871
FNUS53 KAPX 110818
FWFAPX

Fire Weather Planning Forecast for northern Lower Michigan
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
418 AM EDT Mon Aug 11 2025

...Scattered showers and storms today...

.DISCUSSION...

Scattered showers and storms are expected across parts of northern
Michigan this morning into this afternoon, bringing an additional
0.25"-0.5" of rain with locally higher totals if multiple rounds of
storms track across specific locations. Southwest 20 ft winds
between 7-12 mph are expected for most areas late this morning into
this evening with gusts to 20-25 mph at times. While slightly cooler
temperatures are anticipated, highs still look to climb well into
the 80s this afternoon with readings in the upper 80s east of I-75.
RH concerns are not expected for the foreseeable future with a warm,
moist airmass in place.


MIZ016-017-021>023-099-112030-
Emmet...Cheboygan...Charlevoix...Antrim...Otsego and Montmorency
Counties-
418 AM EDT Mon Aug 11 2025

.TODAY...
Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (50-60 percent). Isolated
                    thunderstorms until 1200. Scattered showers.
                    Scattered thunderstorms after 1200.
Max Temperature.....82-87...except 72-77 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......3 degrees cooler...except 8 degrees cooler near
                    the coast.
Min Humidity........49-54 percent...except 65-70 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......11 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 23 mph.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (685).
Mixing Height.......3800 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 12 to 18 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.06- 0.23 in.
Chance of Thunder...37 percent.

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (30-40 percent). Isolated showers
                    and thunderstorms until 2400.
Min Temperature.....65-70.
   24 HR Trend......5 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........92-97 percent.
   24 HR Trend......7 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds around 5 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 18 mph.
Vent Rate...........Poor (27).
Mixing Height.......400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest around 9 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.06 in .
Chance of Thunder...23 percent.

.TUESDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (45-55 percent). Scattered
                    showers.
Max Temperature.....80-85...except 71-76 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......3 degrees cooler...except 4 degrees warmer near
                    the coast.
Min Humidity........57-62 percent.
   24 HR Trend......3 percent drier...except 10 percent drier along
                    the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 18 mph.
Vent Rate...........Good (593).
Mixing Height.......3700 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 12 to 18 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.10- 0.40 in.
Chance of Thunder...20 percent.


$$

MIZ018-024-030-036-042-112030-
Presque Isle...Alpena...Alcona...Iosco and Arenac
Counties...including Eastern Huron NF-
418 AM EDT Mon Aug 11 2025

.TODAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (40-50 percent). Isolated showers
                    until 1200Scattered showers and thunderstorms
                    after 1200.
Max Temperature.....84-89...except around 80 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......3 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........46-51 percent.
   24 HR Trend......11 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 23 mph.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (912).
Mixing Height.......4600 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 12 to 21 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.03- 0.16 in.
Chance of Thunder...42 percent.

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (30-40 percent). Scattered
                    showers and thunderstorms until 2400, then
                    isolated showers and thunderstorms.
Min Temperature.....64-69...except around 71 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......5 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........93-98 percent.
   24 HR Trend......9 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds around 5 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 18 mph.
Vent Rate...........Poor (25).
Mixing Height.......400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West around 9 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.08 in .
Chance of Thunder...42 percent.

.TUESDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (45-55 percent). Scattered
                    showers. Scattered thunderstorms after 1200.
Max Temperature.....81-86...except 71-76 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......4 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........55-60 percent.
   24 HR Trend......7 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 18 mph.
Vent Rate...........Good (518).
Mixing Height.......3600 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 12 to 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.09- 0.36 in.
Chance of Thunder...33 percent.


$$

MIZ020-025>027-112030-
Leelanau...Benzie...Grand Traverse and Kalkaska
Counties...including the Sleeping Bear Dunes NL-
418 AM EDT Mon Aug 11 2025

.TODAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent) until 1200, then
                    mostly sunny (40-50 percent). Isolated
                    thunderstorms until 1200. Scattered showers.
                    Scattered thunderstorms after 1200.
Max Temperature.....80-85...except 72-77 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......3 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........58-63 percent.
   24 HR Trend......7 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 23 mph.
Vent Rate...........Good (450).
Mixing Height.......2700 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 15 to 18 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.07- 0.36 in.
Chance of Thunder...33 percent.

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (30-40 percent). Isolated showers
                    after 2400.
Min Temperature.....64-69...except around 71 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......5 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........94-99 percent...except 83-88 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......1 percent drier...except 7 percent drier along
                    the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds around 5 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 13 mph.
Vent Rate...........Poor (32).
Mixing Height.......400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 9 to 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.08 in .
Chance of Thunder...13 percent.

.TUESDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (50-60 percent). Scattered
                    showers.
Max Temperature.....79-84...except 71-76 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......2 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........59-64 percent.
   24 HR Trend......4 percent wetter...except 2 percent drier along
                    the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds around 5 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 23 mph.
Vent Rate...........Good (534).
Mixing Height.......3400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 12 to 18 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.12- 0.23 in.
Chance of Thunder...20 percent.


$$

MIZ031>033-112030-
Manistee...Wexford and Missaukee Counties...Including the
northern quarter of Manistee NF-
418 AM EDT Mon Aug 11 2025

.TODAY...
Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (50-60 percent). Isolated
                    thunderstorms until 1200. Scattered showers.
                    Scattered thunderstorms after 1200.
Max Temperature.....81-86...except 74-79 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......4 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........56-61 percent...except 67-72 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......6 percent drier...except 3 percent wetter along
                    the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 23 mph.
Vent Rate...........Good (518).
Mixing Height.......3100 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 15 to 18 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.04- 0.16 in.
Chance of Thunder...30 percent.

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (35-45 percent). Isolated showers
                    and thunderstorms.
Min Temperature.....65-70.
   24 HR Trend......5 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........95-100 percent.
   24 HR Trend......6 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds around 5 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 13 mph.
Vent Rate...........Poor (30).
Mixing Height.......400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest around 9 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.08 in .
Chance of Thunder...14 percent.

.TUESDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (60-70 percent). Scattered
                    showers.
Max Temperature.....79-84.
   24 HR Trend......2 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........60-65 percent.
   24 HR Trend......4 percent wetter...except 4 percent drier along
                    the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 18 mph.
Vent Rate...........Good (533).
Mixing Height.......3400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 12 to 18 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.10- 0.26 in.
Chance of Thunder...25 percent.


$$

MIZ028-029-034-035-041-112030-
Crawford...Oscoda...Roscommon...Ogemaw and Gladwin
Counties...including Western Huron NF-
418 AM EDT Mon Aug 11 2025

.TODAY...
Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (45-55 percent). Isolated showers
                    and thunderstorms until 1200Scattered showers
                    and thunderstorms after 1200.
Max Temperature.....84-89.
   24 HR Trend......4 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........49-54 percent.
   24 HR Trend......12 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 23 mph.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (983).
Mixing Height.......4800 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 15 to 21 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.01- 0.11 in.
Chance of Thunder...42 percent.

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (35-45 percent). Scattered
                    showers and thunderstorms until 2400, then
                    isolated showers and thunderstorms.
Min Temperature.....64-69.
   24 HR Trend......5 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........93-98 percent.
   24 HR Trend......10 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds around 5 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 18 mph.
Vent Rate...........Poor (27).
Mixing Height.......400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West 9 to 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.04 in .
Chance of Thunder...37 percent.

.TUESDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (60-70 percent). Scattered
                    showers. Scattered thunderstorms after 1200.
Max Temperature.....81-86.
   24 HR Trend......4 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........56-61 percent.
   24 HR Trend......8 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds around 5 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 18 mph.
Vent Rate...........Good (582).
Mixing Height.......3900 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 12 to 18 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.11- 0.26 in.
Chance of Thunder...44 percent.


$$

.EXTENDED...

.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. WEST WINDS AROUND
5 MPH.
.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 50S. HIGHS IN THE MID
80S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S. SOUTHWEST WINDS
AROUND 5 MPH.
.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE LOWER
60S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.

$$

DJC