944
FXUS63 KAPX 180445
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1145 PM EST Sun Nov 17 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Periodic rain Monday night onward with gusty winds at times.
  At least low probabilities of some snow Thursday - Saturday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1010 PM EST Sun Nov 17 2024

Low level ridging continues to build into the Western Great
Lakes region in the wake of a cold front that passed thru our
area during the day. Skies have cleared across our entire CWA...
and winds continue to gradually diminish. Made some minor
adjustments to overnight cloud cover based on latest satellite
trends. Otherwise...expect a clear night with overnight lows
cooling into the low to mid 30s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 221 PM EST Sun Nov 17 2024

A moisture starved cold front will move through the region later
this afternoon into this evening. No precipitation is expected
with or even behind the front with only limited over lake
instability developing as cooler air moves in. Satellite
imagery shows skies have cleared off across central and northern
Wisconsin. This clearing trend is expected to spread eastward
behind the cold front later today/this evening. A weak area of
high pressure builds in tonight and holds through Monday
morning. Clouds are then expected to increase and thicken Monday
afternoon in advance of low pressure which will bring rain to
the region Monday night into Tuesday (see below). Cooler tonight
but still mild by mid November standards with lows mainly in
the 30s to near 40. Mild Monday as well with highs in the low
and mid 50s (about 10 degrees above average for the date).
West southwest winds will be a bit gusty through this evening
then diminish early tonight.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 221 PM EST Sun Nov 17 2024

Pattern Forecast: At the start of the period Monday evening, upper-
level ridging is expected to be situated atop the western Great
Lakes with with attendant surface high pressure just east of
northern MI. Both of these features quickly get shunted east as
upstream closed mid-level wave and surface reflection over the
central Plains treks northeast to northern Minnesota by Tuesday
afternoon. By Wednesday/Thursday, additional mid-level energy
arriving into the nation`s midsection will help focus parent
troughing farther east with surface low reorganization toward the
eastern Great Lakes. Broad cyclonic flow expected locally on the
backside of this system into into the weekend. All this to say, a
rather active, and eventually cooler, week lies ahead for northern
Michigan and the Great Lakes region as a whole.

Forecast Details: The active week of weather ahead begins Monday
night with isentropically driven rain showers chances arriving from
southwest to northeast as early as 03z. Low-level dry may inhibit
quick northeastward progress overnight, but nonetheless, expecting
at least some showers to reach pretty much area-wide by 12-15z
Tuesday. The bulk of this initial wave of showers likely to exit
Tuesday afternoon, although continued grungy and perhaps drizzly
into Tuesday night. Increasingly breezy winds anticipated through
this time frame as well with gusts as high as 30 mph.

While there`s high confidence in conditions remaining active
Wednesday onward, uncertainty increases with respect to the details
for the latter half of the week. That uncertainty really becomes
magnified around where secondary low pressure develops, and how
quickly and to what degree it intensifies -- both of which would
play a pretty big role to additional shower coverage and gusty wind
potential. Either way you slice it, periods of showers are expected
to return Wednesday, potentially lasting at times right on into the
upcoming weekend with a more amplified solution that draws in longer
lasting colder air, allowing for more robust lake effect/enhanced
showers to continue to the end of the forecast period and beyond.
While the bulk of this late week precip is expected to fall as rain,
forecast thermal profiles aren`t far from taking on a more snowy
solution. While widespread snow would appear highly unlikely, could
low-level temps drop a degree or two to support a changeover to snow
at times Thursday - Saturday (especially in the higher terrain)?
Certainly plausible and supported by the 00z/12z suite of ensemble
means, which nearly all show at least a little accumulation over
inland areas by Saturday morning. Any confidence in a more robust/
impactful snow event remains incredibly low.

The late week time frame likely to feature temperatures cooler than
we`ve had over the past few weeks, but what`d be considered more
normal for late November. Highs likely topping out in the upper 30s
to low 40s Thursday onward. Continued periods of gusty winds likely
as well, especially in the more amplified late week solutions. 75-
90th percentile wind gusts still approaching high end gales over
parts of Lake Michigan/Huron with at least low probabilities for
wind advisory criteria over land.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1145 PM EST Sun Nov 17 2024

High pressure will continue to build into the Great Lakes region
overnight and Monday in the wake of a cold front that swept
thru our region during the day. Chances of rain showers will
again increase Monday night as deep low pressure lifts N/NE out
of the Central Plains toward the Western Great Lakes. VFR
conditions will remain the rule for the next 24 hours despite
increasing chances of showers Monday night. Surface winds will
remain from the W/NW AOB 10 kts tonight and Monday...and will
then shift to the east Monday night.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MLR
SHORT TERM...AJS
LONG TERM...MJG
AVIATION...MLR