469
FNUS53 KAPX 161825
FWFAPX

Fire Weather Planning Forecast for northern Lower Michigan
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
225 PM EDT Fri May 16 2025

...Elevated Fire Danger this Afternoon; Showers and Storms Tonight...

.DISCUSSION... Warm and dry conditions prevail through the rest of
the say amid a breezy sothwesterly flow. Some gusts of 25+ mph
area anticipated through the evening, with lake breezes advecting
inland from Lake Huron. Elevated fire danger will continue into
the evening. Clouds increase tonight and showers / storms build
once again across northern Michigan, spreading in coverage from
west to east with time. Some storms may contain damaging winds
with some hail. Conditions turn cooler for the weekend with highs
in the 50s and 60s, with shower chances on Saturday. This will
lead to an overall lower risk of fire danger through the weekend.


MIZ016-017-021>023-099-170815-
Emmet...Cheboygan...Charlevoix...Antrim...Otsego and Montmorency
Counties-
225 PM EDT Fri May 16 2025

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (60-70 percent). Rain showers and
                    scattered thunderstorms.
Min Temperature.....50-55.
   24 HR Trend......6 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........91-96 percent.
   24 HR Trend......7 percent wetter...except unchanged along the
                    coast.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 27 mph.
Vent Rate...........Poor (58).
Mixing Height.......500 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South 12 to 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.25- 0.67 in.
Chance of Thunder...54 percent.

.SATURDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Patchy fog until
                    1200. Isolated thunderstorms until 1200.
                    Scattered rain showers.
Max Temperature.....57-62...except 48-53 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......24 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........57-62 percent.
   24 HR Trend......37 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......West winds around 10 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 27 mph.
Vent Rate...........Good (386).
Mixing Height.......1900 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West 18 to 21 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.04- 0.24 in.
Chance of Thunder...18 percent.

.SATURDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers.
Min Temperature.....41-46.
   24 HR Trend......9 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........92-97 percent...except 81-86 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......4 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......West winds around 10 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 27 mph.
Vent Rate...........Fair (160).
Mixing Height.......1000 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northwest 18 to 21 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.06 in .
Chance of Thunder...3 percent.

.SUNDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent).
Max Temperature.....54-59...except 43-48 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......1 degree cooler...except 6 degrees cooler near
                    the coast.
Min Humidity........47-52 percent.
   24 HR Trend......10 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Northwest winds around 5 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 23 mph.
Vent Rate...........Good (368).
Mixing Height.......3000 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....North 12 to 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.01 in .
Chance of Thunder...2 percent.


$$

MIZ018-024-030-036-042-170815-
Presque Isle...Alpena...Alcona...Iosco and Arenac
Counties...including Eastern Huron NF-
225 PM EDT Fri May 16 2025

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (50-60 percent). Rain showers and
                    scattered thunderstorms.
Min Temperature.....51-56.
   24 HR Trend......5 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........89-94 percent...except 78-83 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......3 percent wetter...except 4 percent drier along
                    the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 23 mph.
Vent Rate...........Poor (60).
Mixing Height.......500 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South around 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.14- 0.81 in.
Chance of Thunder...47 percent.

.SATURDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Isolated
                    thunderstorms until 1200. Scattered rain
                    showers.
Max Temperature.....58-63.
   24 HR Trend......26 degrees cooler...except 16 degrees cooler
                    near the coast.
Min Humidity........55-60 percent.
   24 HR Trend......33 percent wetter...except 26 percent wetter
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......West winds around 10 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 27 mph.
Vent Rate...........Good (559).
Mixing Height.......2600 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West 18 to 21 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.04- 0.32 in.
Chance of Thunder...17 percent.

.SATURDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent). Scattered rain
                    showers.
Min Temperature.....43-48.
   24 HR Trend......9 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........91-96 percent...except 81-86 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......7 percent drier...except unchanged along the
                    coast.
20-Foot Winds.......West winds around 10 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 27 mph.
Vent Rate...........Fair (213).
Mixing Height.......1100 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West around 21 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.03 in .
Chance of Thunder...7 percent.

.SUNDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (60-70 percent).
Max Temperature.....59-64...except 44-49 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......3 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........47-52 percent.
   24 HR Trend......8 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Northwest winds around 10 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 23 mph.
Vent Rate...........Good (424).
Mixing Height.......3300 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....North 12 to 18 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.
Chance of Thunder...3 percent.


$$

MIZ020-025>027-170815-
Leelanau...Benzie...Grand Traverse and Kalkaska
Counties...including the Sleeping Bear Dunes NL-
225 PM EDT Fri May 16 2025

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent). Rain showers and
                    numerous thunderstorms until 2400, then
                    numerous rain showers and scattered
                    thunderstorms.
Min Temperature.....47-52.
   24 HR Trend......7 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........95-100 percent...except 86-91 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......1 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 27 mph.
Vent Rate...........Poor (61).
Mixing Height.......500 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South around 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.29- 0.78 in.
Chance of Thunder...59 percent.

.SATURDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Patchy fog until
                    1200. Scattered rain showers.
Max Temperature.....54-59...except 43-48 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......25 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........63-68 percent.
   24 HR Trend......39 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......West winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional gusts up
                    to 27 mph.
Vent Rate...........Good (365).
Mixing Height.......1700 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West 18 to 21 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.10 in .
Chance of Thunder...6 percent.

.SATURDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Scattered rain
                    showers until 2400.
Min Temperature.....39-44.
   24 HR Trend......9 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........92-97 percent...except 81-86 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......5 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Northwest winds around 10 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 27 mph.
Vent Rate...........Fair (185).
Mixing Height.......1100 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northwest 18 to 21 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.07 in .
Chance of Thunder...3 percent.

.SUNDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (55-65 percent).
Max Temperature.....50-55...except 41-46 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......4 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........54-59 percent.
   24 HR Trend......11 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Northwest winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 23 mph.
Vent Rate...........Good (342).
Mixing Height.......2500 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....North around 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.01 in .
Chance of Thunder...1 percent.


$$

MIZ031>033-170815-
Manistee...Wexford and Missaukee Counties...Including the
northern quarter of Manistee NF-
225 PM EDT Fri May 16 2025

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (55-65 percent). Rain showers and
                    numerous thunderstorms until 2400, then
                    scattered showers and thunderstorms.
Min Temperature.....47-52.
   24 HR Trend......7 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........95-100 percent.
   24 HR Trend......Unchanged.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 27 mph.
Vent Rate...........Poor (73).
Mixing Height.......600 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South around 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.23- 0.68 in.
Chance of Thunder...60 percent.

.SATURDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Numerous rain
                    showers.
Max Temperature.....54-59.
   24 HR Trend......25 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........63-68 percent.
   24 HR Trend......39 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......West winds around 10 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 27 mph.
Vent Rate...........Good (419).
Mixing Height.......1900 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West around 21 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.03- 0.16 in.
Chance of Thunder...7 percent.

.SATURDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Scattered rain
                    showers until 2400.
Min Temperature.....Around 41.
   24 HR Trend......8 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........91-96 percent.
   24 HR Trend......6 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Northwest winds around 10 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 27 mph.
Vent Rate...........Fair (206).
Mixing Height.......1200 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northwest 18 to 21 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.07 in .
Chance of Thunder...2 percent.

.SUNDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent) until 1200, then
                    mostly sunny (45-55 percent).
Max Temperature.....54-59...except around 51 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......2 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........49-54 percent.
   24 HR Trend......13 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Northwest winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 23 mph.
Vent Rate...........Good (376).
Mixing Height.......2800 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....North around 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.
Chance of Thunder...1 percent.


$$

MIZ028-029-034-035-041-170815-
Crawford...Oscoda...Roscommon...Ogemaw and Gladwin
Counties...including Western Huron NF-
225 PM EDT Fri May 16 2025

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (50-60 percent). Scattered rain
                    showers until 2400. Numerous thunderstorms.
                    Numerous rain showers after 2400.
Min Temperature.....50-55.
   24 HR Trend......7 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........92-97 percent.
   24 HR Trend......1 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 23 mph.
Vent Rate...........Poor (62).
Mixing Height.......500 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South around 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.24- 0.78 in.
Chance of Thunder...60 percent.

.SATURDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Scattered rain
                    showers.
Max Temperature.....57-62.
   24 HR Trend......25 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........57-62 percent.
   24 HR Trend......36 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......West winds around 10 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 27 mph.
Vent Rate...........Good (571).
Mixing Height.......2600 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West around 21 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.02- 0.14 in.
Chance of Thunder...11 percent.

.SATURDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (60-70 percent). Scattered rain
                    showers until 2400.
Min Temperature.....42-47.
   24 HR Trend......9 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........91-96 percent.
   24 HR Trend......4 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......West winds around 10 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 27 mph.
Vent Rate...........Fair (202).
Mixing Height.......1100 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northwest around 21 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.03 in .
Chance of Thunder...5 percent.

.SUNDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (55-65 percent).
Max Temperature.....59-64.
   24 HR Trend......Unchanged.
Min Humidity........47-52 percent.
   24 HR Trend......11 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Northwest winds around 5 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 23 mph.
Vent Rate...........Good (442).
Mixing Height.......3700 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northwest 12 to 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.01 in .
Chance of Thunder...3 percent.


$$

.EXTENDED...

.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50S. NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. AREAS OF FROST AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN
THE MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S. NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND
10 MPH.
.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER
30S. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S. NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE LOWER
40S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S. NORTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE LOWER
40S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S. NORTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.

$$

HAD