458
FNUS73 KAPX 041815
FWSAPX

Spot Forecast for Ermine Trail...MIDNR
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
215 PM EDT Mon Aug 4 2025

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1200 EDT on August 05.
If conditions become unrepresentative... contact the National Weather
Service.

Please contact our office at (989)732-9306, if you have questions
or concerns with this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...

Continued relatively weak flow through much of the atmosphere. Afternoon lake
breeze wind shift should be confined closer to the Lake Michigan coast in the
afternoon...with prevailing flow to remain generally easterly under 10mph
Tuesday from the surface through approx 7-10kft agl; switching more westerly
toward 15kft agl. This prevailing easterly surface flow could lead to
downsloping off higher terrain upwind of the burn site and potential for lowered
RHs...though possible easterly flow could also draw some moisture off the North
Branch of the AuSable. Haze/smoke aloft in the area could limit afternoon
heating and keep mixing heights lower...though deeper mixing to 8-9kft agl
could be possible if skies clear more than expected. Expected high temps in the
lower 80s with RHs in the 30-40 percent range by late afternoon. Afternoon
pop-up showers not totally impossible...but appear unlikely at this time.

.TUESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (20-30 percent). Areas of smoke
                    early in the afternoon.
Chance of thunder...2 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 82.
Min humidity........38 percent.
20-foot winds.......East winds 5 to 6 mph.
Transport winds.....East 8 to 9 mph.
Mixing height.......3400-4500 ft AGL increasing to 5400-6400 ft AGL
                    late in the afternoon.
Ventilation index...Good (314.0).

TIME (EDT)      12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........32  28  25  23  21  20
Weather cov.....ARS ARS ARS
Weather type....SMK SMK SMK
Tstm cov........
Chc of thdr (%).0   0   0   0   0   0
Temp............77  79  81  82  82  81
RH..............50  45  41  38  38  39
20 ft wind dir..E   E   E   E   E   E
20 ft wind spd..7   7   7   7   7   7
20 ft wind gust.13  13  13  13  13  13
Mix hgt (kft)...3.4 4.5 5.4 6.1 6.4 6.0
Transp wind dir.E   E   E   E   E   E
Transp wind spd.9   9   9   9   8   8
Vrate kt-ft.....314 429 498 527 514 482
Ventrate Cat....GD  GD  GD  GD  GD  GD

.TUESDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (25-35 percent).
Chance of thunder...2 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 57.
Max humidity........100 percent.
20-foot winds.......East winds 5 to 6 mph early in the evening
                    becoming light.
Transport winds.....East 5 to 13 mph.
Mixing height.......2700-4600 ft AGL decreasing to 500-1200 ft AGL
                    early in the evening.
Ventilation index...Poor to good (22.0-438.0).

TIME (EDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........20  20  20  21  22  22  24  26  28  31  34  36
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Chc of thdr (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Temp............80  79  76  72  68  64  62  61  60  59  58  57
RH..............41  44  50  61  73  87  90  90  90  93  93  96
20 ft wind dir..E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E
20 ft wind spd..7   7   7   6   6   6   3   3   3   2   2   2
20 ft wind gust.13  13  13  12  12  12  7   7   7   5   5   5
Mix hgt (kft)...4.6 2.7 1.2 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5
Transp wind dir.E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E
Transp wind spd.9   12  13  12  10  9   8   8   7   6   6   5
Vrate kt-ft.....438 314 150 73  50  48  38  35  33  28  24  22
Ventrate Cat....GD  GD  FR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR

.WEDNESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (20-30 percent).
Chance of thunder...4 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 85.
Min humidity........38 percent.
20-foot winds.......Light winds becoming southeast 5 to 6 mph in
                    the afternoon.
Transport winds.....Southeast 5 to 10 mph.
Mixing height.......200-1300 ft AGL increasing to 6100-7100 ft AGL.
Ventilation index...Poor to good (9.0-492.0) increasing to
                    excellent (625.0) in the afternoon.

TIME (EDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........29  22  15  16  18  19  20  21  22  26  30  34
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Chc of thdr (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Temp............57  58  61  66  72  78  80  82  83  84  84  84
RH..............100 96  90  78  68  56  51  44  40  38  38  40
20 ft wind dir..E   E   E   E   E   E   SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
20 ft wind spd..1   1   1   5   5   5   7   7   7   7   7   7
20 ft wind gust.5   5   5   10  10  10  14  14  14  14  14  14
Mix hgt (kft)...0.3 0.2 0.5 1.3 2.5 3.7 5.0 6.1 6.8 7.1 6.9 6.1
Transp wind dir.E   E   E   E   SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  S   S
Transp wind spd.5   5   5   6   8   9   10  10  10  10  10  10
Vrate kt-ft.....12  9   22  77  189 341 492 625 707 749 725 631
Ventrate Cat....PR  PR  PR  PR  FR  GD  GD  EXL EXL EXL EXL EXL

$$
Forecaster...FEF
Requested by...Jeff Vasher
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2519213.0/APX
.DELDT 08/04/25
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL vasherj@michigan.gov