807
FXUS63 KAPX 161805
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
205 PM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Wetter times ahead (hopefully), with rain chances tonight and
  perhaps more so this weekend

- Some gusty wind potential this weekend...especially on those big
  waters.

- Well above normal temperatures to kick off the weekend trend
  cooler to end it.

- More traditional end of October weather expected next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 203 PM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast:

Sharp north/south running mid/upper level ridging building steadily
east into the western Great Lakes early this afternoon...with its
similarly oriented surface reflection running just a bit ahead of
it. Combination of the above resulting in another dry and sun-filled
day across the Northwoods, along with seasonably mild conditions...
with current temperatures punching up well into the 50s and lower
60s. Maturing warm air advection regime poking into the upper
Mississippi Valley/far western Great Lakes...driven by 40+ knot
southwest low level jet between that upper level ridge and sharp
troughing rotating through the Intermountain West. Attendant
moisture advection and isentropic upglide/deep mass convergence
resulting in a few mostly light showers rotating east across
Minnesota and parts of Wisconsin...with the eastward upper level
extent of this moisture starting to bring some higher level clouds
into our region.

Steady progression of the long wave pattern expected through this
weekend, with upper level ridging cresting our area during the day
Friday...all-the-while western troughing slices northeast across the
Northern Plains into the prairie lands of Canada. Low level jet and
attendant moisture advection follow suite, working into the northern
Lakes later tonight through Friday.

Primary Forecast Concerns:

Shower evolution tonight into Friday morning.

Details:

Top-down saturation of the column will continue heading into this
evening as that low level jet forced isentropic upglide, mass
convergence, and moisture advection work steadily east into the
area. Typical overnight maturation of that low level jet should help
organize shower activity as it moves east, with best deep layer mass
convergence likely to focus from M-32 and points north. Expecting
shower coverage to be most organized in this region tonight, with a
bit more disorganization to shower activity as one heads south. Lack
of any elevated instability and only marginal mid level lapse rates
should preclude any organized thunder potential.

Band(s) of showers will steadily move east Friday, likely exiting
stage right as we head into the afternoon. Increasingly gusty south
winds on backside of northward pivoting warm front will drive
temperatures to several degrees above normal (this despite those
clouds and showers), with afternoon highs mostly in the lower and
middle 60s.
&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 203 PM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast:

Much more typical mid-fall pattern expected heading through this
weekend into next week...driven by various cores of Pacific
originated upper level jet streaks rotating across NOAM. Most
notable of these set to arrive this weekend, helping propel a
deepening shortwave through the Great Lakes. Additional waves set to
arrive next week, keeping the threat of active and wet weather right
through the period.

Primary Forecast Concerns:

Weather associated with this weekends deepening wave, with secondary
focus on addition shower chances next week.

Details:

Long term starts out active as initial weakening cold front brings a
band of showers into the Northwoods Friday night. Likely to see a
few embedded storms as well, but nothing severe expected given lack
of deeper instability and disjointed low and mid level support.
Approach of deep troughing/upper level jet core looks to spawn
cyclogenesis along this front Saturday night, with this low working
quickly northeast along the front into Sunday. Still plenty of
uncertainty on placement and strength of this low...although if
multi-year trends hold...would expect a weaker and more east
displaced solution than most current guidance would suggest. Will
continue to monitor of course, with at least some potential for a
classic fall system...to include widespread rain and gusty winds.
Just too early and too much uncertainty to offer any real specifics.

Again, and is what to be expected with an evolving potentially
active period, specifics are lacking as we head further out into the
extended. With that said, trends do support at least the potential
for another rather vigorous wave to visit the region sometime in the
Tuesday timeframe, with more energy digging within overhead
troughing through the remainder of the extended. Unfortunately,
taking the necessary guidance consensus blend approach forces a long
term riddled with shower chances....when in all likelihood actual
better rain chances will be relegated to much shorter time periods.
Of more certainty is a trend to temperatures a bit more common for
the second half of October...with highs mostly in the 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 154 PM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025

VFR continues through the day today with light winds. Clouds
thicken tonight ahead of the next rain chances. CIGs slowly
lower, to MVFR for KCIU and KPLN, and low VFR for other
locations. Little uncertainty in how low CIGs will be, but best
potential for MVFR CIGs/VIS will be KCIU. No out of the realm
of possibility to touch IFR as well briefly if steadier rain is
able to manifest. -SHRA timing tonight begins around ~03-07Z,
lingering into the early portions of Friday.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM Friday to 6 AM EDT Saturday
     for LHZ346>349.
     Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM Friday to 6 AM EDT Saturday for
     LMZ323-341-342-344>346.
     Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM Friday to 6 AM EDT Saturday
     for LSZ321.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...MSB
AVIATION...JLD