631
AXUS73 KAPX 272118
DGTAPX
MIC001-007-011-019-039-051-055-069-079-089-101-113-119-129-135-
141-143-165-061615-

Drought Information Statement
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
418 PM EST Thu Feb 27 2025

...Severe Drought Conditions Expand Across Parts of Northern
Lower Michigan...

.SYNOPSIS: Some expansion of Severe drought coverage across
northern Lower Michigan since last week...especially into
northwest Lower Michigan.

.DROUGHT INTENSITY AND EXTENT: The following description of
northern Michigan drought conditions is based on the most recent
U.S. Drought Monitor published on February 27, 2025.

Drought Category D2...Severe Drought: Crop or pasture losses
likely... water shortages common. Areas included in drought
category D2 include Presque Isle...Leelanau...Montmorency...
Alpena...Benzie...Crawford...Oscoda...Alcona...Manistee...Roscommon...
Ogemaw...Iosco...Gladwin...and Arenac counties in northern Lower
Michigan. This represents an expansion in D2 drought coverage
since last week...with a reintroduction of D2 drought across
Leelanau...Benzie...and Manistee counties.

Drought Category D1...Moderate Drought: Some damage to crops and
pastures...streams or wells low...some water shortages developing
or imminent. Areas included in drought category D1 include
Otsego...Grand Traverse...Kalkaska...Wexford...and Missaukee
counties in northern Lower Michigan. Sufficient D1 drought
coverage has been added back into Otsego county.

.HYDROLOGIC CONDITIONS: Precipitation through the summer months
(June-August) was generally from 75 to 125 percent of normal.
Across eastern Upper Michigan June was the wettest month of the
summer with precipitation 150 to 200+ percent of normal...things
started to dry out in July with below normal rainfall though most
areas received at least 50 percent of normal precipitation. A
similar trend was noted in August. Precipitation during the fall
months (September-November) started out below normal for
September (less than 50 percent of normal with some areas less
than 25 percent of normal) and October (25 to 75 percent of
normal). But November precipitation was above normal in most
locations...more than 200 percent of normal across northern
Chippewa county and in the higher terrain of eastern Antrim/
western Otsego/northwest Kalkaska counties mainly due to a
significant lake effect snow event during Thanksgiving weekend.

December precipitation was above normal in most areas...with the
heaviest precipitation (150-200+ percent of normal) concentrated
over the typical northwest flow lake effect snow areas. Traverse
City recorded its second snowiest December on record (48.2
inches)...Gaylord its fourth snowiest December (57.9 inches)...
and Houghton Lake its 9th snowiest (23.4 inches). January 2025
precipitation was largely dependent on location relative to the
Lake Superior and Lake Michigan snowbelt areas. Precipitation
departures of 150-200 percent of normal occurred mainly between
Grand Traverse Bay and the I-75 corridor in northwest Lower
Michigan (bounded roughly by the M-68 and M-72 corridors to the
north and south respectively)...the typical Lake Michigan snow
belt regions. Precipitation departures of 100-125 percent of
normal have occurred over northern Chippewa county adjacent to
Whitefish Bay. Sault Ste. Marie recorded their second snowiest
January on record (58.4 inches).

Through the latter days of February...total seasonal snowfall is
running 125 to 175 percent of normal across northern Michigan.
Sault Ste. Marie...Gaylord...Traverse City...and Houghton Lake
have all exceeded their normal seasonal snowfall total. Liquid
equivalent precipitation so far this month is running above normal
across northern Lower...with 200 to 300 percent of normal across
interior northern Lower from M-55 north to M-32. Across eastern
Upper above normal (100-150 percent of normal) precipitation has
occurred around the west side of Whitefish Bay...with
precipitation a bit below normal across eastern portions of
Mackinac and Chippewa counties. Snow water equivalent in the snow
pack across eastern Upper Michigan is generally 2 to 6 inches
across Mackinac and southeast Chippewa counties...and from 6 to 9
inches over the remainder of Chippewa county. Across northern
Lower snow water equivalent ranges from 2 to 4 inches across
northeast Lower...and 4 to 7 inches across northwest Lower with
the highest amounts (and in the 90th percentile relative to
climatology) east of Grand Traverse Bay within the traditional
Lake Michigan snow belt.

Temperatures for the summer came out pretty much near normal; for
the fall months as a whole (September-November)...Sault Ste.
Marie recorded its warmest fall on record (+5.4 degrees) as did
Gaylord (+7.7 degrees). Second warmest falls on record occurred
at Pellston (+4.6 degrees) and Traverse City (+4.9 degrees)...
third warmest at Alpena (+4.3 degrees)...and ninth warmest at
Houghton Lake (+3.3 degrees).

December temperatures averaged from 1 to 3 degrees above normal...
a thirteenth consecutive month of above normal temperatures
dating back to December 2023. This occurred despite the abundant
snowfall...with a couple of thaws (December 7th-10th/15th-17th/
26th-30th) helping push temperatures above normal. All of this
warmth throughout the year added up to the warmest calendar year
on record at five of the main climatological stations...Houghton
Lake ended up tying their record warmest year. Mean temperatures
for January 2025 ended up with 1 to 2 degrees either side of
normal...this despite of a particularly cold spell from the
19th-24th of January.

So far for February temperatures are around 1 to 3 degrees below
normal...in large part to a two week cold spell during the middle
two weeks of the month.

Soil moisture is near normal across all of northern Michigan.
Streamflows on northern Michigan rivers are below normal on the
Au Sable and Manistee Rivers...with rivers running near normal
elsewhere with fluctuations in river levels due to ice activity.

.SUMMARY OF IMPACTS: No known impacts at this time.

.LOCAL DROUGHT OUTLOOK: More widespread snow (and some rain) is
expected to overspread northern Michigan on Friday...with the
heaviest snow anticipated across eastern Upper and the tip of the
mitt counties of northern Lower Michigan. This will be
accompanied by colder temperatures for the weekend...though warmer
weather is expected to return Monday.

The 6 to 10 day outlook issued by the Climate Prediction Center
valid for the period of March 5-9, 2025 is leaning toward near
normal temperatures and above normal precipitation.

The seasonal drought outlook which is valid from March through
May 2025 is predicting a slow improvement in drought conditions
heading during Spring. It is anticipated that areas currently in
the D2 drought category will improve to at least the D1
category...aided by snowpack melting.

.NEXT ISSUANCE DATE: This product will be updated Thursday March
6, 2025. This will coincide with the issuance of the second spring
flood outlook for northern Michigan.

.RELATED WEB SITES: Additional information on current drought
conditions may be found at the following web addresses:

US Drought Monitor: https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu
US Drought Information System: https://www.drought.gov
NOAA Drought Page: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

Additional water and river information:

NWS Office of Water Prediction (OWP): https://water.noaa.gov
US Geological Survey (USGS): https://water.usgs.gov
US Army Corps of Engineers (USACE): https://www.usace.army.mil

.ACKNOWLEDGMENTS: The Drought Monitor is a multi-agency effort
involving the National Weather Service and National Centers for
Environmental Information, the USDA, state and regional center
climatologists and the National Drought Mitigation Center.
Information for this statement has been gathered from NWS and FAA
observation sites, state cooperative extension services, the
USDA, USACE and USGS.

.CONTACT INFORMATION: If you have questions or comments about
this Drought Information Statement, please contact:

National Weather Service
8800 Passenheim Road
Gaylord, MI 49735
Phone...989-731-3384
w-apx.webmaster@noaa.gov

$$

JPB