Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
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053 FNUS73 KAPX 280943 FWSAPX Spot Forecast for CountyLine Unit 14 RX...USFS National Weather Service Gaylord MI 543 AM EDT Fri Jun 28 2024 Forecast is based on ignition time of 0900 EDT on June 28. If conditions become unrepresentative... contact the National Weather Service. Please contact our office at (989)732-9306, if you have questions or concerns with this forecast. .DISCUSSION...Rain-free weather will persist through this morning as winds gradually increase out of the south, strengthening to around 10 mph at the surface with gusts to 20-25 mph possible at times into this evening. Chances for light showers will return to the area of the burn site this afternoon, but any falling precipitation will struggle to reach the ground initially with some relatively dry low- level air in place. Better chances for heavier showers are expected this evening and tonight. Minimum RHs in the 45-50 percent range are expected during the late morning/early afternoon hours ahead of the previously mentioned rain chances moving in. .REST OF TODAY... Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Isolated showers late in the afternoon. Max temperature.....Around 72. Min humidity........46 percent. 20-foot winds.......South winds 6 to 8 mph with gusts to around 23 mph. Transport winds.....South 15 to 20 mph. Mixing height.......1300-3100 ft AGL. Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated fire growth. Ventilation index...Fair to excellent (211.0-600.0). TIME (EDT) 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM Sky (%).........66 68 65 70 74 82 87 87 87 Weather cov..... ISO ISO Weather type.... RW RW Tstm cov........ Temp............60 62 63 65 66 67 68 67 68 RH..............58 54 52 46 47 50 54 61 63 20 ft wind dir..S S S S S S S S S 20 ft wind spd..9 9 9 10 10 10 10 10 10 20 ft wind gust.23 23 23 22 22 22 22 22 22 Mix hgt (kft)...1.3 1.6 1.8 2.6 3.0 3.1 3.0 2.6 2.1 Haines index....4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 Transp wind dir.S S S S S S S S S Transp wind spd.16 15 17 17 18 20 20 17 20 Vrate kt-ft.....211 243 313 444 560 600 595 448 411 Ventrate Cat....FR FR GD GD GD EXL GD GD GD .TONIGHT... Sky/weather.........Cloudy (85-95 percent). Numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms in the evening, then showers and scattered thunderstorms overnight. Min temperature.....Around 64. Max humidity........93 percent. 20-foot winds.......South winds 6 to 8 mph. Gusts up to 21 mph early in the evening then 20 mph after 3 am. Gusty and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms late in the evening. Gusty and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms overnight. Transport winds.....South 14 to 18 mph. Mixing height.......600-1300 ft AGL. Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential for large plume dominated fire growth. Ventilation index...Poor to fair (90.0-246.0). TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM Sky (%).........87 90 92 94 95 95 93 91 90 90 92 93 Weather cov.....ISO ISO SCT SCT SCT NUM NUM NUM DEF DEF DEF NUM Weather type....RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW Tstm cov........ ISO ISO ISO SCT SCT SCT SCT Temp............71 68 68 67 66 66 66 65 66 65 65 66 RH..............59 68 70 78 84 87 87 93 90 90 93 90 20 ft wind dir..S S S S S S S S S S S S 20 ft wind spd..10 10 10 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 20 ft wind gust.21 21 21 18 18 18 18 18 18 20 20 20 Mix hgt (kft)...1.3 1.1 1.2 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 Haines index....4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 Transp wind dir.S S S S S S S S SW SW S S Transp wind spd.18 16 17 16 16 14 14 15 15 16 15 15 Vrate kt-ft.....246 182 199 127 131 98 109 98 90 101 106 106 Ventrate Cat....FR FR FR PR FR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR .SATURDAY... Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent) then becoming mostly sunny (35-45 percent). Numerous showers in the morning. Scattered thunderstorms through the day. Chance of showers in the afternoon. Max temperature.....Around 80. Min humidity........63 percent. 20-foot winds.......Southwest winds 7 to 8 mph shifting to the west around 8 mph late in the afternoon. Gusts up to 22 mph. Gusty and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms in the morning. Gusty and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms late in the morning. Transport winds.....Southwest 15 to 17 mph shifting to the west 18 to 21 mph late in the afternoon. Mixing height.......600-2500 ft AGL increasing to 3400-4900 ft AGL late in the afternoon. Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume dominated fire growth. Ventilation index...Poor to good (104.0-430.0) increasing to excellent (629.0) late in the afternoon. TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM Sky (%).........94 93 91 79 57 38 Weather cov.....NUMRUS CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR Tstm cov........SCTTRD CHANCE CHANCE S CHC CHANCE CHANCE Temp............65 67 70 74 76 79 RH..............92 92 90 82 75 65 20 ft wind dir..SW SW SW W W W 20 ft wind spd..9 9 10 10 10 10 20 ft wind gust.22 22 21 21 21 22 Mix hgt (ft)....600 1000 1600 2000 2500 4400 Haines index....3 3 3 3 3 3 Transport wind..SW 17 S 15 SW 16 SW 16 W 17 W 20 Vrate kt-ft.....104 153 261 333 430 870 Ventrate Cat....POOR FAIR FAIR GOOD GOOD EXNT $$ Forecaster...DJC Requested by...Ben Wagner Type of request...PRESCRIBED .TAG 2416827.1/APX .DELDT 06/28/24 .FormatterVersion 2.0.0 .EMAIL benjamin.wagner1@usda.gov