507
FNUS73 KAPX 171248
FWSAPX

Spot Forecast for SLBE GH WEST 3...NPS
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
848 AM EDT Thu Apr 17 2025

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0800 EDT on April 17.
If conditions become unrepresentative... contact the National Weather
Service.

Please contact our office at (989)732-9306, if you have questions
or concerns with this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...

Mostly clear skies will continue through much of today with
clouds building in later this evening ahead of shower chances
tonight. Sustained southeast winds about 5-10 mph this morning
will increase to become gusty this afternoon with 20-25 mph gusts
possible, while turning more south-southeast. RH values will
decrease through the day and lower to around 30 percent this
afternoon, then rebound into the upper 30/40 percent range by this
evening. Mixing heights look to remain lower today at about 1,100
feet, however, want to note higher mixing heights (~3,000 ft) to
the south and east of the burn location.

Showers move in late this evening/ tonight and continue into
Friday with a good swath of moisture advecting into the region. No
RH concerns Friday.


.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (35-45 percent).
Chance of thunder...1 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 60.
Min humidity........30 percent.
20-foot winds.......South winds 5 to 9 mph. Gusts up to 23 mph in
                    the afternoon.
Transport winds.....South 13 to 18 mph.
Mixing height.......500-1100 ft AGL.
Ventilation index...Poor to fair (72.0-211.0).

TIME (EDT)      8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........15  17  45  45  34  19  14  32  33  61
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Chc of thdr (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Temp............35  38  42  46  50  53  56  58  59  59
RH..............59  54  46  42  37  33  31  30  30  33
20 ft wind dir..SE  SE  SE  SE  S   S   S   S   S   S
20 ft wind spd..8   8   8   8   10  10  10  12  12  12
20 ft wind gust.13  16  16  16  20  20  20  23  23  23
Mix hgt (kft)...0.5 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.1
Transp wind dir.S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
Transp wind spd.14  15  14  13  14  14  14  16  18  18
Vrate kt-ft.....72  94  87  93  116 130 141 172 197 211
Ventrate Cat....PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  FR  FR  FR  FR  FR

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy (85-95 percent). Chance of rain showers
                    late in the evening. Rain showers likely
                    overnight, then rain showers overnight.
Chance of thunder...14 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 48.
Max humidity........86 percent.
20-foot winds.......South winds 8 to 10 mph.
Transport winds.....South 18 to 25 mph.
Mixing height.......900-1500 ft AGL.
Ventilation index...Fair to good (184.0-364.0).

TIME (EDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........76  81  83  94  95  98  97  99  100 98  95  93
Weather cov.....            CHC CHC CHC LKY LKY DEF DEF DEF DEF
Weather type....            RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........
Chc of thdr (%).0   0   0   0   0   10  10  10  10  10  10  10
Temp............58  57  56  53  52  51  51  49  48  49  49  49
RH..............36  38  42  50  56  61  63  77  83  80  80  84
20 ft wind dir..S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
20 ft wind spd..12  12  12  12  12  12  13  13  13  12  12  12
20 ft wind gust.22  22  22  21  21  21  22  22  22  21  21  21
Mix hgt (kft)...1.2 0.9 1.3 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.0 1.3 1.3
Transp wind dir.S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
Transp wind spd.18  20  20  22  23  23  25  23  23  21  23  23
Vrate kt-ft.....221 184 261 297 301 301 364 349 355 200 289 300
Ventrate Cat....FR  FR  FR  FR  GD  GD  GD  GD  GD  FR  FR  GD

.FRIDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (80-90 percent). Rain showers
                    through the day. Chance of thunderstorms in the
                    afternoon.
Chance of thunder...29 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 52.
Min humidity........79 percent.
20-foot winds.......Southwest winds 7 to 8 mph shifting to the west
                    around 7 mph late in the afternoon. Gusty and
                    erratic winds expected near thunderstorms late
                    in the afternoon. Gusty and erratic winds
                    expected near thunderstorms late in the
                    afternoon.
Transport winds.....Southwest 13 to 22 mph decreasing to around 12
                    mph late in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......500-1200 ft AGL.
Ventilation index...Poor to fair (60.0-269.0).

TIME (EDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........90  88  79  75  76  85  86  85  84  84  86  88
Weather cov.....DEF DEF CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC DEF DEF DEF DEF
Weather type....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........                                CHC CHC CHC SCH
Chc of thdr (%).10  10  0   0   0   0   0   0   30  30  30  20
Temp............49  49  49  50  51  51  50  50  51  51  51  50
RH..............82  86  86  84  81  79  86  85  83  83  81  83
20 ft wind dir..S   S   S   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
20 ft wind spd..14  14  14  14  14  14  13  13  13  12  12  12
20 ft wind gust.21  21  21  20  20  20  15  15  15  14  14  14
Mix hgt (kft)...1.2 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5
Transp wind dir.S   S   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
Transp wind spd.22  17  17  18  20  18  17  16  14  13  12  12
Vrate kt-ft.....269 180 149 149 133 115 104 91  79  70  63  60
Ventrate Cat....FR  FR  FR  FR  FR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR

$$
Forecaster...NSC
Requested by...Brandon Ramirez
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2510862.0/APX
.DELDT 04/17/25
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL Brandon_Ramirez@nps.gov