836
FXUS63 KAPX 211025
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
625 AM EDT Thu Aug 21 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- High pressure will bring dry and seasonably mild weather
  through the remainder of the work week.

- Chances for showers increase Friday night/ Saturday, followed
  by noticeably cooler temperatures and occasional lake-induced
  shower chances into early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 355 AM EDT Thu Aug 21 2025

High pressure will be the dominate weather feature across the
Great Lakes, maintaining a stretch of quiet and comfortable late
summer weather. Overnight clear skies and calm winds supported
the development of patchy fog across areas, which is expected to
burn off quickly as the sun rises. Afternoon temperatures today
look to rise into the upper 70s to low 80s, with light winds
and mostly clear skies (a part from daytime cumulus field).

Tonight, conditions remain quiet as high pressure lingers
overhead. Skies will be mostly clear, with another round of
efficient radiational cooling expected. Overnight lows will
settle into the low to mid 50s for most locations, with some
interior pockets possibly dipping into the upper 40s. A repeat
of patchy fog development will be possible.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 355 AM EDT Thu Aug 21 2025

The period will start with one last quiet day on Friday as the
high pressure gradually slides east. Southerly flow on the
backside of the high will allow for a modest warmup, with
afternoon highs pushing into the upper 70s and low 80s under
partly to mostly sunny skies. By Friday night into Saturday,
attention turns to an approaching cold front tied to a deepening
upper-level trough sliding into the Great Lakes. While overall
moisture profiles along and ahead of this front are somewhat
limited, impressive convergence along it should drive at least a
broken band of showers and perhaps a few embedded thunderstorms
through our area. Behind the front, a much colder airmass will
spill into the region. Highs on Sunday will largely be in the
60s, with nighttime temperatures dropping into the upper 40s to
low 50s. Persistent post frontal northwest flow will also favor
occasional lake induced rain showers...Could also see the threat
for a few waterspouts, especially with any yet to be determined
passing surface troughs. Conditions remain on the cooler side
through early next week, with Monday and Tuesday both featuring
highs in the 60s and the continued chances for isolated light
showers, especially in favored northwest flow areas.

By midweek, surface high pressure is expected to return,
bringing drier weather and gradually moderating temperatures.
Highs should rebound into the low 70s by Wednesday with
overnight lows in the upper 40s to low 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 624 AM EDT Thu Aug 21 2025

Patchy dense fog development from overnight is expected to dissipate
in the next few hours as diurnal heating/mixing ensues with the
sunrise. VSBY restrictions may linger past 12Z, but VFR conditions
are anticipated for most areas through this evening. Patchy FG/BR
may lead to additional VSBY restrictions late in the issuance
period. Light north winds will allow for lake breeze formation to
penetrate inland this afternoon.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NSC
LONG TERM...NSC
AVIATION...DJC