566
FNUS53 KAPX 190845
FWFAPX

Fire Weather Planning Forecast for northern Lower Michigan
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
445 AM EDT Thu Sep 19 2024

...Elevated fire danger again today, rain chances on Friday...

.DISCUSSION...A cold front will move steadily east from the Dakotas,
reaching Michigan Friday. Very similar weather is expected today
compared to the last several days. Plenty of sunshine, warm
temperatures, and a light south to southeast breeze. Relative
humidity will lower to around 30 percent in parts of the interior of
northern lower Michigan. Clouds increase from the west tonight, with
a chance for showers and a few thunderstorms Friday and Friday
night. Humidity levels will be much higher Friday.

MIZ016-017-021>023-099-192200-
Emmet...Cheboygan...Charlevoix...Antrim...Otsego and Montmorency
Counties-
445 AM EDT Thu Sep 19 2024

.TODAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (20-30 percent).
Max Temperature.....82-87...except 72-77 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......Unchanged.
Min Humidity........30-35 percent.
   24 HR Trend......3 percent drier...except 5 percent wetter along
                    the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Light winds becoming south around 5 mph in the
                    afternoon.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Good (505).
Mixing Height.......5500 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South 6 to 9 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (30-40 percent).
Min Temperature.....60-65.
   24 HR Trend......4 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........90-95 percent...except 79-84 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......3 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Southeast winds around 5 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 13 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (27).
Mixing Height.......400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South 9 to 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.FRIDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (65-75 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers.
Max Temperature.....77-82...except 68-73 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......5 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........50-55 percent...except 60-65 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......24 percent wetter...except 19 percent wetter
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Light winds. Gusts up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Good (337).
Mixing Height.......2100 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South 12 to 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.09 in .


$$

MIZ018-024-030-036-042-192200-
Presque Isle...Alpena...Alcona...Iosco and Arenac
Counties...including Eastern Huron NF-
445 AM EDT Thu Sep 19 2024

.TODAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (25-35 percent). Patchy fog until
                    1200.
Max Temperature.....80-85...except 67-72 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......1 degree warmer.
Min Humidity........36-41 percent.
   24 HR Trend......5 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Light winds becoming southeast around 5 mph in
                    the afternoon. Gusts up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Good (342).
Mixing Height.......4200 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South 6 to 9 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly clear (20-30 percent).
Min Temperature.....57-62.
   24 HR Trend......3 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........94-99 percent...except 85-90 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......Unchanged.
20-Foot Winds.......Southeast winds around 5 mph in the evening
                    becoming light.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (35).
Mixing Height.......400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South around 9 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.FRIDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (60-70 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers after 1200.
Max Temperature.....77-82...except 67-72 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......3 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........49-54 percent.
   24 HR Trend......11 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Light winds.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Fair (280).
Mixing Height.......2200 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South around 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.09 in .


$$

MIZ020-025>027-192200-
Leelanau...Benzie...Grand Traverse and Kalkaska
Counties...including the Sleeping Bear Dunes NL-
445 AM EDT Thu Sep 19 2024

.TODAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (25-35 percent).
Max Temperature.....82-87...except 70-75 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......1 degree warmer.
Min Humidity........29-34 percent.
   24 HR Trend......3 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Light winds becoming south around 5 mph in the
                    afternoon.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Good (496).
Mixing Height.......5400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South around 9 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (30-40 percent).
Min Temperature.....59-64.
   24 HR Trend......5 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........91-96 percent...except 79-84 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......4 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Light winds.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (20).
Mixing Height.......300 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South 6 to 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.01 in .

.FRIDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (60-70 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers.
Max Temperature.....76-81...except around 71 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......6 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........57-62 percent.
   24 HR Trend......31 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Light winds. Gusts up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Good (454).
Mixing Height.......2400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South 15 to 18 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.03- 0.12 in.


$$

MIZ031>033-192200-
Manistee...Wexford and Missaukee Counties...Including the
northern quarter of Manistee NF-
445 AM EDT Thu Sep 19 2024

.TODAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (30-40 percent).
Max Temperature.....82-87...except around 80 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......1 degree warmer.
Min Humidity........29-34 percent.
   24 HR Trend......4 percent drier...except 1 percent wetter along
                    the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds around 5 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 13 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Good (474).
Mixing Height.......5800 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South around 9 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (30-40 percent).
Min Temperature.....57-62.
   24 HR Trend......5 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........88-93 percent.
   24 HR Trend......2 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Southeast winds around 5 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 13 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (26).
Mixing Height.......400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South 9 to 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.01 in .

.FRIDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (60-70 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers until 1200, then rain showers likely.
Max Temperature.....76-81.
   24 HR Trend......6 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........56-61 percent.
   24 HR Trend......31 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Light winds.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Good (476).
Mixing Height.......2800 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South around 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.03- 0.14 in.


$$

MIZ028-029-034-035-041-192200-
Crawford...Oscoda...Roscommon...Ogemaw and Gladwin
Counties...including Western Huron NF-
445 AM EDT Thu Sep 19 2024

.TODAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (25-35 percent). Patchy fog until
                    1200.
Max Temperature.....82-87.
   24 HR Trend......1 degree warmer.
Min Humidity........33-38 percent.
   24 HR Trend......8 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Light winds becoming south around 5 mph in the
                    afternoon.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Good (431).
Mixing Height.......5700 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South around 6 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (25-35 percent).
Min Temperature.....55-60.
   24 HR Trend......2 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........94-99 percent.
   24 HR Trend......Unchanged.
20-Foot Winds.......Southeast winds around 5 mph in the evening
                    becoming light.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (33).
Mixing Height.......400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South around 9 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.FRIDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (60-70 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers after 1200.
Max Temperature.....79-84.
   24 HR Trend......3 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........50-55 percent.
   24 HR Trend......18 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Light winds.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Good (337).
Mixing Height.......2600 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South around 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.10 in .


$$

.EXTENDED...

.SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER
50S. HIGHS AROUND 80. LIGHT WINDS.
.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER
50S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. LIGHT WINDS.
.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID 50S.
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S. NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS AROUND 50.
HIGHS AROUND 70. SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE
LOWER 50S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.

$$

JZ