695
FXUS63 KAPX 211823
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
223 PM EDT Mon Sep 21 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Frost Advisory tonight across interior eastern Upper, with
  patchy frost possible across interior northern Lower.

- Dry weather and seasonable temperatures continue, with a
  gradual slight warmup into the low 70s into the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 223 PM EDT Mon Sep 21 2026

Drier air will continue to filter into northern Michigan this
afternoon as Canadian high pressure builds into the Great Lakes.
Northeast winds will remain breezy at times as cooler air
settles south across the region, continuing high swim risks
across portions of the Lake Huron shoreline through Tuesday.
Tonight, clearing skies and lighter winds allow the colder
airmass to to drop temperatures into the 30s. As a result, frost
has the potential to develop across the typical colder interior
locations, with the greatest potential across eastern Upper
where lows fall into the low to mid 30s. A Frost Advisory has
been issued for eastern Upper for tonight into Tuesday morning,
while frost development across interior northern Lower has more
limiting factors for development due clouds and elevated winds
potentially lingering longer... However, if cloud cover and
winds decrease more than expected across northern Lower, then
some additional frost headlines would likely need to be added.

High pressure will then remain the dominant feature through
much of the week, resulting in a prolonged stretch of dry
weather across northern Michigan. Mostly sunny to partly cloudy
skies and seasonably cool temperatures are expected through
Thursday, with highs generally in the 60s. Temperatures will
gradually moderate slightly late week as surface high pressure
shifts east and weak return flow allows milder air back into the
region, with locations looking to reach the upper 60s to low
70s Friday into the weekend.

Rain chances remain minimal through the period, with the dry
airmass and persistent high pressure keeping better
precipitation chances west and south of the area. Some guidance
continues to suggest a weak shortwave may lift out of the
northern Plains late this weekend, potentially bringing a chance
for showers. However, confidence remains low given the limited
moisture available across the region and the potential of the
wave weakening. As such, thinking northern Michigan should
remain dry through the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 104 PM EDT Mon Sep 21 2026

VFR likely to prevail for most, but occasional MVFR/near-MVFR cigs
possible especially for APN and perhaps overnight at TVC/MBL. Winds
remain ENE 5-15kts gusting 15-20kts thru the rest of the afternoon
(CIU could turn more N/NE thru 0z) and should stay up around 5-10kts
overnight...but could be light/vrb at CIU overnight. Not impossible
PLN/TVC/MBL tries to turn more N/NNW this afternoon (lake breeze)
but not likely. Think there will be fewer clouds around Tuesday to
end taf period.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...Beach Hazards Statement through Tuesday evening for MIZ018-024-
     030-036-042.
     Frost Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 9 AM EDT Tuesday for
     MIZ086-087-095-096.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Tuesday for LHZ348-349.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...NSC
AVIATION...FEF