876
FNUS53 KAPX 010630
FWFAPX

Fire Weather Planning Forecast for northern Lower Michigan
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
230 AM EDT Tue Oct 1 2024

...Rain shower chances today...

.DISCUSSION...A cold front crossing northern Michgian from northwest
to southeast today will drive light shower chances through this
afternoon. Rainfall totals continue to look unimpressive --
generally 0.10" or less. Rain-free weather returns tonight through
at least Thursday. Northwest winds will become breezy at times today
before diminishing this evening/tonight. Noticeably cooler today with
afternoon temps in the upper 50s to low 60s area-wide. Temps back
into the 60s to near 70 degrees across northern MI for Wednesday
with RHs expected to fall back to the 30-40% range.


MIZ016-017-021>023-099-012000-
Emmet...Cheboygan...Charlevoix...Antrim...Otsego and Montmorency
Counties-
230 AM EDT Tue Oct 1 2024

.TODAY...
Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (55-65 percent). Numerous rain
                    showers until 1200, then scattered rain
                    showers.
Max Temperature.....59-64.
   24 HR Trend......17 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........44-49 percent.
   24 HR Trend......3 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Northwest winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 27 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (1318).
Mixing Height.......5600 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northwest 15 to 21 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.06 in .

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (25-35 percent).
Min Temperature.....38-43...except 46-51 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......18 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........90-95 percent...except 72-77 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......1 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Northwest winds around 5 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 23 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (19).
Mixing Height.......400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northwest 6 to 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.01 in .

.WEDNESDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (25-35 percent).
Max Temperature.....65-70.
   24 HR Trend......6 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........30-35 percent.
   24 HR Trend......18 percent drier...except 8 percent drier along
                    the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 27 mph.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (937).
Mixing Height.......4700 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 9 to 18 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.


$$

MIZ018-024-030-036-042-012000-
Presque Isle...Alpena...Alcona...Iosco and Arenac
Counties...including Eastern Huron NF-
230 AM EDT Tue Oct 1 2024

.TODAY...
Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (55-65 percent). Patchy fog until
                    1200. Scattered rain showers until 1200Numerous
                    rain showers after 1200.
Max Temperature.....64-69...except around 60 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......15 degrees cooler...except 5 degrees cooler
                    near the coast.
Min Humidity........55-60 percent.
   24 HR Trend......7 percent wetter...except 1 percent wetter
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds around 5 mph shifting to the
                    northwest in the afternoon. Gusts up to 30 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (920).
Mixing Height.......4200 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest around 12 mph shifting to the
                    northwest around 21 mph in the afternoon.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.02- 0.11 in.

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (25-35 percent).
Min Temperature.....36-41...except 46-51 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......18 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........91-96 percent...except 74-79 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......5 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Northwest winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 27 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (29).
Mixing Height.......400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northwest 9 to 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.03 in .

.WEDNESDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (25-35 percent).
Max Temperature.....66-71.
   24 HR Trend......7 degrees warmer...except 1 degree cooler near
                    the coast.
Min Humidity........30-35 percent.
   24 HR Trend......26 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds around 5 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 18 mph.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (828).
Mixing Height.......4900 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West 6 to 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.


$$

MIZ020-025>027-012000-
Leelanau...Benzie...Grand Traverse and Kalkaska
Counties...including the Sleeping Bear Dunes NL-
230 AM EDT Tue Oct 1 2024

.TODAY...
Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (50-60 percent). Scattered rain
                    showers.
Max Temperature.....59-64.
   24 HR Trend......18 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........44-49 percent.
   24 HR Trend......11 percent wetter...except 4 percent drier
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Northwest winds around 10 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 27 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (1148).
Mixing Height.......5500 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northwest 18 to 21 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.04 in .

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (25-35 percent).
Min Temperature.....36-41...except around 51 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......18 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........92-97 percent...except 61-66 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......3 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......North winds around 5 mph in the evening
                    becoming light. Gusts up to 25 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (19).
Mixing Height.......400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northwest 6 to 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.WEDNESDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (20-30 percent).
Max Temperature.....65-70...except 58-63 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......7 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........32-37 percent.
   24 HR Trend......16 percent drier...except 10 percent drier
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 27 mph.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (867).
Mixing Height.......4200 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South around 9 mph increasing to southwest
                    around 21 mph in the afternoon.
Pcpn Amount.........None.


$$

MIZ031>033-012000-
Manistee...Wexford and Missaukee Counties...Including the
northern quarter of Manistee NF-
230 AM EDT Tue Oct 1 2024

.TODAY...
Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (50-60 percent). Scattered rain
                    showers.
Max Temperature.....59-64.
   24 HR Trend......18 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........44-49 percent.
   24 HR Trend......10 percent wetter...except 9 percent drier
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Northwest winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 27 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (1020).
Mixing Height.......5000 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northwest 15 to 21 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.05 in .

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (20-30 percent).
Min Temperature.....36-41.
   24 HR Trend......15 degrees cooler...except 20 degrees cooler
                    near the coast.
Max Humidity........90-95 percent.
   24 HR Trend......3 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Northwest winds around 5 mph in the evening
                    becoming light. Gusts up to 25 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (18).
Mixing Height.......400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....North 6 to 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.WEDNESDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Sunny (20-30 percent). Patchy frost until 1200.
Max Temperature.....64-69.
   24 HR Trend......6 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........34-39 percent.
   24 HR Trend......16 percent drier...except 7 percent drier along
                    the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 23 mph.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (829).
Mixing Height.......4200 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South around 6 mph increasing to southwest
                    around 18 mph in the afternoon.
Pcpn Amount.........None.


$$

MIZ028-029-034-035-041-012000-
Crawford...Oscoda...Roscommon...Ogemaw and Gladwin
Counties...including Western Huron NF-
230 AM EDT Tue Oct 1 2024

.TODAY...
Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (55-65 percent). Patchy fog until
                    1200. Scattered rain showers until 1200Numerous
                    rain showers after 1200.
Max Temperature.....64-69.
   24 HR Trend......14 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........49-54 percent.
   24 HR Trend......10 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds around 5 mph shifting to the
                    northwest in the afternoon. Gusts up to 25 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (985).
Mixing Height.......4600 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West around 12 mph shifting to the northwest
                    around 21 mph in the afternoon.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.07 in .

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly clear (20-30 percent). Patchy frost
                    after 2400.
Min Temperature.....35-40.
   24 HR Trend......20 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........91-96 percent.
   24 HR Trend......3 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Northwest winds around 5 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 23 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (21).
Mixing Height.......400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northwest 6 to 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.02 in .

.WEDNESDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (25-35 percent). Patchy frost
                    until 1200.
Max Temperature.....65-70.
   24 HR Trend......4 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........30-35 percent.
   24 HR Trend......20 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds around 5 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 18 mph.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (812).
Mixing Height.......4600 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West 6 to 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.


$$

.EXTENDED...

.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 70S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE MID
60S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS AROUND 40. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S.
SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER
40S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID 40S.
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.

$$

MJG