395
FXUS63 KAPX 101716
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
116 PM EDT Fri Oct 10 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers/rain and breezy to windy conditions at times today and
  tonight.

- Warmer Sunday into early next week, followed by more
  seasonable temps.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 326 AM EDT Fri Oct 10 2025

Pattern Synopsis and Forecast:

Vertically stacked low pressure system will continue to move
southeast through the day today from Lake Superior to eastern upper,
and then across portions of Lake Ontario tonight. Frontal boundary
will move across the region during the afternoon and evening hours.
Thus, showers and rain is anticipated today along and ahead of
the frontal boundary/low pressure system with breezy conditions,
borderline windy perhaps briefly for some. Steadiest and more
robust precipitation begins to wane during the overnight hours,
although some showers will remain, along with a steady decrease
in winds most areas.

Primary Forecast Concerns:

Rain potential:

Precipitation chances will increase during the afternoon and
evening hours as warm advection, low level convergence
associated with the frontal boundary, and DPVA are maximized.
Thus, expect steadiest and highest rain totals generally the
farther north you go, in conjunction with the best large scale
lift (Tip of the Mitt northward, esp eastern upper). Area
average rain amounts generally between ~0.1" in spots to
around ~0.5". Locally enhanced rain amounts will be possible in
some areas, mainly closer to the upper low center which will
harbor the steepest lapse rates. Cannot rule out a rumble of
thunder or two with a few convective cells, but not a big
convective event given the meager instability, mainly lake
induced. There may be a non-zero waterspout risk on Lake Huron
as well, but the Great Lakes Waterspout Forecast suggests this
potential is quite low. Steadiest precipitation begins to wane
during the overnight hours, although some showers will remain.

Wind gusts:

Pressure gradient tightens out ahead of the low pressure system,
with low level winds increasing as well. Thus, breezy to windy
conditions are anticipated, with emphasis on this morning and
into portions of the afternoon hours. There will be a bit of a
concern on the degree of cloud cover and precipitation and thus
how efficient mixing can be. That being said, forecast soundings
from a couple pieces of guidance suggest 25 to 35 mph wind
gusts in spots, with locally higher values not out of the
question. Given the cloud cover and precipitation, there will
likely be breaks in the gustiness, and not everywhere will be
gusty at the same spatial time. Best potential for the highest
winds will be near the Lake Michigan shoreline and more
generally across northwest lower, in conjunction with some of
the higher boundary layer winds.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 326 AM EDT Fri Oct 10 2025

Day 2-3 (Saturday - Sunday):

A few light showers may linger during the day on Saturday as the
upper and sfc low drifts either in the vicinity of the thumb, or
just to the east and eventually southeast. Temperatures will be in
the 60s most areas, with no significant weather impacts.

Upper low lingers to our southeast during the day on Sunday, and
largely becomes a non factor. However, modest pressure gradient sets
up due to high pressure just northeast of Maine and deepening low
pressure system across the northern Plains. Thus, expect some
breezes, especially across northern portions of Lake Huron and
Michigan, and through the Straits. Otherwise, pleasant conditions
with temperatures in the 60s most locations and mostly dry
conditions.

Days 4-7 (Monday - Thursday):

Seasonably warm temperatures are expected to continue on Monday as
positive upper height anomalies remain overhead. Upper low and
subsequent sfc low pressure system move well to the north later
Monday and Monday night, with the potential for a few showers along
the sfc boundary extending southward. High pressure will build in
from the north during the middle portions of next week, returning
temperatures to more seasonable values for mid October.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 116 PM EDT Fri Oct 10 2025

-SHRA continue to cross northern Michigan this afternoon before
diminishing from west to east. CIGs primarily varying from low VFR
to MVFR, but brief dips to IFR not out of the question in steadier
showers. More solid/widespread MVFR CIGs expected tonight.
Occasionally gusty southwest winds early this afternoon veer more
westerly by early evening, and eventually out of the north tonight
while speeds/gusts diminish.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for
     LHZ345>349.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Saturday for LMZ323-342-
     344>346.
     Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Saturday for LMZ341.
     Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for LSZ321-
     322.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLD
LONG TERM...JLD
AVIATION...MJG