236
FXUS63 KAPX 091849
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
249 PM EDT Sun Mar 9 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Springlike temperatures on Monday

- Series of clippers through mid-week; best chances for snow favor
the eastern U.P. with limited accumulations.

- Gusty winds Monday night/ Tuesday.

- Widespread rain (and possible thunder) chances at the end of
  this week with the potential for well above normal warmth.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 237 PM EDT Sun Mar 9 2025

Pattern Synopsis: Fast quasi-zonal flow across the northern tier of
the CONUS with rapid transitions in weather/temperatures.  Weak low
amplitude ridging slides across the Great Lakes tonight with strong
warm air advection developing on Monday, along with gusty winds with
a tightening gradient in advance of the next upstream shortwave.
Anomalous warmth (at least for one day) on Monday with high
temperatures near records in some locations.

Forecast Details: Winds diminish tonight with still some lingering
high clouds across the northern half of the area. Lows generally
from the mid 20s to the lower 30s. Anomalous warmth on Monday as a
deepening surface low moves toward western Lake Superior, pushing a
surge of warm air into the Great Lakes. With lots of March sunshine
and strong warm air advection, temperatures will respond with highs
well into the 50s in most areas, with 60s likely in downslope
locations. The exception to this will be over eastern upper with
more clouds and still a healthy snow pack, highs will remain in the
40s.  It will be breezy as deeper mixing taps into the 25kt winds at
the top of the boundary layer.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 237 PM EDT Sun Mar 9 2025

Troughing will continue to shift northeastward as high pressure tries
to build in its wake, leaving the area in a more progressive/ zonal
flow. A moisture starved shortwave and its associated low pressure
look to track across the far western U.P. then northeast into Canada
with pressure gradients tightening between the aformentioned low and
high pressure. As a result, gusty southwest winds (gusts 30-40+ mph)
will turn northwest by Tuesday afternoon as the low and its
attendant cold front continue to exit the region to the northeast.
Temperatures will drop into the 20s and 30s from north to south
through Tuesday morning into the early afternoon, with a slight
chance of light showers possible mainly across the eastern U.P. and
tip of he Mitt if enough moisture can hold on. Dry weather looks to
ensue as surface high pressure pushes in, but a slight chance for
light showers across the eastern U.P. cannot be ruled out Wednesday
night due to a rather unimpactful shortwave traversing north of the
area.

Attention then turns to a low pressure centered across the Plains.
We will have to see how this evolves in the coming days, but
guidance continues to hint at a negatively tilted trough deepening
the aformentioned low and tracking it to the Midwest. Result will be
an increase in rain chances as we look to the end of the forecast
period with temperatures very dependent on where associated features
set-up. Guidance on exact track and placement of its associated
fronts still remain fuzzy this far out, but a good swath of moisture
will be pushed into Northern Michigan, with possible thunder if the
warm front can track far enough north.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1258 PM EDT Sun Mar 9 2025

VFR conditions throughout the period. A weak system sliding
across northern parts of the area this afternoon will bring mid
clouds and a few light rain/snow showers. Winds will be gusty
from the southwest this afternoon up to 20kts at times. Winds
diminish tonight and skies clear (outside of some high clouds).
The gradient begins to tighten again on Monday in advance of our
next upstream weather system. Winds will become gusty once again
from the southwest with just some high clouds. Very mild
temperatures on Monday.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for
     LHZ346>349.
     Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for LMZ323-
     344>346.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...NSC
AVIATION...JK