412
FXUS63 KAPX 272324
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
724 PM EDT Thu Mar 27 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mixed precipitation builds across the northwoods this Friday
  through Sunday. Areas near the Tip of the Mitt and north can
  expect freezing rain Friday evening through Saturday morning.
  Another round of scattered mixed precipitation expected
  Saturday night-Sunday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 341 PM EDT Thu Mar 27 2025

Pattern Synopsis and Forecast:

An upper-level trough will shift eastward as a ridge of high
pressure builds in from the west. Rising heights have produced
mostly clear skies today with dry weather and low relative
humidity values across northeast Lower, with values dipping into
the low 30s. A rebound is expected as clouds begin to fill in
and increase in coverage through tonight with our next
precipitation chances moving in early Friday morning. Ongoing
northwest winds will become light and variable tonight before
turning southeast late tonight/ early Friday.

Temperatures will cool into the teens tonight across the
eastern U.P and 20s across northern Lower.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 341 PM EDT Thu Mar 27 2025

Pattern Synopsis:

Current midlevel troughing over the northeastern CONUS
continues to advect northward towards Nova Scotia, resulting in
a more zonal flow set up for the Great Lakes Region this
weekend. Air masses collide over the midwest with midlevel
saturated air from the west coast, warm/moist air from the Gulf
of America, and cold dry air from the north creating a
stationary boundary over the CWA beginning this Friday. With low
level temperatures hovering around freezing, rounds multiple
precipitation types will impact the area beginning as early as
Friday afternoon through Sunday before subsidence aloft finally
and returns high pressure to the region.

Quiet and dry weather breifly returns this Tuesday.
Temperatures however; remain cold for April unfortunately due to
longwave troughing over the Great Lakes opening the region up
to cold/continental air from the north. Long range ensembles
continue to depict another weak surface level low deepening as
it transits across the CWA around the Wednesday Thursday
timeframe. Strong low level winds appear to advect some warm and
unstable air from the Gulf, resulting in showers and storms on
the warm side and more mixed precip/snow north of the low.
Confidence however remains pretty low as storm track remains
very sporatic between different model runs. Active weather
returning next week remains likely, but what the impacts are
remain uncertain before future model runs begin to lock in the
forecast next week.

Primary Forecast Concerns:

Rainfall will commence at the start of the forecast period as
the first Pacific wave pushes through the region. Scattered
showers will spread across most of northern lower while precip
near the "Tip of the Mitt" and north will remain as mostly snow
and sleet. Roadway conditions quickly worsen Friday evening for
areas near the Straits and northward as a low level jet advects
a warm air aloft of the nearly frozen surfaces of the CWA.
Accumulating icing will build across these parts as overnight
diurnal cooling keeps temperatures below freezing. Ice
accumulations will vary; going from nearly a glaze near
Whitefish Point due to a much weaker warm nose and amounts as
high as a half inch or more for localized areas closer to the
Straits/Mackinac County. With such a tight thermal gradient and
an unstable layer, thunderstorms are likely to be ongoing Friday
night with one or two storms producing hail remaining possible.


Mid-day Saturday will provide a brief lull period of scattered
showers along Mid Michigan as the stationary boundary moves
southward. A second round of Mixed precipitation is likely to
return some freezing rain/freezing drizzle. The majority of the
CWA will be near freezing at the surface so unfortunately, more
widespread icing chances are likely. Local temperature
influences will impact a glaze of ice however such as high
terrain areas of northern lower more likely to see ice compared
to low laying areas. Eastern Upper however will remain colder,
resulting in mixed precip including FZRA, sleet and even some
wet snow for some northerly locations before cold air advection
delivers a quick shot of snow Monday morning as this system
departs.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 723 PM EDT Thu Mar 27 2025

Cloud cover will increase late tonight heading into Friday.
Precip chances will also increase Friday, especially in the
afternoon. This will be rain in most of northern lower MI, at
least initially. However, at CIU, a wintry mix including FZRA is
expected by afternoon.

Nw winds lightening this evening. East winds develop Friday.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...Winter Storm Watch from Friday afternoon through Saturday
     morning for MIZ016>018-098.
     Winter Storm Watch from Friday afternoon through Saturday
     morning for MIZ086>088-095>097.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for
     LHZ345>349.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LSZ321-
     322.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NSC
LONG TERM...SJC
AVIATION...JZ