740
FNUS53 KAPX 051830
FWFAPX

Fire Weather Planning Forecast for northern Lower Michigan
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
230 PM EDT Sat Oct 5 2024

...Cooler and More Damp Sunday; Best Chance at Appreciable Rain over
the Next Week is Tonight...

.DISCUSSION... Still expecting increasing winds as we head into this
Saturday evening, occasionally gusting over 35mph out of the S to SSE.
Cold frontal passage will bring about a chance for showers and thunder
later tonight. This particular chance of rain will likely be the best
shot at seeing appreciable rainfall over the course of the next week,
particularly across the Huron National Forest. Following the passage
of the cold front, continued breezy conditions (west winds 15-20mph,
with the occasional 30mph gust) expected to be the rule, though it will
be a bit more damp with some lake induced showers later in the day across
northwest lower Michigan, including parts of Manistee National Forest.
Rainfall with these showers will be on the lighter side, likely on the
order of 0.10" or less. Surface temperatures will be in the 60s for the
most part on Sunday, with lower 60s in northwest lower and upper 60s to
near 70 closer to Saginaw Bay up to Alpena. Minimum RHs on Sunday largely
in the 40s, though some 30s are possible across Huron National Forest as
downsloping flow leads to subtly drier air. Looking ahead, much of the same
is expected... somewhat breezy with lake induced showers across northwest
lower Monday and Tuesday, though it will be a touch chillier with highs in
the 50s Monday and Tuesday.


MIZ016-017-021>023-099-060815-
Emmet...Cheboygan...Charlevoix...Antrim...Otsego and Montmorency
Counties-
230 PM EDT Sat Oct 5 2024

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (40-50 percent) until 2400, then
                    mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms after 2400.
Min Temperature.....53-58.
   24 HR Trend......22 degrees warmer...except 17 degrees warmer
                    near the coast.
Max Humidity........79-84 percent.
   24 HR Trend......12 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds around 10 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 36 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (128).
Mixing Height.......600 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South 21 to 24 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.07- 0.24 in.

.SUNDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (40-50 percent). Slight chance of
                    thunderstorms until 1200. Chance of rain
                    showers.
Max Temperature.....62-67.
   24 HR Trend......7 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........41-46 percent...except 50-55 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......21 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......West winds around 10 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 27 mph.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (1555).
Mixing Height.......5100 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West 21 to 30 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.04- 0.15 in.

.SUNDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers.
Min Temperature.....41-46...except 48-53 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......12 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........89-94 percent...except 76-81 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......10 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Northwest winds around 10 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 32 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Good (452).
Mixing Height.......2300 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northwest around 24 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.08 in .

.MONDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (35-45 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers until 1200.
Max Temperature.....56-61.
   24 HR Trend......6 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........36-41 percent...except 46-51 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......3 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Northwest winds around 10 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 27 mph.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (783).
Mixing Height.......4500 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northwest 18 to 21 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.01 in .


$$

MIZ018-024-030-036-042-060815-
Presque Isle...Alpena...Alcona...Iosco and Arenac
Counties...including Eastern Huron NF-
230 PM EDT Sat Oct 5 2024

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (35-45 percent) until 2400, then
                    mostly cloudy (55-65 percent). Chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms after 2400.
Min Temperature.....53-58.
   24 HR Trend......21 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........85-90 percent...except 75-80 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......17 percent drier...except 8 percent drier along
                    the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds around 10 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 27 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (99).
Mixing Height.......500 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South 18 to 24 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.01- 0.17 in.

.SUNDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (45-55 percent). Chance of
                    thunderstorms until 1200. Chance of rain
                    showers.
Max Temperature.....66-71...except 59-64 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......1 degree cooler.
Min Humidity........32-37 percent.
   24 HR Trend......7 percent wetter...except 7 percent drier along
                    the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......West winds around 10 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 27 mph.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (1832).
Mixing Height.......6000 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest around 18 mph increasing to west
                    around 30 mph in the afternoon.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.10 in .

.SUNDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (55-65 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers.
Min Temperature.....40-45...except 48-53 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......12 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........88-93 percent...except 74-79 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......3 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Northwest winds around 10 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 32 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Good (353).
Mixing Height.......1900 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northwest 21 to 24 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.05 in .

.MONDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (30-40 percent).
Max Temperature.....58-63.
   24 HR Trend......8 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........34-39 percent.
   24 HR Trend......4 percent drier...except 2 percent wetter along
                    the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Northwest winds around 10 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 27 mph.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (1010).
Mixing Height.......5800 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northwest around 21 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.01 in .


$$

MIZ020-025>027-060815-
Leelanau...Benzie...Grand Traverse and Kalkaska
Counties...including the Sleeping Bear Dunes NL-
230 PM EDT Sat Oct 5 2024

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (40-50 percent) until 2400, then
                    mostly cloudy (65-75 percent). Chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms after 2400.
Min Temperature.....52-57...except 59-64 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......20 degrees warmer...except 14 degrees warmer
                    near the coast.
Max Humidity........77-82 percent...except 68-73 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......19 percent drier...except 14 percent drier
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds around 10 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 32 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (112).
Mixing Height.......500 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South 21 to 24 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.05- 0.23 in.

.SUNDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (40-50 percent). Slight chance of
                    rain showers after 1200.
Max Temperature.....60-65.
   24 HR Trend......8 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........46-51 percent.
   24 HR Trend......19 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......West winds around 10 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 32 mph.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (1399).
Mixing Height.......5000 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West 21 to 27 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.02- 0.14 in.

.SUNDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (60-70 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers.
Min Temperature.....40-45...except 49-54 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......12 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........86-91 percent...except 70-75 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......8 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Northwest winds around 10 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 27 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Good (572).
Mixing Height.......3000 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northwest 24 to 27 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.07 in .

.MONDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (35-45 percent).
Max Temperature.....58-63.
   24 HR Trend......4 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........40-45 percent.
   24 HR Trend......5 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Northwest winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 23 mph.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (625).
Mixing Height.......4000 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northwest 15 to 18 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.01 in .


$$

MIZ031>033-060815-
Manistee...Wexford and Missaukee Counties...Including the
northern quarter of Manistee NF-
230 PM EDT Sat Oct 5 2024

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (30-40 percent) until 2400, then
                    mostly cloudy (65-75 percent). Chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms after 2400.
Min Temperature.....52-57.
   24 HR Trend......22 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........78-83 percent...except 65-70 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......19 percent drier...except 25 percent drier
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds around 10 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 27 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (103).
Mixing Height.......500 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South around 21 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.02- 0.14 in.

.SUNDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (40-50 percent). Slight chance of
                    rain showers after 1200.
Max Temperature.....61-66.
   24 HR Trend......7 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........43-48 percent.
   24 HR Trend......18 percent wetter...except 12 percent wetter
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......West winds around 10 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 27 mph.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (1395).
Mixing Height.......4900 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West around 18 mph increasing to around 30 mph
                    in the afternoon.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.07 in .

.SUNDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (60-70 percent).
Min Temperature.....40-45.
   24 HR Trend......13 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........86-91 percent...except 72-77 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......9 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Northwest winds around 10 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 27 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Good (507).
Mixing Height.......2800 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northwest 21 to 24 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.02 in .

.MONDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (35-45 percent).
Max Temperature.....57-62.
   24 HR Trend......4 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........39-44 percent.
   24 HR Trend......9 percent drier...except 4 percent drier along
                    the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Northwest winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 18 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (666).
Mixing Height.......4300 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northwest 15 to 18 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.


$$

MIZ028-029-034-035-041-060815-
Crawford...Oscoda...Roscommon...Ogemaw and Gladwin
Counties...including Western Huron NF-
230 PM EDT Sat Oct 5 2024

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (20-30 percent) until 2400, then
                    mostly cloudy (50-60 percent). Chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms after 2400.
Min Temperature.....52-57.
   24 HR Trend......21 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........86-91 percent.
   24 HR Trend......7 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds around 10 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 27 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (97).
Mixing Height.......500 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South 18 to 21 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.01- 0.19 in.

.SUNDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (45-55 percent). Chance of showers
                    and thunderstorms until 1200Slight chance of
                    rain showers after 1200.
Max Temperature.....66-71.
   24 HR Trend......3 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........32-37 percent.
   24 HR Trend......7 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......West winds around 10 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 27 mph.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (1680).
Mixing Height.......5500 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West around 18 mph increasing to around 30 mph
                    in the afternoon.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.11 in .

.SUNDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (55-65 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers until 2400.
Min Temperature.....39-44.
   24 HR Trend......12 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........89-94 percent.
   24 HR Trend......4 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Northwest winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 27 mph.
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Good (434).
Mixing Height.......2500 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northwest 21 to 24 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.06 in .

.MONDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (35-45 percent).
Max Temperature.....58-63.
   24 HR Trend......7 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........35-40 percent.
   24 HR Trend......1 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Northwest winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 23 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (937).
Mixing Height.......5400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northwest 18 to 21 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.01 in .


$$

.EXTENDED...

.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER
30S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S. WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER
60S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS AROUND 70.
SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 70S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.

$$

HAD