696
FXUS63 KAPX 071010
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
610 AM EDT Sat Jun 7 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry through much of the weekend with next rain chance coming
  later on Sunday as a cold front passes through the area.

- Cooler with shower chances to start off next week.

- Trending more toward normal heading through the remainder of next
  week. Watching for potentially active pattern after midweek.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 224 AM EDT Sat Jun 7 2025

Dilapidated cold frontal boundary has effectively begun the process
of washing out downstate, with minimal low level moisture noted at
the moment, courtesy of a paltry, yet, highly effective area of
surface high pressure camping out over Lake Superior. Result is just
a few lingering high clouds across parts of the area, though most of
the area has cleared out quite nicely compared to the daytime hours
which featured borderline overcast skies with the passage of the now
downstate cold front. Radiational cooling response well underway
across the board, with temps on their way back into the 40s and 50s
by the break of dawn. Surface high pressure influence remains strong
into Saturday, though as a wave rides a stationary front stalled
over the Ohio Valley, anticipating clouds to increase in areas south
of M-32, but with no effects other than perhaps stunting high
temperatures. Highs peak in the 70s again Saturday.

As that wave of higher clouds continues its passage through the
region, anticipating most spots probably don`t have as aggressive of
a radiational cooling response, especially south of the bridge where
thicker cloud cover should reside. With increasing flow ahead of an
approaching cold front associated with a digging upper level low
currently residing over northern Manitoba, milder temperatures are
in store tonight, with lows in the low-to-upper 50s (warmest west,
PLN, TVC, MBL may struggle to get below 60), perhaps some 40s across
NE lower and eastern upper.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 224 AM EDT Sat Jun 7 2025

Sunday starts dry with southerly return flow really kicking up as
the pressure gradient between departing high pressure and the
approaching upper low becomes more and more pinched with time.
Clouds will be on the increase through the day from west to east,
with highs peaking in the mid to upper 70s, perhaps touching 80 in
places. Some showers become possible west of I-75 after 20z as a
cold front approaches from the west. With ample mixing anticipated
through the day, not anticipating much in the way of instability...
perhaps a few hundred Joules of MLCAPE at best, and much of this
will be leftover stratiform rain by the time it gets here, with
perhaps a rumble of thunder or two. This batch of rain will be quite
transient, so despite PWATs pushing 1.40 and a solid heavier rain
profile through the column with ample saturation, most spots
probably pick up anywhere from 0.30 to 0.60" of rain... locally
higher in any embedded downpours / thunder. The steadier rain will
clear by dawn (perhaps lingering a couple hours into the morning
near Saginaw Bay up to Alpena), leaving some residual shower
activity in its wake Monday morning. Continued forcing and lingering
synoptic moisture will allow for an uptick in shower activity later
Monday as diurnal instability builds, which may allow for a rumble
of thunder or two (severe weather not anticipated)... and highs
struggle to get much past 70, and some places hold in the 60s. Rinse
and repeat for Tuesday... though a few degrees cooler, with more
afternoon shower activity. Should be noted that there will be plenty
of dry time in between showers, so not really anticipating a
washout, but any rain is welcome as always.

In the wake of this system`s passage by Wednesday, surface high
pressure builds into the region as the upper low is forced eastward
by amplifying ridging in the Plains. Warming temperatures and
increasing humidity seem to be in the cards later in the week, with
highs rebounding soundly into the 70s and 80s. Will need to watch
this pattern as this does spell active WNW flow MCS type convection
over the Plains that will ride the ridge into the Great Lakes and
Corn Belt regions. Current glance at the steering pattern supports a
more southward dive into downstate for any of this activity, but it
will all be dependent on where a stationary boundary sets up. More
details to come with time, but it is not impossible for us to get
into a more active pattern later next week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 556 AM EDT Sat Jun 7 2025

VFR conditions are expected through the period. Winds will be
light, generally a north to northeast direction, especially KAPN
as lake breeze develops this afternoon. Dry conditions through
the period with occasional mid to high clouds.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HAD
LONG TERM...HAD
AVIATION...JLD