946
FNUS73 KAPX 230717
FWSAPX

Spot Forecast for Tawas 5...USFS
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
317 AM EDT Wed Apr 23 2025

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1500 EDT on April 23.
If conditions become unrepresentative... contact the National Weather
Service.

Please contact our office at (989)732-9306, if you have questions
or concerns with this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...Low pressure will track thru the Arrowhead of
Minnesota and Lake Superior...reaching southeast Ontario by late
tonight. Chances of showers and thunderstorms will increase later
this afternoon and tonight as this system tracks north of Michigan.
Minimum relative humidities will drop to 35 to 45 percent this
afternoon. High temperatures will warm into the mid 60s to around
70 degrees. Winds will be from the south-southeast at 10 to 15 mph.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (55-65 percent). Slight chance of
                    rain showers late in the afternoon, then chance
                    of rain showers late in the afternoon.
Chance of thunder...1 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 60.
Min humidity........45 percent.
20-foot winds.......East winds 6 to 7 mph.
Transport winds.....East around 10 mph.
Mixing height.......1200-1900 ft AGL.
Ventilation index...Poor to fair (128.0-193.0).

TIME (EDT)      3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........47  52  68
Weather cov.....SCH SCH CHC
Weather type....RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........
Chc of thdr (%).0   0   0
Temp............59  59  59
RH..............47  45  45
20 ft wind dir..E   E   E
20 ft wind spd..8   8   8
20 ft wind gust.14  14  14
Mix hgt (kft)...1.9 1.6 1.2
Transp wind dir.E   E   E
Transp wind spd.10  10  10
Vrate kt-ft.....193 169 128
Ventrate Cat....FR  FR  PR

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (60-70 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers through the night. Slight chance of
                    thunderstorms early in the evening.
Chance of thunder...21 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 43.
Max humidity........98 percent.
20-foot winds.......East winds around 5 mph early in the evening
                    becoming light, then becoming southwest around
                    5 mph overnight becoming light becoming
                    southwest around 5 mph after 3 am. Gusty and
                    erratic winds expected near thunderstorms early
                    in the evening.
Transport winds.....East 6 to 9 mph shifting to the southwest 8 to
                    9 mph overnight, then shifting to the west
                    around 9 mph after 3 am.
Mixing height.......300-1200 ft AGL.
Ventilation index...Poor (18.0).

TIME (EDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........62  73  72  77  73  69  68  60  55  60  60  67
Weather cov.....CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
Weather type....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........        SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
Chc of thdr (%).0   0   20  20  20  20  20  20  20  20  20  20
Temp............57  54  52  49  48  47  46  46  46  46  46  46
RH..............49  59  63  71  77  79  86  86  89  93  96  96
20 ft wind dir..E   E   E   E   E   E   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
20 ft wind spd..6   6   6   5   5   5   6   6   6   6   6   6
20 ft wind gust.12  12  12  8   8   8   9   9   9   9   9   9
Mix hgt (kft)...1.2 0.7 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3
Transp wind dir.E   E   E   E   SE  SE  SE  S   S   SW  W   W
Transp wind spd.8   8   7   9   7   6   6   8   9   9   9   9
Vrate kt-ft.....97  59  29  34  22  20  18  21  24  32  29  32
Ventrate Cat....PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR

.THURSDAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (45-55 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers early in the morning.
Chance of thunder...15 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 66.
Min humidity........57 percent.
20-foot winds.......Light winds becoming east 6 to 7 mph late in
                    the afternoon. Gusty and erratic winds expected
                    near thunderstorms early in the morning.
Transport winds.....Northwest 8 to 12 mph shifting to the east
                    around 9 mph late in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......300-1800 ft AGL increasing to 1500-2900 ft AGL
                    in the afternoon.
Ventilation index...Poor to fair (23.0-251.0).

TIME (EDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........69     64     58     46     35     31
Weather cov.....CHANCE
Weather type....RNSHWR NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........S CHC
Chc of thdr (%).20     10     10     0      10     10
Temp............47     48     57     63     65     64
RH..............97     94     84     70     63     57
20 ft wind dir..W      W      W      NW     NW     NE
20 ft wind spd..5      5      5      5      5      8
20 ft wind gust.9      9      12     9      9      10
Mix hgt (ft)....300    400    1200   2400   2900   2100
Transport wind..W 8    W 8    NW 9   NW 9   N 8    NE 9
Vrate kt-ft.....28     34     111    225    233    178
Ventrate Cat....POOR   POOR   POOR   FAIR   FAIR   FAIR

$$
Forecaster...MLR
Requested by...Corey Smith
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2511409.0/APX
.DELDT 04/23/25
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL corey.smith@usda.gov