270
FXUS63 KAPX 181955
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
355 PM EDT Fri Apr 18 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and some thunderstorms possible this afternoon;
  minimal chance for severe weather for Saginaw Bay region

- Rainy and breezy conditions expected Sunday night into Monday
 night.

- Above normal temperatures likely later next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 354 PM EDT Fri Apr 18 2025

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST:

First round of convective activity now well stage-right. Some
clearing earlier this afternoon in its wake...but clouds now
spreading back in as moisture increases from the southwest ahead of
the positively tilted trough axis aloft...and subtle PV maxes
embedded in the main flow. Surface low over SW WI with an area of
convection developing over northern IL...and subtle/nebulous
boundary across southern WI into northern MI to a surface low well
north over Ontario. Winds generally NW behind this; generally some
kind of southerly component ahead of this. Expecting the overall
front/surface trough axis to slowly drop southeastward through the
night; troughing lingers in the region through Saturday afternoon,
with a much cooler but potentially breezy day...until high pressure
finally tries to build back into the area late in the day.

Primary Forecast Concerns:

Thunderstorm/severe(?) potential through tonight...at this
point...not sure how much in the way of actual severe weather will
end up developing. Do think we still have a shot at seeing some rain
and perhaps embedded thunder through this evening. A lot of gravity
waves showing up on satellite imagery with the mid/high moisture
moving in...and do wonder if this will be able to influence anything
that does try to crop up. Area of convection developing over S WI/N
IL...and initial thoughts are this will primarily track through SW
Lower MI again...where temps are warmer despite morning convection.
Across our area...think there is still enough instability aloft to
support somewhat deeper convection if we can get enough forcing
aloft to kick things off. Best chance for this would be generally
along and south of the M-72 corridor...with hail still the most
likely threat, followed by wind...though we may very well end up on
the stratiform rain side of things yet again.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 354 PM EDT Fri Apr 18 2025

Easter Sunday looks like it will be alright weather wise with
sunshine giving way to increasing cloudiness. Temperatures for most
will be near seasonable levels (low and mid 50s), except cooler near
the Lake Huron shorelines as easterly winds come off the cold lake.
More much needed rainfall is then expected Sunday night into Monday
as low pressure moves across the region. Winds will be gusty at
times as well. The remainder of the forecast looks mainly uneventful
with extended guidance varying on possible disturbances moving
through the flow. Seasonably warm Monday followed by cooler readings
on Tuesday. This is likely to be followed by a warming trend through
the remainder of the work week with highs in the 50s and even 60s
by the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 147 PM EDT Fri Apr 18 2025

Some clearing over most of northern Lower attm, but redevelopment of
MVFR cigs from TVC/MBL toward Y31 already ongoing as of 17z. Cigs
slowly improving for CIU this afternoon. Expecting some rain/TS to
develop across the area later this afternoon into this evening, esp
for APN to TVC...with cigs/visbys crashing to MVFR/IFR...and LIFR
largely after 0z for all sites. Window for TS should be 20z to 05z.
Wind shift from SW to NW expected starting first in the EUP and
tracking toward Saginaw Bay; variable winds elsewhere with some lake
breezes possible (already seeing this at TVC). Winds increase for
Sat AM with sustained 10-15kts gusting 25kts; MVFR cigs with some
daytime showers possible.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for
     LHZ346>349.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FEF
LONG TERM...AJS
AVIATION...FEF