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AXUS73 KAPX 071720
DGTAPX
MIC001-007-011-019-039-051-055-069-079-089-101-113-119-129-135-
141-143-165-131800-

Drought Information Statement
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1220 PM EST Fri Feb 7 2025

...Improving Drought Conditions Across Parts of Northern Lower
Michigan...

.SYNOPSIS: Severe drought coverage has decreased across parts of
northeast Lower Michigan.

.DROUGHT INTENSITY AND EXTENT: The following description of
northern Michigan drought conditions is based on the most recent
U.S. Drought Monitor published on February 6, 2025.

Drought Category D2...Severe Drought: Crop or pasture losses
likely... water shortages common. Areas included in drought
category D2 include Oscoda...Alcona...Roscommon...Ogemaw...Iosco...
Gladwin...and Arenac counties in northern Lower Michigan.  This
represents a removal of D2 drought from Montmorency...Alpena...and
Crawford counties.

Drought Category D1...Moderate Drought: Some damage to crops and
pastures...streams or wells low...some water shortages developing
or imminent. Areas included in drought category D1 include
Presque Isle...Leelanau...Montmorency...Alpena...Benzie...Grand
Traverse...Kalkaska...Crawford...Manistee... Wexford...and
Missaukee counties in northern Lower Michigan.

.HYDROLOGIC CONDITIONS: Precipitation through the summer months
(June-August) was generally from 75 to 125 percent of normal.
Across eastern Upper Michigan June was the wettest month of the
summer with precipitation 150 to 200+ percent of normal...things
started to dry out in July with below normal rainfall though most
areas received at least 50 percent of normal precipitation. A
similar trend was noted in August. Precipitation during the fall
months (September-November) started out below normal for
September (less than 50 percent of normal with some areas less
than 25 percent of normal) and October (25 to 75 percent of
normal). But November precipitation was above normal in most
locations...more than 200 percent of normal across northern
Chippewa county and in the higher terrain of eastern Antrim/
western Otsego/northwest Kalkaska counties mainly due to a
significant lake effect snow event during Thanksgiving weekend.

December precipitation was above normal in most areas...with the
heaviest precipitation (150-200+ percent of normal) concentrated
over the typical northwest flow lake effect snow areas. Traverse
City recorded its second snowiest December on record (48.2
inches)...Gaylord its fourth snowiest December (57.9 inches)...
and Houghton Lake its 9th snowiest (23.4 inches).

January 2025 precipitation was largely been by location relative
to the Lake Superior and Lake Michigan snowbelt areas.
Precipitation departures of 150-200 percent of normal occurred
mainly between Grand Traverse Bay and the I-75 corridor in
northwest Lower Michigan (bounded roughly by the M-68 and M-72
corridors to the north and south respectively)...the typical Lake
Michigan snow belt regions. Precipitation departures of 100-125
percent of normal have occurred over northern Chippewa county
adjacent to Whitefish Bay. Sault Ste. Marie recorded their second
snowiest January on record (58.4 inches). As of February
7th...total seasonal snowfall at Sault Ste. Marie...Gaylord...and
Traverse City have already exceeded the their normal seasonal
snowfall total. Outside of the snowbelts...precipitation was only
25-50 percent of normal from far eastern Presque Isle county south
into Iosco/southeast Ogemaw counties...and less than 25 percent
of normal across parts of Gladwin/Arenac counties. These drier
than normal regions for January mostly correspond to the areas
remaining in the severe drought category.

Temperatures for the summer came out pretty much near normal; for
the fall months as a whole (September-November)...Sault Ste.
Marie recorded its warmest fall on record (+5.4 degrees) as did
Gaylord (+7.7 degrees). Second warmest falls on record occurred
at Pellston (+4.6 degrees) and Traverse City (+4.9 degrees)...
third warmest at Alpena (+4.3 degrees)...and ninth warmest at
Houghton Lake (+3.3 degrees). December temperatures averaged from
1 to 3 degrees above normal...a thirteenth consecutive month of
above normal temperatures dating back to December 2023. This
occurred despite the abundant snowfall...with a couple of thaws
(December 7th-10th/15th-17th/26th-30th) helping push temperatures
above normal. All of this warmth throughout the year added up to
the warmest calendar year on record at five of the main
climatological stations...Houghton Lake ended up tying the record
warmest year.

Mean temperatures for January 2025 ended up with 1 to 2 degrees
either side of normal...this despite of a particularly cold spell
from the 19th-24th of January.

Soil moisture is near normal across eastern Upper and far northern
Lower Michigan (north of M-32) and in the 20th to 30th percentile
elsewhere. Streamflows on northern Michigan rivers are below
normal on the Au Sable and Manistee Rivers...and near normal
elsewhere with fluctuations in river levels due to ice activity.

.SUMMARY OF IMPACTS: No known impacts at this time.

.LOCAL DROUGHT OUTLOOK: A period of below normal temperatures is
expected through next week. Widespread accumulating snow is
expected on Saturday...which should help build the snowpack across
northeast Lower areas in the highest drought categories. Snow
will be tapering off to some lake effect snow showers Sunday.

The 6 to 10 day outlook issued by the Climate Prediction Center
valid for the period of February 12-16 2025 has higher probabilities
for below normal temperatures and above normal precipitation.

The seasonal drought outlook which is valid from February through
April 2025 is predicting a slow improvement in drought conditions
heading into late winter and the first month of Spring. It is
anticipated that areas currently in the D2 drought category will
improve to at least the D1 category during Spring.

.NEXT ISSUANCE DATE: This product will be updated Thursday
February 13, 2025. This will also be the same day that the first
spring flood outlook for 2025 will be released.

.RELATED WEB SITES: Additional information on current drought
conditions may be found at the following web addresses:

US Drought Monitor: https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu
US Drought Information System: https://www.drought.gov
NOAA Drought Page: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

Additional water and river information:

NWS Office of Water Prediction (OWP): https://water.noaa.gov
US Geological Survey (USGS): https://water.usgs.gov
US Army Corps of Engineers (USACE): https://www.usace.army.mil

.ACKNOWLEDGMENTS: The Drought Monitor is a multi-agency effort
involving the National Weather Service and National Centers for
Environmental Information, the USDA, state and regional center
climatologists and the National Drought Mitigation Center.
Information for this statement has been gathered from NWS and FAA
observation sites, state cooperative extension services, the
USDA, USACE and USGS.

.CONTACT INFORMATION: If you have questions or comments about
this Drought Information Statement, please contact:

National Weather Service
8800 Passenheim Road
Gaylord, MI 49735
Phone...989-731-3384
w-apx.webmaster@noaa.gov

$$

JPB