231
FNUS73 KAPX 132009
FWSAPX

Spot Forecast for Lame Duck foot access...MIDNR
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
409 PM EDT Fri Sep 13 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1700 EDT on September 13.
If conditions become unrepresentative... contact the National Weather
Service.

Please contact our office at (989)732-9306, if you have questions
or concerns with this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...Warm temperatures and rain-free weather is expected to
continue for the next several days...perhaps through the entirety of
next week. With little pattern change anticipated over that time,
highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s are expected for the next several
days. Excellent late morning and afternoon mixing out of already
limited low level moisture will support relative humidity values
dropping below 40 percent during the afternoon hours through at
least Tuesday...especially across inland areas. As of now, not
seeing any significant wind concerns through the period. Looking
ahead, persistence of warm and rain-free conditions may bring about
heightened fire weather concerns with continued drying of fuels as
we head through the second half of September.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (25-35 percent).
Max temperature.....Around 84.
Min humidity........44 percent.
20-foot winds.......East winds around 7 mph.
Transport winds.....East around 13 mph.
Mixing height.......3200 ft AGL.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Ventilation index...Good (402.0).

TIME (EDT)      5PM
Sky (%).........30
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............83
RH..............51
20 ft wind dir..E
20 ft wind spd..8
20 ft wind gust.14
Mix hgt (kft)...3.2
Haines index....5
Transp wind dir.E
Transp wind spd.13
Vrate kt-ft.....402
Ventrate Cat....GD

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (30-40 percent).
Min temperature.....Around 53.
Max humidity........100 percent.
20-foot winds.......East winds 5 to 7 mph early in the evening
                    becoming light.
Transport winds.....East 7 to 14 mph.
Mixing height.......400-2300 ft AGL.
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.
Ventilation index...Poor to good (25.0-315.0).

TIME (EDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........31  31  34  31  30  30  40  35  41  33  39  42
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............81  76  69  66  64  61  60  59  58  57  55  54
RH..............54  62  70  77  83  90  93  94  98  98  100 100
20 ft wind dir..E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E
20 ft wind spd..8   8   8   6   6   6   3   3   3   2   2   2
20 ft wind gust.16  16  16  13  13  13  8   8   8   5   5   5
Mix hgt (kft)...2.3 0.7 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4
Haines index....5   5   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4
Transp wind dir.E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E
Transp wind spd.14  12  12  12  10  10  8   8   8   7   7   7
Vrate kt-ft.....315 79  48  48  44  44  34  34  32  25  27  27
Ventrate Cat....GD  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR

.SATURDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (35-45 percent).
Max temperature.....Around 82.
Min humidity........50 percent.
20-foot winds.......Light winds becoming southeast 5 to 6 mph in
                    the afternoon.
Transport winds.....Southeast 6 to 13 mph.
Mixing height.......300-2200 ft AGL increasing to 2900-3900 ft AGL
                    in the afternoon.
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.
Ventilation index...Poor to good (20.0-485.0).

TIME (EDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........54  54  47  48  44  36  32  30  30  30  31  30
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............54  53  54  59  66  71  75  78  80  80  80  81
RH..............100 99  100 100 86  75  65  59  50  52  52  50
20 ft wind dir..NE  NE  NE  E   E   E   SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
20 ft wind spd..2   2   2   5   5   5   7   7   7   7   7   7
20 ft wind gust.6   6   6   10  10  10  15  15  15  16  16  16
Mix hgt (kft)...0.4 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.6 1.2 2.2 2.9 3.5 3.9 3.8 3.7
Haines index....4   4   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5
Transp wind dir.E   E   E   E   E   SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
Transp wind spd.7   6   6   6   6   7   8   10  12  12  13  13
Vrate kt-ft.....25  21  20  23  36  82  175 305 402 450 485 469
Ventrate Cat....PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  FR  GD  GD  GD  GD  GD

$$
Forecaster...MLR
Requested by...Jeff Vasher
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2422413.0/APX
.DELDT 09/13/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL vasherj@michigan.gov