070
FNUS53 KAPX 061413
FWFAPX

Fire Weather Planning Forecast for northern Lower Michigan
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1013 AM EDT Sun Oct 6 2024

...Red Flag Warning until 5 pm for southern parts of northeast
lower Michigan...

.DISCUSSION...A cold front has exited to the east, with post-frontal
cooler air bringing the threat for some light lake effect rain
showers this afternoon and tonight. Unfortunately, any rain amounts
look to remain light. Increasingly gusty west to northwest winds,
well above critical levels, will spread across the area today, with
winds only slowly diminishing tonight and Monday. The cooler
temperatures will keep relative humidity values a bit more elevated,
but still likely looking at sub 30 percent readings today, southeast
of a line from Houghton Lake to Alpena. Good to excellent rh recovery
expected tonight. More aggressive drying of low level moisture again
on Monday, with near or below 40 percent rh values during the
afternoon, especially across northeast lower Michigan.

MIZ016-017-021>023-099-062200-
Emmet...Cheboygan...Charlevoix...Antrim...Otsego and Montmorency
Counties-
1013 AM EDT Sun Oct 6 2024

.REST OF TODAY...
Sky/Weather.........Sunny (0-10 percent) until 1200, then partly
                    sunny (50-60 percent). Isolated rain showers
                    after 1200.
Max Temperature.....64-69...except 57-62 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......5 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........33-38 percent...except 46-51 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......14 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......West winds 10 to 15 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 27 mph.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (1672).
Mixing Height.......5400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West 27 to 30 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Isolated rain
                    showers.
Min Temperature.....42-47...except 49-54 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......14 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........82-87 percent...except 69-74 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......12 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Northwest winds around 10 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 32 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Good (349).
Mixing Height.......1500 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northwest around 24 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.02 in .

.MONDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (40-50 percent).
Max Temperature.....56-61.
   24 HR Trend......7 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........35-40 percent...except 46-51 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......2 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Northwest winds around 10 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 23 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (854).
Mixing Height.......4300 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northwest around 21 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.01 in .


$$

MIZ018-024-030-036-042-062200-
Presque Isle...Alpena...Alcona...Iosco and Arenac
Counties...including Eastern Huron NF-
1013 AM EDT Sun Oct 6 2024

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON...

.REST OF TODAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (40-50 percent).
Max Temperature.....69-74...except 61-66 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......2 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........26-31 percent.
   24 HR Trend......2 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......West winds 10 to 15 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 27 mph.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (2000).
Mixing Height.......6300 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West 21 to 30 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent). Isolated rain
                    showers.
Min Temperature.....43-48.
   24 HR Trend......13 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........82-87 percent...except 72-77 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......9 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Northwest winds around 10 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 32 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Fair (292).
Mixing Height.......1300 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northwest 21 to 24 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.02 in .

.MONDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (35-45 percent).
Max Temperature.....58-63...except 51-56 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......10 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........33-38 percent.
   24 HR Trend......5 percent wetter...except 11 percent wetter
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Northwest winds around 10 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 27 mph.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (1148).
Mixing Height.......5700 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northwest around 21 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.02 in .


$$

MIZ020-025>027-062200-
Leelanau...Benzie...Grand Traverse and Kalkaska
Counties...including the Sleeping Bear Dunes NL-
1013 AM EDT Sun Oct 6 2024

.REST OF TODAY...
Sky/Weather.........Sunny (0-10 percent) until 1200, then partly
                    sunny (55-65 percent).
Max Temperature.....63-68.
   24 HR Trend......7 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........38-43 percent.
   24 HR Trend......13 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......West winds 10 to 15 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 27 mph.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (1459).
Mixing Height.......5000 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West around 27 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent). Isolated rain
                    showers.
Min Temperature.....42-47...except around 50 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......13 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........79-84 percent...except 63-68 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......13 percent wetter...except 2 percent drier
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Northwest winds around 10 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 32 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Good (375).
Mixing Height.......1700 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northwest 24 to 27 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.02 in .

.MONDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (35-45 percent).
Max Temperature.....58-63.
   24 HR Trend......5 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........40-45 percent.
   24 HR Trend......2 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Northwest winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 23 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (677).
Mixing Height.......3600 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northwest around 18 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.01 in .


$$

MIZ031>033-062200-
Manistee...Wexford and Missaukee Counties...Including the
northern quarter of Manistee NF-
1013 AM EDT Sun Oct 6 2024

.REST OF TODAY...
Sky/Weather.........Sunny (0-10 percent) until 1200, then partly
                    sunny (50-60 percent).
Max Temperature.....63-68.
   24 HR Trend......6 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........37-42 percent.
   24 HR Trend......10 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......West winds around 10 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 27 mph.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (1434).
Mixing Height.......5000 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West 27 to 30 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent).
Min Temperature.....40-45...except 47-52 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......13 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........79-84 percent...except 63-68 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......11 percent wetter...except unchanged along the
                    coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Northwest winds around 10 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 27 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Fair (287).
Mixing Height.......1400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northwest 21 to 27 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.MONDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (40-50 percent).
Max Temperature.....57-62.
   24 HR Trend......6 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........38-43 percent.
   24 HR Trend......2 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Northwest winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 18 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (703).
Mixing Height.......3900 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northwest around 18 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.


$$

MIZ028-029-034-035-041-062200-
Crawford...Oscoda...Roscommon...Ogemaw and Gladwin
Counties...including Western Huron NF-
1013 AM EDT Sun Oct 6 2024

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON...

.REST OF TODAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (45-55 percent).
Max Temperature.....69-74.
   24 HR Trend......1 degree cooler.
Min Humidity........27-32 percent.
   24 HR Trend......Unchanged.
20-Foot Winds.......West winds 10 to 15 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 27 mph.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (1923).
Mixing Height.......5800 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West 24 to 30 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent). Isolated rain
                    showers.
Min Temperature.....41-46.
   24 HR Trend......13 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........81-86 percent.
   24 HR Trend......7 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Northwest winds around 10 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 27 mph.
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Fair (218).
Mixing Height.......1200 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northwest 21 to 24 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.01 in .

.MONDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (40-50 percent).
Max Temperature.....58-63.
   24 HR Trend......9 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........34-39 percent.
   24 HR Trend......5 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Northwest winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 23 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (1037).
Mixing Height.......5200 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northwest 18 to 21 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.


$$

.EXTENDED...

.TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER
30S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE MID
60S. WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE MID
70S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. HIGHS IN THE
MID 70S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.

$$

JZ