584
FNUS53 KAPX 100631
FWFAPX

Fire Weather Planning Forecast for northern Lower Michigan
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
231 AM EDT Thu Oct 10 2024

...All focus remains centered on potential for high fire danger
conditions on Friday...

.DISCUSSION...Not a whole lot of change to previous forecasts.
Temperatures will warm a touch today, and when combined with a bit
more aggressive mixing out of low level moisture, will result in
relative humidity values dropping below 40 percent across much of
the area. Winds will remain light and below critical levels. Again,
primary concern remains centered on Friday, with increasing
southwest winds and the return of well above normal temperatures.
Sustained winds are expected to be between 10-15 mph with gusts up
to 20-30 mph as high temperatures climb into the mid/upper 70s.
Without any rain in the forecast until then, fine fuels will only
continue to dry. While minimum RHs mainly between 35-40 percent with
localized near-critical RHs are currently expected Friday afternoon
ahead of the front, aforementioned winds and very dry fuels raise
concerns about dangerous fire weather potential on Friday. Trends
will continue to be closely monitored. Otherwise, the next main
chances for rain look to return by the second half of this weekend.

MIZ016-017-021>023-099-102215-
Emmet...Cheboygan...Charlevoix...Antrim...Otsego and Montmorency
Counties-
231 AM EDT Thu Oct 10 2024

.TODAY...
Sky/Weather.........Sunny (0-10 percent). Patchy fog until 1200.
Max Temperature.....60-65...except 53-58 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......6 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........31-36 percent.
   24 HR Trend......14 percent drier...except 7 percent drier along
                    the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Light winds becoming southwest around 5 mph in
                    the afternoon.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Fair (222).
Mixing Height.......3300 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South around 3 mph shifting to the southwest
                    around 6 mph in the afternoon.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly clear (15-25 percent).
Min Temperature.....43-48...except around 50 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......13 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........77-82 percent.
   24 HR Trend......24 percent drier...except 14 percent drier
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Light winds becoming southwest around 5 mph
                    after midnight. Gusts up to 25 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (16).
Mixing Height.......300 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 6 to 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.FRIDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (40-50 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers after 1200.
Max Temperature.....73-78...except 61-66 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......11 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........36-41 percent.
   24 HR Trend......10 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds around 10 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 27 mph.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (791).
Mixing Height.......2600 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West 21 to 30 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.02 in .


$$

MIZ018-024-030-036-042-102215-
Presque Isle...Alpena...Alcona...Iosco and Arenac
Counties...including Eastern Huron NF-
231 AM EDT Thu Oct 10 2024

.TODAY...
Sky/Weather.........Sunny (0-10 percent). Patchy dense fog until
                    1200.
Max Temperature.....59-64...except 51-56 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......4 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........31-36 percent.
   24 HR Trend......1 percent drier...except 7 percent wetter along
                    the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Light winds.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Fair (230).
Mixing Height.......3700 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northwest around 6 mph shifting to the west in
                    the afternoon.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly clear (5-15 percent).
Min Temperature.....42-47...except 49-54 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......11 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........78-83 percent...except 65-70 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......24 percent drier...except 11 percent drier
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds around 5 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 18 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (24).
Mixing Height.......400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 9 to 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.FRIDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (40-50 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers after 1200.
Max Temperature.....75-80...except 64-69 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......15 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........32-37 percent.
   24 HR Trend......1 percent drier...except 6 percent drier along
                    the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 27 mph.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (872).
Mixing Height.......3100 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West 18 to 27 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.


$$

MIZ020-025>027-102215-
Leelanau...Benzie...Grand Traverse and Kalkaska
Counties...including the Sleeping Bear Dunes NL-
231 AM EDT Thu Oct 10 2024

.TODAY...
Sky/Weather.........Sunny (0-10 percent). Patchy fog until 1200.
Max Temperature.....61-66...except 53-58 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......6 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........31-36 percent.
   24 HR Trend......18 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Light winds becoming southwest around 5 mph in
                    the afternoon.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Fair (194).
Mixing Height.......3300 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southeast around 6 mph shifting to the
                    southwest in the afternoon.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly clear (20-30 percent).
Min Temperature.....43-48...except 55-60 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......13 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........84-89 percent...except 71-76 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......14 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds around 5 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 23 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (24).
Mixing Height.......400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 9 to 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.FRIDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (50-60 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers after 1200.
Max Temperature.....72-77...except 61-66 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......10 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........38-43 percent.
   24 HR Trend......10 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 23 mph.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (666).
Mixing Height.......2500 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 18 to 27 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.02 in .


$$

MIZ031>033-102215-
Manistee...Wexford and Missaukee Counties...Including the
northern quarter of Manistee NF-
231 AM EDT Thu Oct 10 2024

.TODAY...
Sky/Weather.........Sunny (0-10 percent).
Max Temperature.....62-67.
   24 HR Trend......5 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........31-36 percent.
   24 HR Trend......12 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Light winds becoming southwest around 5 mph in
                    the afternoon.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Fair (188).
Mixing Height.......3300 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southeast around 6 mph shifting to the
                    southwest in the afternoon.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly clear (15-25 percent).
Min Temperature.....43-48.
   24 HR Trend......13 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........87-92 percent.
   24 HR Trend......9 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds around 5 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 18 mph.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (23).
Mixing Height.......300 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 6 to 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.FRIDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (50-60 percent).
Max Temperature.....71-76.
   24 HR Trend......11 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........38-43 percent...except 47-52 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......9 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 23 mph.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (778).
Mixing Height.......2800 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 18 to 27 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.01 in .


$$

MIZ028-029-034-035-041-102215-
Crawford...Oscoda...Roscommon...Ogemaw and Gladwin
Counties...including Western Huron NF-
231 AM EDT Thu Oct 10 2024

.TODAY...
Sky/Weather.........Sunny (0-10 percent). Patchy fog until 1200.
Max Temperature.....59-64.
   24 HR Trend......4 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........30-35 percent.
   24 HR Trend......9 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Light winds.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Fair (233).
Mixing Height.......3600 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....North around 3 mph shifting to the west around
                    6 mph in the afternoon.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly clear (15-25 percent).
Min Temperature.....42-47.
   24 HR Trend......12 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........78-83 percent.
   24 HR Trend......19 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Light winds becoming southwest around 5 mph
                    after midnight. Gusts up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (21).
Mixing Height.......300 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 6 to 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.FRIDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (35-45 percent).
Max Temperature.....74-79.
   24 HR Trend......14 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........34-39 percent.
   24 HR Trend......5 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 23 mph.
Haines Index........6 or high potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (931).
Mixing Height.......3300 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West around 15 mph increasing to around 27 mph
                    in the afternoon.
Pcpn Amount.........None.


$$

.EXTENDED...

.SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 40. HIGHS IN THE UPPER
50S. NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S.
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S. NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.COLUMBUS DAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID 30S.
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S. NORTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID 30S.
HIGHS AROUND 50. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE MID
50S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.

$$

MSB