210
FNUS53 KAPX 161858
FWFAPX

Fire Weather Planning Forecast for northern Lower Michigan
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
258 PM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025

...Showers Tonight into Friday, More Rain This Weekend...

.DISCUSSION...
Showers will develop overnight and continue into the first half of
Friday. Amounts of a quarter to perhaps half an inch will be
possible, especially closer to the Tip of the Mitt. Consequently,
expect poor ventilation and mixing heights (~1-2 kft) Friday
afternoon. Southerly winds will be gusty, especially during the
afternoon hours as precipitation wanes, with values around 20 to
25 mph. Afternoon humidities will be above 40 percent though,
increasing this weekend as moisture intrudes from the west with
wetting rains possible.

MIZ016-017-021>023-099-170915-
Emmet...Cheboygan...Charlevoix...Antrim...Otsego and Montmorency
Counties-
258 PM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (40-50 percent) until 2400, then
                    mostly cloudy (80-90 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers after 2400.
Min Temperature.....42-47...except around 50 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......13 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........89-94 percent.
   24 HR Trend......7 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Light winds becoming south around 5 mph after
                    midnight. Gusts up to 20 mph.
Vent Rate...........Poor (19).
Mixing Height.......400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southeast around 6 mph shifting to the south
                    around 9 mph after midnight.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.09- 0.27 in.
Chance of Thunder...2 percent.

.FRIDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (80-90 percent). Rain showers
                    likely until 1200.
Max Temperature.....65-70.
   24 HR Trend......4 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........51-56 percent.
   24 HR Trend......20 percent wetter...except 13 percent wetter
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 23 mph.
Vent Rate...........Fair (275).
Mixing Height.......1500 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South 12 to 18 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.11- 0.37 in.
Chance of Thunder...4 percent.

.FRIDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers until 2400, then rain showers likely.
Min Temperature.....51-56...except 58-63 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......7 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........88-93 percent.
   24 HR Trend......Unchanged.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds around 10 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 27 mph.
Vent Rate...........Poor (86).
Mixing Height.......500 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest around 18 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.03- 0.19 in.
Chance of Thunder...10 percent.

.SATURDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Rain showers
                    likely.
Max Temperature.....64-69.
   24 HR Trend......Unchanged.
Min Humidity........64-69 percent.
   24 HR Trend......17 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 23 mph.
Vent Rate...........Fair (279).
Mixing Height.......1800 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest around 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.19- 0.41 in.
Chance of Thunder...15 percent.


$$

MIZ018-024-030-036-042-170915-
Presque Isle...Alpena...Alcona...Iosco and Arenac
Counties...including Eastern Huron NF-
258 PM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (35-45 percent) until 2400, then
                    mostly cloudy (65-75 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers after 2400.
Min Temperature.....41-46...except 48-53 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......10 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........91-96 percent...except 81-86 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......3 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Light winds.
Vent Rate...........Poor (24).
Mixing Height.......400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South 6 to 9 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.19 in .
Chance of Thunder...1 percent.

.FRIDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Cloudy (85-95 percent). Chance of rain showers.
Max Temperature.....61-66...except 53-58 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......1 degree warmer.
Min Humidity........55-60 percent.
   24 HR Trend......16 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 23 mph.
Vent Rate...........Fair (222).
Mixing Height.......1300 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South 12 to 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.07- 0.37 in.
Chance of Thunder...3 percent.

.FRIDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers after 2400.
Min Temperature.....50-55.
   24 HR Trend......7 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........81-86 percent...except 69-74 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......16 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds around 10 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 23 mph.
Vent Rate...........Poor (81).
Mixing Height.......500 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South around 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.01- 0.13 in.
Chance of Thunder...8 percent.

.SATURDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers until 1200Rain showers likely after
                    1200.
Max Temperature.....65-70...except 57-62 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......4 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........61-66 percent.
   24 HR Trend......4 percent wetter...except 1 percent drier along
                    the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds around 10 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 23 mph.
Vent Rate...........Fair (294).
Mixing Height.......1700 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest around 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.15- 0.42 in.
Chance of Thunder...19 percent.


$$

MIZ020-025>027-170915-
Leelanau...Benzie...Grand Traverse and Kalkaska
Counties...including the Sleeping Bear Dunes NL-
258 PM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (40-50 percent) until 2400, then
                    cloudy (85-95 percent). Chance of rain showers
                    after 2400.
Min Temperature.....43-48...except 52-57 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......19 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........83-88 percent.
   24 HR Trend......17 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Light winds becoming south around 5 mph after
                    midnight. Gusts up to 20 mph.
Vent Rate...........Poor (14).
Mixing Height.......400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South 6 to 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.05- 0.21 in.
Chance of Thunder...5 percent.

.FRIDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (80-90 percent). Rain showers
                    likely until 1200.
Max Temperature.....65-70.
   24 HR Trend......5 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........48-53 percent.
   24 HR Trend......19 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 27 mph.
Vent Rate...........Good (302).
Mixing Height.......1500 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South 15 to 21 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.03- 0.15 in.
Chance of Thunder...7 percent.

.FRIDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers.
Min Temperature.....51-56...except 59-64 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......7 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........89-94 percent.
   24 HR Trend......4 percent wetter...except 10 percent wetter
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds around 10 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 32 mph.
Vent Rate...........Poor (118).
Mixing Height.......600 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South around 18 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.05- 0.24 in.
Chance of Thunder...12 percent.

.SATURDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (80-90 percent). Rain showers
                    likely.
Max Temperature.....62-67.
   24 HR Trend......3 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........64-69 percent.
   24 HR Trend......15 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds around 5 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 27 mph.
Vent Rate...........Fair (246).
Mixing Height.......1500 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest around 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.24- 0.35 in.
Chance of Thunder...14 percent.


$$

MIZ031>033-170915-
Manistee...Wexford and Missaukee Counties...Including the
northern quarter of Manistee NF-
258 PM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (40-50 percent) until 2400, then
                    mostly cloudy (80-90 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers after 2400.
Min Temperature.....44-49.
   24 HR Trend......15 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........78-83 percent.
   24 HR Trend......20 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Light winds becoming southeast around 5 mph
                    after midnight. Gusts up to 20 mph.
Vent Rate...........Poor (16).
Mixing Height.......400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South 6 to 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.01- 0.11 in.
Chance of Thunder...4 percent.

.FRIDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (80-90 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers until 1200.
Max Temperature.....65-70.
   24 HR Trend......3 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........48-53 percent.
   24 HR Trend......17 percent wetter...except 10 percent wetter
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 23 mph.
Vent Rate...........Good (326).
Mixing Height.......1600 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South 15 to 18 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.10 in .
Chance of Thunder...6 percent.

.FRIDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers until 2400, then rain showers likely.
Min Temperature.....52-57.
   24 HR Trend......3 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........89-94 percent.
   24 HR Trend......16 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds around 10 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 23 mph.
Vent Rate...........Poor (96).
Mixing Height.......500 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South around 18 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.03- 0.24 in.
Chance of Thunder...13 percent.

.SATURDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Cloudy (85-95 percent). Chance of thunderstorms
                    until 1200. Rain showers likely.
Max Temperature.....63-68.
   24 HR Trend......1 degree cooler.
Min Humidity........64-69 percent...except 73-78 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......17 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds around 5 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 23 mph.
Vent Rate...........Fair (259).
Mixing Height.......1600 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest around 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.24- 0.38 in.
Chance of Thunder...15 percent.


$$

MIZ028-029-034-035-041-170915-
Crawford...Oscoda...Roscommon...Ogemaw and Gladwin
Counties...including Western Huron NF-
258 PM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (35-45 percent) until 2400, then
                    mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Slight chance of
                    rain showers after 2400.
Min Temperature.....41-46.
   24 HR Trend......13 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........89-94 percent.
   24 HR Trend......7 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Light winds becoming south around 5 mph after
                    midnight.
Vent Rate...........Poor (21).
Mixing Height.......400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South 6 to 9 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.17 in .
Chance of Thunder...1 percent.

.FRIDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Cloudy (85-95 percent). Rain showers likely
                    until 1200, then slight chance of rain showers.
Max Temperature.....61-66.
   24 HR Trend......Unchanged.
Min Humidity........50-55 percent.
   24 HR Trend......23 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 23 mph.
Vent Rate...........Fair (277).
Mixing Height.......1600 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South 12 to 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.05- 0.23 in.
Chance of Thunder...4 percent.

.FRIDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers after 2400.
Min Temperature.....50-55.
   24 HR Trend......8 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........81-86 percent.
   24 HR Trend......3 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 23 mph.
Vent Rate...........Poor (78).
Mixing Height.......500 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South around 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.01- 0.12 in.
Chance of Thunder...6 percent.

.SATURDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Rain showers
                    likely. Chance of thunderstorms after 1200.
Max Temperature.....65-70.
   24 HR Trend......2 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........59-64 percent.
   24 HR Trend......8 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 18 mph.
Vent Rate...........Fair (292).
Mixing Height.......1600 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 15 to 18 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.19- 0.33 in.
Chance of Thunder...21 percent.


$$

.EXTENDED...

.SUNDAY...SHOWERS AND CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE UPPER
40S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE
UPPER 30S. HIGHS AROUND 60. WEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SHOWERS LIKELY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S.
HIGHS IN THE MID 50S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SHOWERS LIKELY. LOWS IN THE UPPER
30S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE
UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S. WEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.

$$

JLD