671
FXUS63 KAPX 041430
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1030 AM EDT Fri Apr 4 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warmer and sunny today, precip chances return tonight and
  Saturday.

- Unsettled pattern continues with snow chances and colder temps
  early next week.

- Warming trend starts mid week next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1030 AM EDT Fri Apr 4 2025

Current forecast remains on track with high pressure overhead
providing clear skies and light winds. Clouds will begin to
increase through the late afternoon/ evening ahead of our next
precipitation chances that move in tonight. Please see the short
and long term discussion below for more details.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 409 AM EDT Fri Apr 4 2025

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast Details:

Expansive ridging covering much of the eastern CONUS will amplify
through the period as longwave troughing digs across the southwest
U.S. and Mexico. Resultant height rises will overspread the Great
Lakes today, keeping surface high pressure in place before building
eastward into tonight. Plentiful sunshine is in store for northern
Michigan to start the day with temperatures climbing into the upper
40s to mid 50s. High clouds will spread in from southwest to
northeast through the afternoon as an elongated cyclone works closer
to the region into tonight. This system will bring the next round of
precip chances as it works across the Great Lakes on Saturday. Rain
chances will move in from the south later tonight, spreading across
much of the area by Saturday morning. Snow looks to mix in across
some areas during the morning, primarily the eastern U.P. and the
Tip of the Mitt. As precipitation associated with the system begins
to move out Saturday afternoon, northwest winds on the backside of
the cold front will usher in cooler temperatures and light lake
effect precip through Saturday evening.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 409 AM EDT Fri Apr 4 2025

A large and deep upper level low will be rotating over eastern CAN
Saturday night into Sunday, brining a trailing frontal boundary over
MI. This boundary will be weakening as it moves across the area, and
will be mostly dry. Mostly cloudy skies and cooler temperatures will
be seen Sunday, with breezy west winds in the afternoon hours. A
north push (frontal passage coming down from the north) will lead to
slight snow chances for eastern upper Sunday morning. While the
larger upper low spins over eastern CAN, a few shortwaves will
rotate through the flow and bring snow chances to most of northern
MI late Sunday night into Monday. The north push and an upper level
short wave are seen to become stacked in some guidance over northern
lower MI Monday morning, however there is still disagreement in
this. If these features can align, northern lower could see a few
inches of snow (3" to 5" is on the higher end of ensemble guidance).
Some lake effect/enhancement will likely be realized during this as
well for the typical snow belt locations. Temperatures become cold
Monday, with snow chances lingering into Tuesday.

Winds turn southerly Tuesday night into Wednesday and usher in rapid
warming, reaching high temperatures back into the 40s and 50s.
Widespread rain chances possible mid week with the warming
temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 621 AM EDT Fri Apr 4 2025

VFR conditions will persist across most of northern Michigan into
tonight. The exception will be across the eastern U.P. and far
northern lower with MVFR CIGs possible over the next few hours
before turning VFR. Mainly light east to southeast winds between 5-
10 mph will be in place today. Rain chances and associated lowered
CIGs will begin to work into the area from south to north late
tonight into Saturday morning.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...NSC
SHORT TERM...DJC
LONG TERM...ELD
AVIATION...DJC