPX
Spot Forecast for CountyLine Unit 14 RX...USFS
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
543 AM EDT Fri Jun 28 2024
Forecast is based on ignition time of 0900 EDT on June 28.
If conditions become unrepresentative... contact the National Weather
Service.
Please contact our office at (989)732-9306, if you have questions
or concerns with this forecast.
.DISCUSSION...Rain-free weather will persist through this morning as winds
gradually increase out of the south, strengthening to around 10 mph
at the surface with gusts to 20-25 mph possible at times into this
evening. Chances for light showers will return to the area of the
burn site this afternoon, but any falling precipitation will
struggle to reach the ground initially with some relatively dry low-
level air in place. Better chances for heavier showers are expected
this evening and tonight. Minimum RHs in the 45-50 percent range are
expected during the late morning/early afternoon hours ahead of the
previously mentioned rain chances moving in.
.REST OF TODAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Isolated showers
late in the afternoon.
Max temperature.....Around 72.
Min humidity........46 percent.
20-foot winds.......South winds 6 to 8 mph with gusts to around 23
mph.
Transport winds.....South 15 to 20 mph.
Mixing height.......1300-3100 ft AGL.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
fire growth.
Ventilation index...Fair to excellent (211.0-600.0).
TIME (EDT) 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........66 68 65 70 74 82 87 87 87
Weather cov..... ISO ISO
Weather type.... RW RW
Tstm cov........
Temp............60 62 63 65 66 67 68 67 68
RH..............58 54 52 46 47 50 54 61 63
20 ft wind dir..S S S S S S S S S
20 ft wind spd..9 9 9 10 10 10 10 10 10
20 ft wind gust.23 23 23 22 22 22 22 22 22
Mix hgt (kft)...1.3 1.6 1.8 2.6 3.0 3.1 3.0 2.6 2.1
Haines index....4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4
Transp wind dir.S S S S S S S S S
Transp wind spd.16 15 17 17 18 20 20 17 20
Vrate kt-ft.....211 243 313 444 560 600 595 448 411
Ventrate Cat....FR FR GD GD GD EXL GD GD GD
.TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Cloudy (85-95 percent). Numerous showers and
isolated thunderstorms in the evening, then
showers and scattered thunderstorms overnight.
Min temperature.....Around 64.
Max humidity........93 percent.
20-foot winds.......South winds 6 to 8 mph. Gusts up to 21 mph
early in the evening then 20 mph after 3 am.
Gusty and erratic winds expected near
thunderstorms late in the evening. Gusty and
erratic winds expected near thunderstorms
overnight.
Transport winds.....South 14 to 18 mph.
Mixing height.......600-1300 ft AGL.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
plume dominated fire growth.
Ventilation index...Poor to fair (90.0-246.0).
TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........87 90 92 94 95 95 93 91 90 90 92 93
Weather cov.....ISO ISO SCT SCT SCT NUM NUM NUM DEF DEF DEF NUM
Weather type....RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW
Tstm cov........ ISO ISO ISO SCT SCT SCT SCT
Temp............71 68 68 67 66 66 66 65 66 65 65 66
RH..............59 68 70 78 84 87 87 93 90 90 93 90
20 ft wind dir..S S S S S S S S S S S S
20 ft wind spd..10 10 10 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 8
20 ft wind gust.21 21 21 18 18 18 18 18 18 20 20 20
Mix hgt (kft)...1.3 1.1 1.2 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7
Haines index....4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
Transp wind dir.S S S S S S S S SW SW S S
Transp wind spd.18 16 17 16 16 14 14 15 15 16 15 15
Vrate kt-ft.....246 182 199 127 131 98 109 98 90 101 106 106
Ventrate Cat....FR FR FR PR FR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR
.SATURDAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent) then becoming
mostly sunny (35-45 percent). Numerous showers
in the morning. Scattered thunderstorms through
the day. Chance of showers in the afternoon.
Max temperature.....Around 80.
Min humidity........63 percent.
20-foot winds.......Southwest winds 7 to 8 mph shifting to the west
around 8 mph late in the afternoon. Gusts up to
22 mph. Gusty and erratic winds expected near
thunderstorms in the morning. Gusty and erratic
winds expected near thunderstorms late in the
morning.
Transport winds.....Southwest 15 to 17 mph shifting to the west 18
to 21 mph late in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......600-2500 ft AGL increasing to 3400-4900 ft AGL
late in the afternoon.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
dominated fire growth.
Ventilation index...Poor to good (104.0-430.0) increasing to
excellent (629.0) late in the afternoon.
TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM
Sky (%).........94 93 91 79 57 38
Weather cov.....NUMRUS CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........SCTTRD CHANCE CHANCE S CHC CHANCE CHANCE
Temp............65 67 70 74 76 79
RH..............92 92 90 82 75 65
20 ft wind dir..SW SW SW W W W
20 ft wind spd..9 9 10 10 10 10
20 ft wind gust.22 22 21 21 21 22
Mix hgt (ft)....600 1000 1600 2000 2500 4400
Haines index....3 3 3 3 3 3
Transport wind..SW 17 S 15 SW 16 SW 16 W 17 W 20
Vrate kt-ft.....104 153 261 333 430 870
Ventrate Cat....POOR FAIR FAIR GOOD GOOD EXNT
$$
Forecaster...DJC
Requested by...Ben Wagner
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2416827.1/APX
.DELDT 06/28/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL benjamin.wagner1@usda.gov