974
FNUS73 KAPX 151549
FWSAPX

Spot Forecast for Sawdust Pile North...MIDNR
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1149 AM EDT Thu May 15 2025

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1400 EDT on May 15.
If conditions become unrepresentative... contact the National Weather
Service.

Please contact our office at (989)732-9306, if you have questions
or concerns with this forecast.

.DISCUSSION... Dry today under sunny to mostly sunny skies with
increasing SSE winds at the burn site. Winds top out at 10mph
sustained, with some gusts approaching 20mph this afternoon as
efficient mixing begins to transpire, promoting good ventilation
processes. High temperatures will top out in the lower 80s this
afternoon, with RHs dipping into the 40s with time. Precipitation
chances will hold off until later tonight as an area of
thunderstorms moves across northern Michigan in conjunction with a
warm frontal passage. Conditions turn markedly drier into the day
Friday with temperatures again building into the 80s by the
afternoon. RHs will be lower, perhaps into the upper 20s at times,
with breezy SW winds. Conditions will be border on Red Flag
criteria at times Friday, but thoughts are that RHs will be
marginal at this time. Nonetheless, Sustained winds approaching
15mph and gusts over 25mph are anticipated Friday.



.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (35-45 percent).
Chance of thunder...3 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 82.
Min humidity........45 percent.
20-foot winds.......Southeast winds around 6 mph.
Transport winds.....South 15 to 16 mph.
Mixing height.......4400-5400 ft AGL.
Ventilation index...Excellent (652.0).

TIME (EDT)      2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........45  39  42  39
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Chc of thdr (%).0   0   0   0
Temp............80  82  81  81
RH..............48  45  46  45
20 ft wind dir..SE  SE  SE  SE
20 ft wind spd..7   7   7   7
20 ft wind gust.17  18  18  18
Mix hgt (kft)...5.4 5.4 4.8 4.4
Transp wind dir.S   S   S   S
Transp wind spd.16  15  15  15
Vrate kt-ft.....871 813 715 652
Ventrate Cat....EXL EXL EXL EXL

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (30-40 percent) then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Numerous showers
                    late in the evening. Scattered thunderstorms
                    late in the evening. Scattered showers
                    overnight.
Chance of thunder...45 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 59.
Max humidity........93 percent.
20-foot winds.......Southeast winds 5 to 6 mph. Gusts up to 20 mph
                    in the late evening and overnight. Gusty and
                    erratic winds expected near thunderstorms late
                    in the evening.
Transport winds.....South 13 to 17 mph.
Mixing height.......3900-4600 ft AGL decreasing to 600-1800 ft AGL
                    early in the evening.
Ventilation index...Fair to excellent (263.0-744.0) decreasing to
                    poor to fair (87.0-160.0) in the late evening
                    and overnight.

TIME (EDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........35  31  41  58  72  88  86  90  94  85  76  67
Weather cov.....                    NUM NUM NUM SCT SCT SCT
Weather type....                    RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........                    SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT
Chc of thdr (%).0   0   10  10  10  50  50  50  30  30  30  0
Temp............81  80  79  74  72  70  66  65  64  63  62  61
RH..............45  48  51  60  66  68  81  87  87  87  90  93
20 ft wind dir..SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  S   S   S
20 ft wind spd..7   7   7   7   7   7   7   7   7   6   6   6
20 ft wind gust.18  18  18  20  20  20  20  20  20  17  17  17
Mix hgt (kft)...4.6 3.9 1.8 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0
Transp wind dir.S   S   SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  S   S   SW  SW  SW
Transp wind spd.16  15  15  14  14  15  15  15  15  17  13  16
Vrate kt-ft.....744 590 263 94  87  90  110 110 106 131 110 160
Ventrate Cat....EXL GD  FR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  FR  PR  FR

.FRIDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (20-30 percent).
Chance of thunder...8 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 83.
Min humidity........27 percent.
20-foot winds.......Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph with gusts to
                    around 25 mph.
Transport winds.....Southwest 13 to 20 mph increasing to 23 to 26
                    mph in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......800-2200 ft AGL increasing to 6700-8200 ft AGL.
Ventilation index...Poor to good (105.0-411.0) increasing to
                    excellent (1940.0).

TIME (EDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........48  29  6   5   2   2   4   6   8   13  20  26
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Chc of thdr (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   10  10  10  10
Temp............60  60  62  65  70  74  77  79  81  82  83  82
RH..............90  87  78  73  59  50  42  35  30  28  27  28
20 ft wind dir..SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
20 ft wind spd..7   7   7   8   8   8   13  13  13  13  13  13
20 ft wind gust.21  21  21  21  21  21  25  25  25  25  25  25
Mix hgt (kft)...0.8 0.8 0.9 1.4 2.2 3.7 5.4 6.7 7.4 8.1 8.2 7.7
Transp wind dir.W   W   W   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
Transp wind spd.14  14  13  16  18  20  23  25  26  26  26  25
Vrate kt-ft.....112 105 110 220 411 724 124416851959216821751940
Ventrate Cat....PR  PR  PR  FR  GD  EXL EXL EXL EXL EXL EXL EXL

$$
Forecaster...HAD
Requested by...Jeff Vasher
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2514073.0/APX
.DELDT 05/15/25
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL vasherj@michigan.gov