137
FXUS63 KAPX 060010
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
810 PM EDT Tue Aug 5 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Less smoky, but warmer and more unsettled weather on the way

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 331 PM EDT Tue Aug 5 2025

Split flow continues...with northern stream ridging centered over
Manitoba/Hudson Bay...and southern stream troughing persisting over
the OH Valley. Desert SW ridge remains firm despite troughing over
the NW US and Intermountain West...with a handful of niblets trying
to poke their way across the northern CONUS. Upper ridging hangs
near/off the southeastern US...with a weak BCZ holding right along
the coast. Deepest moisture remains steadfast over the southeastern
US amid better return flow...but some moisture noted from the
central Plains up into central Canada. A weak stationary boundary
drapes from New England back toward Lake Superior...with an
elongated PV maxima stretching from north of MN to southern Quebec,
just to our north.

Troughing across western Canada will start to punt the ridge axis
eastward...helping punt the surface high eastward...ultimately
allowing for southerly flow to take over more of the MS Valley going
into the middle of the week. This should, in theory, start to punt
the smoke out of the region...allowing Mr. Blue Sky to come out of
hiding again. Signals for subtle troughing in the area could serve
to trigger development of some showers and storms, though, as we go
into midweek...along with the start of a warming trend expected for
the latter half of the week.

Primary Forecast Concerns through Wednesday:

Pop-up showers and storms into this evening and again Wednesday...
Starting to see diurnal cu and a few showers popping across the EUP
again this afternoon, where better moisture/instability continue to
pool, along and south of PV max and attendant surface boundary. Will
expect things to hang around till around 00/01z this evening, fading
with a loss of diurnal heating. Soundings suggest enough instability
aloft for thunder/lightning with any storms across the EUP. Less
confidence in anything developing along the Lake MI lake breeze in
NW Lower, as there should generally be less in the way of synoptic
assistance and moisture pooling to garner instability.
However...noting there has been a subtle decrease in smokiness
overhead per satellite this morning/afternoon across parts of the
area...do wonder if this could be enough of a boost to diurnal
heating to try to pop some showers down this way through the rest of
the daytime hours.

Increasing moisture tonight/Wednesday should help our atmosphere`s
ability to destabilize, despite slightly reduced diurnal heating
potential due to smoke (though the smoke should start its departure
later Wednesday and beyond). Flow should still remain light enough
for lake breeze convergence to help focus shower/storm
development...most likely across the interior. Noting temps today
are managing to get into the lower 80s fairly well...do wonder if
tomorrow will end up a touch warmer, which could allow for better
diurnal destabilization as well.

Fog again tonight...overall stagnant pattern suggests we will end up
with some fog and/or low stratus again tonight; signals point toward
an increase in theta-e advection across NE Lower overnight (possibly
from that niblet over IN/OH this afternoon), which could further
enhance the moisture content of the air for fog development
purposes...and we should have some subtle PV crossing the region as
well. Think this will again be our problem area tonight...with
prevailing easterly flow perhaps aiding in saturation with some
subtle uplift into the interior higher terrain.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 331 PM EDT Tue Aug 5 2025

Day 2-3 (Thursday-Friday)...Warm advection across the central CONUS
Wednesday night into Thursday should keep the threat of
showers/storms in our vicinity going into the end of the work week.
Ridge axis also looks to build into the region later Thursday into
Friday...which should further enhance the idea of increasingly warm
and humid conditions for the latter half of the week. (Bonus points:
it should not be as smoky.) Think it`s possible we may need to keep
an eye out for some periodic upstream convective complexes...though
unclear attm if/where these will develop.

Days 4-5 (Saturday-Sunday)...Troughing crossing southern
Canada/northern US will keep southwesterly flow going across the
Upper Great Lakes into the weekend. It will become increasingly warm
and humid, with the core of the warmest air likely crossing northern
Michigan on Saturday (850mb temps around 20C again?). As trough
moves eastward...expect development of showers/storms across the
Upper Midwest Saturday night into Sunday as a weak cold front
stretches across the Midwest. A lot of details to tease out in the
upcoming days...but the bottom line is we will be looking at a very
summer like weekend this weekend. (Bonus points: we probably stay
less smoky based on continued southwesterly flow.)

Days 6-7 (Monday-Tuesday)...Signals point toward the overall
boundary getting strung out over the region going into the start of
next week...which lends to some uncertainty in how things will
evolve. Certainly close enough to the region we could be looking at
some continued activity...though it`s possible we could turn a bit
troughy toward the middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 810 PM EDT Tue Aug 5 2025

Hazy skies are expected to persist across northern Michigan through
the issuance period, contributing to VSBY reductions at TAF sites
tonight and Wednesday. As was the case last night, VSBYs are
expected to drop later this evening and tonight as smoke/haze
contribute to BR/FG formation -- likely down to IFR/LIFR at times at
CIU, PLN, and APN. VSBYs are expected to improve to 5SM or better
shortly after sunrise for most locations, although haze will likely
remain. Relatively light southeast winds on Wednesday will allow for
lake breeze formation to push inland from Lake Michigan during the
afternoon.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FEF
LONG TERM...FEF
AVIATION...DJC