262
AXUS73 KAPX 311700
DGTAPX
MIC001-007-009-011-019-029-031-033-039-047-051-055-069-079-089-
097-101-113-119-129-135-137-141-143-165-071700-

Drought Information Statement
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
100 PM EDT Thu Oct 31 2024

...Severe Drought Continues to Expand Across Northern Michigan...

.SYNOPSIS: Persistent dry and warmer than normal temperatures
have resulted in Severe Drought conditions across eastern Upper
Michigan and northern Lower Michigan.

.DROUGHT INTENSITY AND EXTENT: The following description of
northern Michigan drought conditions is based on the most recent
U.S. Drought Monitor published on October 31, 2024.

Drought Category D2...Severe Drought: Crop or pasture losses
likely...water shortages common. Areas included in drought
category D2 include Mackinac and Chippewa counties in eastern
Upper Michigan...and Emmet...Cheboygan...Presque Isle...
Charlevoix...Leelanau...Antrim...Otsego...Montmorency...
Alpena...Benzie...Grand Traverse...Kalkaska...Crawford...
Oscoda...Alcona...Manistee...Wexford...Missaukee...Roscommon...
Ogemaw...Iosco...Gladwin...and Arenac counties.

This represents an expansion of severe drought conditions
across the remainder of northern Lower Michigan.

.HYDROLOGIC CONDITIONS: Precipitation through the summer months
(June- August) was generally from 75 to 125 percent of normal.
Across eastern Upper Michigan June was the wettest month of the
summer with precipitation 150-200+ percent of normal...things
started to dry out in July with below normal rainfall though
most areas received at least 50 percent of normal precipitation.
A similar trend was noted in August. Precipitation across all of
northern Michigan was below normal for September (less than 50
percent of normal with some areas less than 25 percent normal).

For October...precipitation departures will mostly be less than
50 percent of normal. There are some pockets along the M-55
corridor and east of I-75 in northern Lower Michigan where
precipitation was less than 25 percent of normal. There was a
narrow swath of 50 to 75 percent of normal rainfall from the
Leelanau Peninsula northeast through the Straits of Mackinac and
into eastern Chippewa county: this was mostly due to a band of
1-2+ inches of rain that fell across this area on the 30th and
31st.

Temperatures for the summer came out pretty much near normal...
September ended up about 3 to 7 degrees above normal. Both Sault
Ste. Marie and Gaylord recorded their warmest September on record.

October temperatures will end up from 2 to 5 degrees above
normal... which included a spell of cooler weather from October
12- 16. But the period of October 16-22 came in at a blazing 10
to 12 degrees above normal across eastern Upper Michigan...and
from 6 to 11 degrees above normal across northern Lower Michigan
(warmest around Grand Traverse and Little Traverse Bays). The
month also ended with another round of record high temperatures
on the 30th with new records at Alpena (77)...Gaylord (75)...and
tied at Pellston (75). Traverse City set new record highs on the
21st...22nd...and 29th. The record high of 80 on the 29th was the
latest date in which Traverse City recorded a temperature of 80
degrees. This was the eleventh consecutive month of above normal
temperatures...a string that began in December 2023.

The combined warmth and dryness has resulted in a drying of
topsoil across northern Michigan. Soil moisture across much of
eastern Upper Michigan is below the 5th percentile...as well as
along and west of the I-75 corridor in northern Lower Michigan.
Streamflows on northern Michigan rivers are also running below
normal for late October though there has been some improvement
especially in the Cheboygan and Thunder Bay River basins in
northern Lower Michigan. Gaging stations reporting record low
streamflows for October 31st are as follows:

  Pine River near Hoxeyville

.SUMMARY OF IMPACTS: No known impacts at this time.

.LOCAL DROUGHT OUTLOOK: Another chance for widespread rainfall is
expected Sunday through Tuesday (November 3-5). Temperatures are
expected to remain seasonable through the weekend before warming
once again early next week.

The 6 to 10 day outlook issued by the Climate Prediction Center
valid from November 5-9 is calling for a high likelihood of above
normal temperatures...along with a better chance for above normal
precipitation.

The seasonal drought outlook which is valid from November 2024
through the end of January 2025 is predicting an improvement in
drought conditions heading into the winter especially across
northern Lower Michigan.

.NEXT ISSUANCE DATE: This product will be updated Thursday
November 7, 2024.

.RELATED WEB SITES: Additional information on current drought
conditions may be found at the following web addresses:

US Drought Monitor: https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu
US Drought Information System: https://www.drought.gov
NOAA Drought Page: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

Additional water and river information:

NWS Office of Water Prediction (OWP): https://water.noaa.gov
US Geological Survey (USGS): https://water.usgs.gov
US Army Corps of Engineers (USACE): https://www.usace.army.mil

.ACKNOWLEDGMENTS: The Drought Monitor is a multi-agency effort
involving the National Weather Service and National Centers for
Environmental Information, the USDA, state and regional center
climatologists and the National Drought Mitigation Center.
Information for this statement has been gathered from NWS and FAA
observation sites, state cooperative extension services, the USDA,
USACE and USGS.

.CONTACT INFORMATION: If you have questions or comments about
this Drought Information Statement, please contact:

National Weather Service
8800 Passenheim Road
Gaylord, MI 49735
Phone...989-731-3384
w-apx.webmaster@noaa.gov

$$

JPB