143
FXUS63 KAPX 161838
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
238 PM EDT Wed Apr 16 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Elevated fire weather danger again on Thursday.

- Periods of showers and thunderstorms Thursday night through Friday
  night.

- A few strong thunderstorms are possible Friday and Friday
  night.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 238 PM EDT Wed Apr 16 2025

Pattern Synopsis and Forecast:

Upstream ridging will center itself just to our west across the
MS Valley down through the south-central Plains by tonight.
With clear skies and calm winds, effective radiational cooling
will occur and drop overnight temperatures to the low 20s to
possible teens for the typical cooler locations. Aforementioned
ridging will track overhead Thursday, setting the stage for
southeast winds and drier air working into northern Michigan.
Southeast winds look to increase through the day Thursday with
gusts 10-15 mph in the morning increasing to 20-25 mph by late
afternoon with the highest gusts focused across northwest Lower.
A combination of breezy winds and lower RH values will result
in elevated fire danger across parts of northern Lower Michigan,
making the burning of ice storm tree debris is highly
discouraged due to this. Moisture slowly advects into the region
from the south through the day Thursday, more so in the
evening/night, in advance of low pressure passing by to our west
responsible for our next precipitation chances Thursday night.

Temperatures look to rebound back into more normal temperatures
for this time of year into the 50s and lower 60s on Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 238 PM EDT Wed Apr 16 2025

Pattern Forecast: Upper-level ridging is expected to be
squarely overhead at the start of the period Thursday evening.
Upstream amplified troughing anchored from near Hudson Bay
southwestward across the Rockies to Baja California will
gradually make headway toward northern MI through the weekend.
Low pressure development on Thursday lee of the Rockies with
warm/moist advection ramping up locally in response. Low
pressure crosses overhead late in the day Friday with Canadian-
originated high pressure sliding overhead, at least briefly,
Saturday-Sunday. Decreased confidence thereafter Sunday night
through the middle of next week as several perturbations will
skirt near the upper MS Valley/Great Lakes, likely phasing in
some nature. Possible low pressure development may bring
additional periods of wet weather, but timing/location remains
fairly uncertain at this point.

Forecast Details: Warm/moist advection driven waves of showers/
storms are expected to begin Thursday evening/night and last at
times into Friday night. Fairly notable moisture advection late
Thursday night through Friday as PWs balloon to 1.10"+ with dew
points climbing into the low-mid 50s. Primary focus revolves
around Friday through Friday evening as steepening lapse rates
aloft promote a plume of instability folding across lower
Michigan. MUCAPE generally favored between 500-1,500 J/kg Friday
afternoon/evening over northern lower -- mainly elevated in
nature, although some hints of up to around 500 J/kg SBCAPE
south of M-32. Given 50-60+ kts of deep layer shear on Friday,
any scattered thunderstorm development as low pressure tracks
nearly overhead will be capable of becoming strong to severe.
Main threat given the elevated nature of instability should be
large hail, but if/where storms are able to become surface
based, strong wind gusts likely to be a component as well, along
with non-zero probabilities for a tornado.

Shower/storm threat ends Friday night with generally tranquil
conditions expected Saturday-Sunday. Cooler temperatures,
however, with highs in the 40s and low 50s. Additional precip
chances return as early as Sunday night, but as was alluded to
above, with lower confidence through early/mid next week. While
there`s likely to be bouts of precipitation in the vicinity of
the Upper Midwest, Great Lakes, and Ohio Valley,
timing/placement details remain fairly uncertain.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 125 PM EDT Wed Apr 16 2025

VFR conditions are expected for the remainder of the TAF
issuance period as high pressure and drier air builds overhead.
Northwest winds will become light/calm tonight and turn south-
southeast for Thursday... Light winds tonight may promote patchy
fog development at some of the TAF sites Thursday morning,
especially KCIU. Southeast winds look to increase through the
day Thursday with gusts 10-15 knots in the morning increasing to
20-25 knots by late afternoon with the highest gusts focused
across northwest Lower. Cloud cover looks to increase later
Thursday afternoon/ evening ahead of precipitation chances
Thursday night.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for LHZ347-
     348.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for LSZ321.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NSC
LONG TERM...MJG
AVIATION...NSC