953
FXUS63 KAPX 161051
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
651 AM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

-Above normal warmth continues today and Thursday withs highs
remaining in the 60s.

-Low pressure returns rounds of beneficial rainfall and some
potential storms to the Great Lakes region Thursday night through
early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 335 AM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025

Pattern Synopsis...Midlevel ridging pattern with its axis centered
over the Great Lakes region will continue pleasant and mild weather
today. Upstream troughing developing closed low pressure lee of the
Rockies and tracking northeast until it reaches the Manitoba/Ontario
region this weekend. Attached surface cyclone will return some
beneficial rainfall along with potential embedded storms at times
this weekend into early next week.

Forecast Details...

Today...A final day of partly cloudy skies and mild weather continue
today as surface high pressure remains directly over Michigan.
Subsidence directly over the CWA will carry calm winds along with
diurnal heating high temps into the low/mid 60s across the region.
Only changing condtions will be afternoon/evening increasing cloud
cover as the approaching warm front makes its way to the Great Lakes
region.

Tonight...Previously mentioned warm front will stretch across the
upper plains into the Great Lakes region shortly after sunset
tonight. As a result, stratiform rainfall will spread west to east
tonight with the first amount a measurable rain in a while to the
CWA. Expect widespread medium probabilities (40% to 60%) of a
quarter inch for areas north of M-32. Model soundings north of the
bridge depict deeper saturation layers with minor amounts of
midlevel instability that could deliver locally higher amounts of a
half inch or more from embedded convective rainfall.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 335 AM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025

Friday and Saturday...Ongoing rainfall from the previously mentioned
warm front will continue Friday morning. Subsequent warm advection
finally moves northeast placing the CWA into the systems warm
sector. A brief precip-free period returns Friday afternoon with
daytime highs remaining in the low to mid 60s. A second line of
showers track across the state Friday night through Saturday morning
associated with a cold front. Low to medium probabilities of an
additional tenth inch or less is expected for most locations, but
some lingering instability with embedded convection could deliver
locally higher totals of a half inch or more.

Sunday and Monday...Long range guidance tends towards midlevel
closed low pressure moving towards Hudson Bay early next week.
Progressive NW flow from the Canadian Rockies will push a secondary
wave into the Great Lakes Region this Sunday. Favorable jet dynamics
lead to the deepening of surface low pressure and stronger moisture
tracking across the CWA. Highest probabilities of QPF remain between
an additional quarter to half inch at this time, but latest model
trends could result in higher amounts of QPF this Sunday with
future guidance.

Tuesday and Wednesday...Longwave midlevel troughing pattern remains
straddled across the Great Lakes Region through the remainder of the
long term period. Embedded height disturbances tracking through the
region will continue chances of precipitation at times through
midweek next week, but measurable QPF probs remain low.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 651 AM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025

Any BR that manages to materialize before daybreak will quickly
go by the leeway early this morning. Otherwise, VFR and light
winds, generally NE to E, through the day today... trending E to
SSE overnight. Warm front moves into the region later tonight,
bringing potential for SHRA... with most impacts to be had at
PLN and CIU, where some MVFR CIGs and VSBYs are not entirely
impossible. All other sites most likely hold VFR with elevated
cloud bases, and any SHRA likely holds light enough to not cause
sub-VFR conditions.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SJC
LONG TERM...SJC
AVIATION...HAD