123
FXUS63 KAPX 041756
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
156 PM EDT Fri Jul 4 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated showers/storms this afternoon into early evening

- Hot and muggy weather returns tonight into Saturday

- Showers and storms possible Saturday night into Sunday

- Periods of unsettled weather next week with more seasonable temps.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 339 AM EDT Fri Jul 4 2025

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST:

Northwesterly flow aloft with upper ridge axis to our west...and
upper low now well to our east over New England. Generalized
troughing across the western US...with northern stream energy over
B.C. and southern stream upper low heading toward Northern CA...with
a negatively tilted shortwave trough stretching from NV into the 4
Corners. Strengthening low-level southerly flow across the central
US into central Canada; 850mb temps across the northern Plains
rising above 20C, collocated with elevated mixed layers per 0z
soundings. Axis of moisture stretches along a lingering BCZ/warm
front from Manitoba down into central WI where convective activity
has been focused thus far. Better moisture resides over TX with
somewhat better return flow off the Gulf, though this is not
currently well-connected with northern stream energy. 1018mb surface
high over the EUP/eastern Ontario...leaving us high and dry, with
0z/04 pwat of 0.33in (on the low end of climo for us for early
July)...and keeping our air mass quite stable for now.

Looking ahead...expect warm front to slowly pivot across the Upper
Midwest through the day today; better return flow to our west should
keep the pivot point somewhere over SW MI for a while...but
eventually...better moisture looks to make inroads across northern
Lower/EUP going into the afternoon...bringing muggy back to our area
today for the summer lovers...and perhaps a chance for a pop-up
shower or storm. Ridge axis pivots overhead tonight as low pressure
tracks across northern Ontario. A shortwave trough rides into the
Northern Plains/Upper Midwest tonight as well...setting the stage
for an elongated SW-NE oriented surface trough across the Upper
Midwest going into Saturday morning.

Primary Forecast Concerns through Tonight:

Shower/storm potential today into tonight...not impossible some
elevated convection tries to crop up this morning...but think better
chance for precip/storms will be this afternoon with best chance for
diurnal heating (combined with slowly increasing mugginess) to
destabilize things to the point of popping this afternoon into early
evening till diurnal heating tapers off...with best chances for pop-
up activity across the interior, particularly if lake breezes are
able to develop at all. Do have to wonder if dry low-levels will
slow the ability for destabilization today...and perhaps limit pop-
up showers/storms. On the flipside, will have to see if any of the
upstream convective debris wanders in here today (could limit
diurnal heating)...though current trajectories indicate it should
largely remain to our southwest. Some concerns for an axis of
elevated instability to cross the area this evening into tonight,
though still some timing uncertainty in this. Not impossible some
activity develops upstream in the Green Bay/Western UP area if the
instability axis is slower, which could sneak into parts of NW Lower
and the EUP late this evening into tonight. (Best opportunity for
forcing should be across southern Ontario into the EUP tonight with
the disturbance passing by; LLJ looks to be strongest to our north
tonight as well, though it should veer with time tonight.)

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 339 AM EDT Fri Jul 4 2025

Days 2-3 (Saturday-Sunday)...Strong southwesterly flow through the
column Saturday ahead of aforementioned shortwave plowing its way
across the Upper Midwest will lead to a moderate swim risk for many
Lake MI beaches on a potentially hot and busy beach weekend (highs
likely in the 90s; heat indices approaching 100 in spots). Some
signals for pop-up showers/storms Saturday across NE Lower, though
think we should remain too warm/capped for much to develop. Think a
better shot at rain/storms should be along the approaching SW-NE
boundary moving through WI during the day; while forcing should be
fairly weak, in this environment, could be enough to help boost
storms, though flow aloft may be weak enough to preclude better
storm organization. Think upstream convection will be waning as it
approaches us Saturday night...with a concern for heavy rain as deep
moisture (pwats nearing or exceeding 2inches) pools along the
boundary...particularly if any kind of E-W boundary can set up and
focus moisture transport/convergence Saturday night when the LLJ
should be strongest. (Think the best chance for this will be to our
north, though...and starting to see some signals that the best
rainfall splits around us (again).) Storm concerns could hang on
into Sunday depending on how quickly the cold front sweeps through;
slower progression could leave NE Lower/Saginaw Bay in particular
open for destabilization and redevelopment.

Days 4-5 (Monday-Tuesday)...Looks as though we are on the route for
a parade of PV maxima crossing southern Canada early next
week...with a niblet Sunday night followed quickly by another PV
niblet for Monday night into Tuesday. Still a lot of questions as to
the timing and depth of these features...but certainly possible we
could be looking at somewhat more seasonable temps (upper 70s to
lower 80s) and continued periods of activity to start the work week.

Days 6-7 Outlook (Wednesday-Thursday)...Overall signals point toward
troughing trying to settle into eastern Canada/Upper Great Lakes for
mid to late week as ridging tries to build across the southwestern
and central US. This suggests potential for more seasonable temps
for the latter half of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 141 PM EDT Fri Jul 4 2025

VFR condtions expected through the entirety of the forecast
period. Winds calm tonight and turn southeast this evening with
high clouds over most locations. Winds then increase Saturday
morning, with gusts building into the low 20s by the early
afternoon hours. A few convective showers remain possible this
Saturday, but are expected to be very isolated and will stay
out of the forecast at this time.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FEF
LONG TERM...FEF
AVIATION...SJC