461
FXUS63 KAPX 122339
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
739 PM EDT Sun Oct 12 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Brief warm up Monday with breezy south winds

- Generally dry cold front passage late Monday into Tuesday

- Chances for rain return mid week and at the end of the week

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 221 PM EDT Sun Oct 12 2025

Mostly sunny skies with fair wx CU over northern lower and partly
cloudy skies over eastern upper this afternoon. Breezy southeast
winds are being seen over NE lower, eastern upper, and the northern
parts of Lk Huron. A surface pressure gradient is strengthening with
a surface high pressure to our NE and an incoming surface low over
the northern planes converging over the western Great Lakes region.

The cut off low to our east resides under a larger upper ridge that
extends far into northeastern CAN. The incoming system (currently
over the northern plains) will be forced NE into CAN tonight into
Monday. It will drag a trailing cold front with it that will track
more eastward. Breezy south winds will be seen tomorrow afternoon
ahead of the boundary. CAMs are starting to align with the idea that
this boundary will be moisture starved, however some more moist
outliers do still exist. Nonetheless, confidence is growing that
forcing will remain weak over northern lower and eastern upper-
leading most CAMs to output fairly tame rainfall forecasts. Stronger
confidence remains for convection to be minimal due to the lack of
moisture and a decent low level cap ahead of the boundary. Since
features will not be nicely stacked (MI remains pretty removed from
the upper trough - seeing mostly zonal west winds overhead) colder
air aloft will take its time to move in and only weak shear will
exist, leading to low chances for waterspouts.

The most likely scenario will be eastern upper and near the tip of
the mitt will see intermittent light rain and clouds late Monday,
with embedded showers along some parts of the front as it moves
through Monday evening and night. Clouds and some light
rain/sprinkles will be seen over other parts of northern lower late
Monday. In total rain amounts remain well under a half of an inch,
with the highest amounts near the SOO and Whitefish point. Low
chances exists for a few stronger embedded storms to be present
along the boundary, and if they can form the main hazards will be
brief moderate to heavy rain and a few lightning strikes.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 221 PM EDT Sun Oct 12 2025

Remnant moisture from Raymond floods into the central plains as an
upper ridge builds over the SE CONUS. A stronger Pacific system
will move over the western CONUS Tuesday, inducing a CO lee
side low. A stationary boundary will attempt to set up somewhere
in the central plains as surface high pressure resides over the
northern half and southerly winds are seen over the southern
half. All the while, moisture in the mid to upper levels flows
over it. As the large scale pattern amplifies, rain/showers will
rotate around the upper high late Tuesday into early Wednesday.
Some guidance is now hinting that some light rain/clouds could
reach areas of NW lower, however amounts will remain light as
we again remain far away from forcing and the moisture source.

The stronger upper trough over the western CONUS opens up and moves
east the later half of the work week. The trough and cold front will
move over the state near the end of the week, brining widespread
rain and storm chances. Lots of uncertainty with exact timing and
intensity still remains.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 738 PM EDT Sun Oct 12 2025

Breezy S/SE winds prevail at the surface, 5-10kts...but expect LLWS
around 1500ft around 25-35kts through the night, starting from the
SE early and becoming S around 4-6z. Winds largely taper off during
the day Monday, becoming S in the late morning and SW in the
afternoon behind a slow-moving front...though may not reach APN by
the end of this TAF period. Fog/low stratus possible tonight, esp
where winds decouple...but increasing high clouds could limit fog
compared to last night. Fog timeframes are through 4-6z at most
sites, esp APN, and then another shot between 8-13z,  like last
night...with IFR/LIFR visbys possible. Otherwise...expect mainly VFR
conditions, though not impossible a few sites go MVFR through about
18-20z with the front. VCSH in the TAFs for the afternoon, but not
confident in how well any rain will develop and/or reach the
ground.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Monday for LHZ345>347.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Monday for LMZ341.
     Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Monday for LSZ321-322.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ELD
LONG TERM...ELD
AVIATION...FEF