977
FXUS63 KAPX 191043
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
643 AM EDT Thu Sep 19 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm, near record temps today

- Slight chances for isolated to scattered storms Friday

- Cooler temperatures and more chances for rain early next week

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 327 AM EDT Thu Sep 19 2024

Pattern/synopsis: Guess what...high pressure continues to extend
into lower MI from the east. But, a cold front is making
eastward progress across the eastern Dakotas. This front will
push into western WI and eastern IA by daybreak Friday. So
actual changes are on the way...as soon as late tonight.

Forecast: Those changes aren`t on the way for today, though.
Pretty similar wx. Patchy fog/stratus is already evident on
satellite in parts of the eastern UP and ne lower MI. That will
expand for the next several hours, before mixing out after
sunrise. A mostly sunny day is still forecast after that,
allowing temps to warm to near-record levels. Highs will range
from the upper 70s on some beaches, to the mid 80s in parts of
northern lower MI.

Cloud cover will increase from the w tonight, as deep convection
develops and expands somewhat, ahead of the inbound surface cold
front. This is in a zone of increasing sw low-level flow. 1-km
sw winds increase to 25kt across WI, and eventually central/
northern Lake MI and western parts of this forecast area late
tonight. A plume of elevated instability will eventually push
into central WI and western upper MI. This will attempt to feed
any inbound convection/MCS from the rear. We are not unstable
here, and initially dry (though moistening late). Most of the
night is dry, with increasing clouds. After 4 am, a chance for
showers and just maybe a t-storm pushes into areas near and west
of a Trout Lk-TVC line. Lows tonight are quite mild, mid 50s to
lower 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 327 AM EDT Thu Sep 19 2024

Starting early Friday the upper level ridge will finally be exiting
to our east while an upper low over central Canada reaches down into
the northern plains. This will lead to a quick moving shortwave over
the northern Plains and Great Lakes area which works to flatten out
the flow behind it (a detail for later this weekend). Guidance shows
convection kicking off over MN/WI ahead of a more shallow surface
cold front Thursday afternoon. The convective remains (likely mid to
high level clouds and some lucky areas seeing light rain) will be
approaching the CWA Friday morning. Winds turn south to
southeasterly Friday morning with surface dew points rising into the
high 50s to low 60s as the warm sector also arrives. Latest CAM
runs are more optimistic about the warm nose aloft being overcome
by mixing, however this remains an area of uncertainty. The forecast
has decent cloud cover over the CWA most of Friday. As expected,
CAMs are also all over the place with CIN Friday afternoon. Besides
available instability, the shortwave will likely be moving overhead
Friday afternoon which will help provide some lift to a decent
amount of moisture (PWATS ~1.3"). This will likely lead to light
rain in some places, with embedded weak storms where some better
instability exists. Model soundings depict some pockets of drier air
aloft, which could lead to some gusty outflow winds from storms.
Otherwise, LCL heights will likely be >1.5 kft and FZL ~12 kft. This
means if storms do form, possible hazards will be gusty outflow
winds, lightning, and small hail. If we are able to get more
sunshine at the surface, storm coverage could become scattered and
not isolated.

The shallow (~2 - 2.5kft MSL) cold front will makes its way through
Friday evening/night and veer winds to the west to northwest.
Temperatures remain in the high 70s to low 80s Saturday as a deeper
closed low over Canada starts to approach Ontario CA. The zonal flow
talked about in the beginning will meet up with the bottoming trough
and create a ~130kt jet at 250mb. Another round of healthy moisture
advection  to MI is possible Sunday, leading to better chances for
rain (maybe even some storms) Sunday - Tuesday. Temperatures look to
finally cool down to fall like near the end of the forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 639 AM EDT Thu Sep 19 2024

Fog/stratus will potentially provide restrictions at all sites
but TVC as late as 14Z. Otherwise VFR today and tonight. Clouds
will be increasing tonight, but rain chances will mostly wait
until after the current TAF period. Light winds.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JZ
LONG TERM...ELD
AVIATION...JZ