464
FXUS63 KAPX 121437
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1037 AM EDT Wed Mar 12 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry/quiet conditions through Friday with a warming trend.

- Rain (and possible thunder) chances returning toward the end
  of this week with breezy to windy conditions and potential for
  well above normal warmth returning as well.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1037 AM EDT Wed Mar 12 2025

Current forecast remains on track with no major changes. For
details, please see the short and long term discussion below.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 213 AM EDT Wed Mar 12 2025

     Warming trend starts today with increasing sunshine this
afternoon...

Large area of high pressure remains centered over Southern Ontario
and much of the Great Lakes region early this morning. A look
upstream shows a warm front and attendant low pressure extending
along the front range of the Canadian and US Rockies. Mid and high
clouds are steadily increasing across the Northern Plains...Upper
Mississippi Valley and the Western Great Lakes well in advance of
this approaching warm front. Temps continue to drop toward overnight
lows ranging from the teens across Eastern Upper Michigan to the low
to mid 20s across all of Northern Lower Michigan.

Mid/high clouds will continue to stream into our entire CWA during
the morning as the warm front lifts northeastward thru the northern
tier of the US and into Southern Canada. These clouds will thin
during the afternoon as WAA strengthens across our CWA in SE low
level flow. Mostly sunny skies and WAA will boost afternoon highs
into the mid to upper 30s across Eastern Upper Michigan and into the
40s across Northern Lower Michigan. Then exception will be along our
Lake Huron shoreline where easterly winds off of cold Lake Huron
will limit afternoon highs to the mid to upper 30s. Expect partly to
mostly clear skies across our CWA tonight...with overnight lows
cooling mainly into the 20s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 213 AM EDT Wed Mar 12 2025

Pattern Synopsis / Forecast:

A trough ejecting into the Plains will negatively tilt, leading to
significant ridging amplification over the eastern CONUS toward the
end of the week. A deepening surface low will then close off as it
moves northeast toward Minnesota, with another trough ejection
driving deeper moisture surging across the lower Great Lakes as
cooler air builds into the region by the conclusion of the forecast
period once the closed low pressure system passes to our northwest,
and warm air advection and southerly flow flip northwesterly
Saturday night.

Primary Forecast Points:

Temps: Warming into the 40s-50s Thursday (likely nearing or
exceeding 60 in parts of northern lower away from Lake Huron with SE
flow). Lake breeze processes probably materialize and lead to cooler
conditions near Lake Michigan by the afternoon hours. Warming well
into the 50s north, and well into the 60s in northern lower Friday
and Saturday (outside shot of some 70s?), cooling back to the 30s
and 40s Sunday and through the remainder of the forecast period.
Still some uncertainties in Friday`s temperatures... if we get
socked in with clouds, they could be reduced quite considerably...
so the anomalous warmth on that particular day is still not a done
deal.

Precip Chances: Expecting things to remain dry through the day on
Friday before a warm front races across the area, bringing a
decaying line of showers and thunderstorms across the region from
southwest to northeast late Friday night. Dry slotting probably
brings more dry breaks into the picture for a little break in the
action Saturday, but with warming and the arrival of somewhat higher
dewpoints, instability driven thunderstorms will become possible
later in the day, especially as a surface cold front works its way
into the region. Still looks like the backside moisture will be
rather meager, and with shallow inversion heights and barely
marginal cold temperatures, not really anticipating much of a lake
convection response leading to snowfall Sunday into Monday, though
it should be noted that if we can muster out an inch or two of
synoptic snow on the backside of the system, with falling
temperatures and gusty winds, it could lead to some pesky winter
travel impacts, primarily on Sunday.

Rainfall Amounts and Severe Potential: Given the transient nature of
the decaying convection, not really anticipating gangbusters
rainfall amounts across the region. These showers and storms will
probably moving 50-60mph, so the odds of one location seeing more
that 30-45 minutes of rainfall are pretty slim. Considering the
amount of dust this system is going to loft from the southwest, it
is possible that places observe a "dirty rain" if this dust plume
can overlap with the overnight precipitation and again Saturday
evening. Probably looking at a general 0.10-0.20" of rain from this
round of precipitation, with higher amounts in any storms.
Additional 0.25" or so of rainfall possible from any resulting dry
slot thunderstorms later in the day Saturday as the cold front
passes through the region. Severe potential is there, but will
probably be limited in nature considering a lack of instability.
That being said, impressive bulk shear approaching 60kts, and 850mb
flow of 60kts is supportive of some damaging wind gusts making it to
the surface. In addition, shear vectors aligning parallel to the
boundary support a linear convective mode, especially points south
and east (and especially downstate) where better instability looks
to materialize ahead of the cold frontal boundary.

Winds: Tight pressure gradient from this system will lead to quite
the increase in southerly winds. The windiest day looks to be
Saturday, when strong boundary layer flow and the potential for
mixing in the dry slot may promote some 45mph+ wind gusts at times.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 645 AM EDT Wed Mar 12 2025

VFR conditions and dry wx are expected today and tonight as a
moisture-starved warm front lifts thru the Western Great Lakes
region. Surface winds will remain from the SE AOB 10 kts.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...NSC
SHORT TERM...MLR
LONG TERM...HAD
AVIATION...MLR