936
FXUS63 KAPX 191933
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
333 PM EDT Thu Sep 19 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain/thunder chances return Friday

- Increasing rain chances later Sunday into Sunday night

- Cooler with additional rain chances next week

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 327 PM EDT Thu Sep 19 2024

Pattern Synopsis:

Ridging will continue to fold over the Great Lakes and southeast
Canada as a well-defined wave evident on satellite imagery pivots
across the northern Great Plains tonight. Said wave will begin to
lift toward Hudson Bay Friday morning as associated troughing on the
backside works over the Great Lakes. A weak cold front also looks to
sweep across the Midwest tonight and work into the Great Lakes on
Friday.

Forecast Details:

Rain/thunder chances return Friday -- Primary focus for the short
term period will be the much awaited return of rain chances to
northern Michigan on Friday. Favorable ascent collocated with the
aforementioned front will support showers and storms to the west of
Lake Michigan this evening. This activity is expected to track east
with time tonight, but will encounter a less favorable environment
with eastward extent. Dry low-level air may make it difficult for
any initial precip to reach the ground Friday morning as these
showers wane. The best chances for showers and a isolated/scattered
storms will come late morning/early afternoon with redevelopment as
troughing slides overhead. A narrow corridor of ~500 J/kg MUCAPE
with ~30 kts of deep-layer shear in place may support a few strong
storms, but severe weather is not expected at this time.
Rain/thunder chances will diminish from west to east Friday
afternoon into the evening.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 327 PM EDT Thu Sep 19 2024

Dare we say a somewhat active pattern is forthcoming. Well, that may
end up being overstated but at least there will be periodic chances
for rain in the long term. Any leftover showers Friday evening are
expected to exit off to our east overnight as drying/subsidence
works itself in from the west. Saturday then looks rain free with
short wave ridging taking temporary control of the weather picture.
Extended guidance is then in fairly good agreement that a cutoff
upper level low currently evident on water vapor imagery across
central California heads east northeast and links up with moisture
out of the Gulf of Mexico. This should set the stage for some much
needed rainfall to end the weekend (later Sunday into Sunday night).
Lots of uncertainty remains for next week. As the tropics likely get
more active with a possible system in the Gulf of Mexico, models are
all over the place with what happens up this way. There will be
chances (slight/low end through the week) but confidence isn`t very
high on any of the details (it might not rain much at all next week
but it`s too early to make that call). Temperatures will remain warm
through Sunday (highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s Saturday then the
low and mid 70s Sunday) with a cool down back toward normal levels
next week (mid 60s to near 70).

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 117 PM EDT Thu Sep 19 2024

VFR conditions are expected through the duration of the TAF period.
After diurnal cu diminishes when daytime heating ceases this
evening, cloud cover will spread from west to east across the Great
Lakes tonight into Friday. Rain chances will also follow, working
into western portions of the area early Friday morning. Best chances
for rain and isolated to scattered storms will come late Friday
morning through Friday afternoon. Due to relatively low confidence
in precise timing of thunder chances at this time, explicit mention
of thunder has been excluded from the 18Z TAFs. Otherwise,
light south winds will allow for lake breeze formation to push
inland this afternoon before going weak/calm tonight.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DJC
LONG TERM...AJS
AVIATION...DJC