Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
458
FNUS73 KAPX 151155
FWSAPX
Spot Forecast for S. Britt Rd Piles...USFS
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
655 AM EST Wed Jan 15 2025
Forecast is based on ignition time of 1000 EST on January 15.
If conditions become unrepresentative... contact the National Weather
Service.
Please contact our office at (989)732-9306, if you have questions
or concerns with this forecast.
.DISCUSSION...
Light snow showers will persist across parts of northern Michigan
into early afternoon, and are expected to largely stay northwest of
the site. Current west-southwest winds will turn to southwest
through this morning/early afternoon w/ 20 ft wind speeds between 5-
10 mph and gusts to 15-20 mph into this evening. Temperatures in the
low 20s are expected this afternoon with wind chill temperatures in
the low teens and upper single digits.
.REST OF TODAY...
Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (60-70 percent).
Max temperature.....Around 23.
Min humidity........65 percent.
20-foot winds.......West winds 6 to 8 mph.
Transport winds.....West 13 to 17 mph.
Mixing height.......1500-3300 ft AGL decreasing to 1000 ft AGL late
in the afternoon.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
dominated fire growth.
Ventilation index...Fair to good (130.0-566.0).
TIME (EST) 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........56 63 75 78 70 61 48 47
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............18 19 21 22 22 22 22 20
RH..............77 77 68 65 68 65 65 71
20 ft wind dir..W W W W W SW SW SW
20 ft wind spd..9 9 10 10 10 10 10 10
20 ft wind gust.16 16 17 17 17 17 17 17
Mix hgt (kft)...1.5 2.3 3.0 3.2 3.3 3.2 2.9 1.0
Haines index....3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
Transp wind dir.W W W W W W W W
Transp wind spd.14 15 17 17 17 17 17 13
Vrate kt-ft.....207 342 512 553 566 557 503 130
Ventrate Cat....FR GD GD GD GD GD GD FR
.TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (40-50 percent) then becoming
mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Scattered snow
showers overnight.
Min temperature.....Around 15.
Max humidity........98 percent.
20-foot winds.......Southwest winds 7 to 10 mph.
Transport winds.....Southwest 13 to 20 mph.
Mixing height.......500-900 ft AGL.
Haines Index........2 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
plume dominated fire growth.
Ventilation index...Poor to fair (66.0-169.0).
TIME (EST) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........42 50 63 77 85 88 91 93 92 95 95 93
Weather cov..... SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT
Weather type.... SW SW SW SW SW
Tstm cov........
Temp............19 18 17 17 17 18 18 18 18 18 18 18
RH..............74 77 80 84 84 80 80 80 80 84 84 88
20 ft wind dir..SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW
20 ft wind spd..10 10 10 12 12 12 12 12 12 10 10 10
20 ft wind gust.22 22 22 21 21 21 21 21 21 20 20 20
Mix hgt (kft)...0.7 0.6 0.8 0.9 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.5
Haines index....3 4 4 4 4 4 4 2 2 2 2 2
Transp wind dir.SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW
Transp wind spd.14 15 17 20 18 18 18 17 16 15 14 13
Vrate kt-ft.....94 87 140 169 135 116 130 127 106 90 83 66
Ventrate Cat....PR PR FR FR FR PR FR PR PR PR PR PR
.THURSDAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Scattered snow
showers early in the morning, then snow showers
likely in the morning.
Max temperature.....Around 32.
Min humidity........75 percent.
20-foot winds.......Southwest winds around 7 mph shifting to the
west around 8 mph in the afternoon.
Transport winds.....Southwest 10 to 13 mph shifting to the
northwest 16 to 21 mph in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......400-2100 ft AGL increasing to 2300-2900 ft AGL
in the afternoon.
Haines Index........2 to 3 or very low potential for large plume
dominated fire growth.
Ventilation index...Poor to good (51.0-524.0) increasing to good to
excellent (439.0-608.0) late in the afternoon.
TIME (EST) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM
Sky (%).........93 84 75 72 73 80
Weather cov.....SCTTRD LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY S CHC S CHC
Weather type....SNSHWR SNSHWR SNSHWR SNSHWR SNSHWR SNSHWR
Tstm cov........
Temp............18 18 21 28 31 31
RH..............88 98 93 79 75 77
20 ft wind dir..SW SW SW W W W
20 ft wind spd..8 8 9 10 10 10
20 ft wind gust.15 15 17 20 20 20
Mix hgt (ft)....500 900 900 2100 2900 2700
Haines index....2 3 3 3 3 3
Transport wind..SW 12 S 12 W 10 W 16 NW 21 NW 20
Vrate kt-ft.....60 109 95 342 608 534
Ventrate Cat....POOR POOR POOR GOOD EXNT GOOD
$$
Forecaster...DJC
Requested by...Kyle Andree
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2500637.0/APX
.DELDT 01/15/25
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL kyle.andree@usda.gov