514
FNUS73 KAPX 021209
FWSAPX

Spot Forecast for Cooke...Huron Manistee NF
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
809 AM EDT Sat Nov 2 2024

Forecast is based on forecast start time of 0800 EDT on November 02.
If conditions become unrepresentative... contact the National Weather
Service.

Please contact our office at (989)732-9306, if you have questions
or concerns with this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...Rain-free weather at the wildfire location through
tonight, and likely continuing through Sunday. Rain chances are
expected to slowly increase Sunday night. Temperatures will
gradually warm today, topping out around 50. Those warming
temperatures and lack of low level moisture will result in
relative humidity values dropping to just below 40 percent by the
middle of this afternoon. Excellent rh recovery expected tonight,
with low level moisture profiles remaining a bit more elevated on
Sunday. Light/calm winds early this morning will become light
southwest to south later this morning and afternoon...remaining
well below critical levels. Very light south winds tonight, with
winds becoming southeast and gradually increasing in speed on
Sunday.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (5-15 percent).
Max temperature.....Around 51.
Min humidity........37 percent.
20-foot winds.......Light winds.
Transport winds.....West 3 to 6 mph shifting to the southwest
                    around 5 mph late in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......300-2000 ft AGL increasing to 2400-3400 ft AGL
                    in the afternoon.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Ventilation index...Poor to fair (11.0-195.0).

TIME (EDT)      8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........2   2   3   2   5   5   2   4   17  11
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............31  34  37  41  44  47  49  49  51  49
RH..............85  78  72  62  53  45  40  40  37  40
20 ft wind dir..W   W   W   W   W   W   W   SW  SW  SW
20 ft wind spd..2   2   2   2   2   2   2   3   3   3
20 ft wind gust.    5   5   5   5   5   5   6   6   6
Mix hgt (kft)...0.3 0.3 0.6 2.0 2.4 2.9 3.3 3.4 3.4 3.0
Haines index....4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4
Transp wind dir.NW  W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   SW
Transp wind spd.5   3   3   5   3   5   6   5   6   5
Vrate kt-ft.....16  11  21  92  83  132 189 155 195 138
Ventrate Cat....PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  FR  FR  FR  FR  FR

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (20-30 percent) then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (60-70 percent).
Min temperature.....Around 32.
Max humidity........100 percent.
20-foot winds.......Light winds.
Transport winds.....South 5 to 7 mph.
Mixing height.......300-700 ft AGL.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Ventilation index...Poor (18.0).

TIME (EDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........15  21  11  8   17  24  19  42  33  44  41  66
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............49  45  41  39  37  36  35  34  34  34  32  33
RH..............44  55  65  73  79  79  85  89  89  89  96  97
20 ft wind dir..S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
20 ft wind spd..3   3   3   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2
20 ft wind gust.6   6   6   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5
Mix hgt (kft)...0.7 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.4
Haines index....4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4
Transp wind dir.S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
Transp wind spd.5   6   6   6   7   7   7   6   6   7   7   7
Vrate kt-ft.....33  21  20  18  24  24  24  20  21  24  26  26
Ventrate Cat....PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR

.SUNDAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (55-65 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers late in the afternoon.
Max temperature.....Around 55.
Min humidity........51 percent.
20-foot winds.......Light winds becoming southeast 5 to 8 mph late
                    in the morning.
Transport winds.....South 7 to 16 mph.
Mixing height.......300-2200 ft AGL increasing to 1900-2300 ft AGL
                    late in the afternoon.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Ventilation index...Poor to good (24.0-368.0).

TIME (EDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........53  53  59  61  43  58  41  54  66  69  72  75
Weather cov.....                                CHC CHC CHC CHC
Weather type....                                RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........
Temp............33  33  33  37  43  48  50  52  53  54  55  54
RH..............93  97  100 92  82  71  63  57  54  52  51  54
20 ft wind dir..S   S   S   SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
20 ft wind spd..2   2   2   6   6   6   9   9   9   10  10  10
20 ft wind gust.6   6   6   13  13  13  16  16  16  17  17  17
Mix hgt (kft)...0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.9 1.7 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.2 2.1 1.9
Haines index....4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4
Transp wind dir.S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
Transp wind spd.8   7   8   8   12  14  14  15  16  16  15  14
Vrate kt-ft.....28  24  28  32  109 236 283 335 368 351 305 258
Ventrate Cat....PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  FR  FR  GD  GD  GD  GD  FR

$$
Forecaster...MSB
Requested by...Corey Smith
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2425557.0/APX
.DELDT 11/02/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL corey.smith@usda.gov,jacob.mcgill@usda.gov