697
FNUS53 KAPX 160802
FWFAPX

Fire Weather Planning Forecast for northern Lower Michigan
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
402 AM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025

...Dry Today; Shower Potential Tonight Precedes Wetter Weekend...

.DISCUSSION... Surface high pressure right overhead today will
lead to a period of variable but light winds across northern lower
Michigan. Anticipating high temperatures in the upper 50s to mid
60s today. The kicker will be those RHs, which may dip into the
mid 30s across the interior, but largely hold in the 40s and 50s
elsewhere. As such, parameters will be low for fire growth today,
but with dry vegetation, once again, non-zero risk for fire
growth. Looking ahead, a warm front lifts into the region and
brings potential for some showers tonight. Once this front clears,
we will be contending with breezier conditions Friday as we get
into the warm sector of a larger system, thus, temps will rise
into the 60s to near 70 across the board. Then, a series of larger
disturbances will pass through the region over the course of the
weekend, bringing potential for a widespread soaking rain to
northern Michigan if current long term guidance trends hold.


MIZ016-017-021>023-099-162030-
Emmet...Cheboygan...Charlevoix...Antrim...Otsego and Montmorency
Counties-
402 AM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025

.TODAY...
Sky/Weather.........Sunny (20-30 percent). Patchy fog until 1200.
Max Temperature.....59-64.
   24 HR Trend......4 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........37-42 percent...except 46-51 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......9 percent drier...except 2 percent wetter along
                    the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Light winds.
Vent Rate...........Poor (91).
Mixing Height.......3000 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....North around 3 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.
Chance of Thunder...0 percent.

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (60-70 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers until 2400, then rain showers.
Min Temperature.....42-47...except 49-54 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......11 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........90-95 percent.
   24 HR Trend......8 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Light winds becoming south around 5 mph after
                    midnight. Gusts up to 20 mph.
Vent Rate...........Poor (20).
Mixing Height.......400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southeast around 6 mph shifting to the south
                    around 12 mph after midnight.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.09- 0.29 in.
Chance of Thunder...2 percent.

.FRIDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (80-90 percent). Rain showers
                    until 1200.
Max Temperature.....62-67.
   24 HR Trend......3 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........52-57 percent.
   24 HR Trend......16 percent wetter...except 7 percent wetter
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 23 mph.
Vent Rate...........Good (322).
Mixing Height.......1600 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South 15 to 21 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.11- 0.37 in.
Chance of Thunder...5 percent.


$$

MIZ018-024-030-036-042-162030-
Presque Isle...Alpena...Alcona...Iosco and Arenac
Counties...including Eastern Huron NF-
402 AM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025

.TODAY...
Sky/Weather.........Sunny (10-20 percent). Patchy fog until 1200.
Max Temperature.....59-64...except 50-55 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......3 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........39-44 percent.
   24 HR Trend......3 percent wetter...except 4 percent drier along
                    the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Light winds becoming north around 5 mph in the
                    afternoon.
Vent Rate...........Fair (158).
Mixing Height.......3400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....North around 6 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.
Chance of Thunder...0 percent.

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (45-55 percent) until 2400, then
                    mostly cloudy (65-75 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers.
Min Temperature.....41-46...except 48-53 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......9 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........87-92 percent...except 78-83 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......9 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Light winds becoming south around 5 mph after
                    midnight.
Vent Rate...........Poor (24).
Mixing Height.......400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southeast 6 to 9 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.02- 0.21 in.
Chance of Thunder...0 percent.

.FRIDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Cloudy (85-95 percent). Rain showers until
                    1200.
Max Temperature.....59-64.
   24 HR Trend......1 degree cooler.
Min Humidity........55-60 percent.
   24 HR Trend......13 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 23 mph.
Vent Rate...........Good (308).
Mixing Height.......1500 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South 12 to 21 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.09- 0.38 in.
Chance of Thunder...4 percent.


$$

MIZ020-025>027-162030-
Leelanau...Benzie...Grand Traverse and Kalkaska
Counties...including the Sleeping Bear Dunes NL-
402 AM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025

.TODAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (25-35 percent). Patchy fog until
                    1200.
Max Temperature.....61-66...except 54-59 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......4 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........35-40 percent.
   24 HR Trend......9 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Light winds.
Vent Rate...........Poor (119).
Mixing Height.......3400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....East around 3 mph shifting to the south in the
                    afternoon.
Pcpn Amount.........None.
Chance of Thunder...0 percent.

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (55-65 percent). Rain showers
                    likely until 2400, then rain showers.
Min Temperature.....44-49...except 52-57 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......12 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........87-92 percent...except 75-80 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......9 percent drier...except 14 percent drier along
                    the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Light winds becoming south around 5 mph after
                    midnight. Gusts up to 20 mph.
Vent Rate...........Poor (15).
Mixing Height.......400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South 6 to 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.06- 0.22 in.
Chance of Thunder...3 percent.

.FRIDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers.
Max Temperature.....63-68.
   24 HR Trend......3 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........48-53 percent.
   24 HR Trend......17 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 27 mph.
Vent Rate...........Good (386).
Mixing Height.......1700 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South 15 to 21 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.04- 0.15 in.
Chance of Thunder...4 percent.


$$

MIZ031>033-162030-
Manistee...Wexford and Missaukee Counties...Including the
northern quarter of Manistee NF-
402 AM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025

.TODAY...
Sky/Weather.........Sunny (20-30 percent). Patchy fog until 1200.
Max Temperature.....61-66.
   24 HR Trend......3 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........34-39 percent...except 44-49 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......7 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Light winds.
Vent Rate...........Fair (155).
Mixing Height.......3600 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....East around 6 mph shifting to the south in the
                    afternoon.
Pcpn Amount.........None.
Chance of Thunder...0 percent.

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (45-55 percent) until 2400, then
                    mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers until 2400, then rain showers likely.
Min Temperature.....44-49.
   24 HR Trend......13 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........80-85 percent.
   24 HR Trend......17 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Light winds becoming south around 5 mph after
                    midnight. Gusts up to 20 mph.
Vent Rate...........Poor (14).
Mixing Height.......400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South 6 to 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.04- 0.12 in.
Chance of Thunder...3 percent.

.FRIDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (80-90 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers.
Max Temperature.....63-68.
   24 HR Trend......1 degree warmer.
Min Humidity........47-52 percent.
   24 HR Trend......16 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 23 mph.
Vent Rate...........Good (404).
Mixing Height.......1900 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South 15 to 21 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.10 in .
Chance of Thunder...4 percent.


$$

MIZ028-029-034-035-041-162030-
Crawford...Oscoda...Roscommon...Ogemaw and Gladwin
Counties...including Western Huron NF-
402 AM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025

.TODAY...
Sky/Weather.........Sunny (15-25 percent). Patchy fog until 1200.
Max Temperature.....60-65.
   24 HR Trend......2 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........34-39 percent.
   24 HR Trend......3 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Light winds.
Vent Rate...........Poor (114).
Mixing Height.......3600 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....North 3 to 6 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.
Chance of Thunder...0 percent.

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (40-50 percent) until 2400, then
                    mostly cloudy (60-70 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers.
Min Temperature.....41-46.
   24 HR Trend......11 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........88-93 percent.
   24 HR Trend......12 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Light winds becoming south around 5 mph after
                    midnight.
Vent Rate...........Poor (22).
Mixing Height.......400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South 6 to 9 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.02- 0.18 in.
Chance of Thunder...1 percent.

.FRIDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (80-90 percent). Rain showers
                    likely.
Max Temperature.....59-64.
   24 HR Trend......1 degree cooler.
Min Humidity........50-55 percent.
   24 HR Trend......20 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds around 5 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 23 mph.
Vent Rate...........Good (300).
Mixing Height.......1600 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South 12 to 18 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.06- 0.24 in.
Chance of Thunder...4 percent.


$$

.EXTENDED...

.SATURDAY...SHOWERS LIKELY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. HIGHS IN THE
MID 60S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
.SUNDAY...SHOWERS AND CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE UPPER
40S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 15 MPH.
.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S. WEST WINDS AROUND
10 MPH.
.TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE LOWER
40S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SHOWERS LIKELY. LOWS AROUND 40.
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.

$$

HAD