313
FXUS63 KAPX 300722
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
322 AM EDT Mon Sep 30 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- One last summery day today

- Good chance for showers very late tonight into Tuesday

- Cooler for the rest of the week, though still near to
  somewhat above normal

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 323 AM EDT Mon Sep 30 2024

Pattern/synopsis: High pressure near James Bay is moving east.
Ridging extends into the northern lakes. Return flow is
strengthening over MN/western Ontario and points west, ahead of
a cold front pushing east toward Winnipeg.

Forecast: actual changes are on the way. The cold front will
race eastward, and push into eastern upper MI/nw lower MI just
as we get to sunrise Tuesday. September has been the 4th month
of summer, much more than the 1st month of autumn, but October
at least will finally look/feel more like fall.

But that`s tomorrow. Today`s yet another summery day, with a
decent chunk of the area getting deep into the 70s, perhaps
taking a run at 80f. (When`s the next time that will happen?)
We do have some shallow ground fog to contend with already, but
not as much as the last couple of mornings. It will burn off
quickly, with mainly sunny skies thru the day.

Tonight, clouds will increase, especially overnight, from the w
and s. 1km winds increase to 20-30kt overnight, but they become
pretty veered (wsw) as well. So not a ton of convergence/inflow
into the incoming cold front. MuCape values might reach 100j/kg
in a narrow band just ahead of the front. The best chance of
showers is likely immediately post-frontal, where forcing is
maxed. So by daybreak, we have a chance of showers in nw lower,
far n central lower, and especially eastern upper MI. Likely
pops in western Chippewa Co. QPF thru 12Z maxes out around
0.10". Lows near 50f to the mid 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 323 AM EDT Mon Sep 30 2024

Pattern Synopsis and Forecast:

Current midlevel ridging spanned across the central U.S will
continue this pattern of seasonable to mild weather into the
beginning of October. Upstream troughing currently over the
Pacific northwest will begin to deepen this week and span
across the majority of Canada and northern half of the U.S,
returning precip chances but more notable... returning cooler
temperatures through the remainder of the week. Additional
shortwaves will pivot along the U.S/Canadian boarder, thus
continuing chances of showers towards the end of the forecast
period.

Primary Forecast Concerns/Key Messages:

Showers and storms return this Tuesday: A surface cold front
associated with aformentioned troughing will be passing through
the CWA at the start of the forecast period, generating showers
and just maybe a t-storm. Instability is the primary obstacle to
seeing deep convection.

Cooler temperatures persist through the entirety of the long
term: Temperatures will finally see the return of cooler/more
seasonable temperatures post cold front. Some emphasis is
needed when advertising them as "cooler" when temperatures are
just returning to climatological average for the remainder of
the forecast period. Highs will remain in the 60s for the rest
of the week along with some pretty chilly nights, especially
overnight Tuesday and temperatures approach freezing in the
typically colder locations of the CWA.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1140 PM EDT Sun Sep 29 2024

Although the potential looks low, will need to continue to watch
for another round of early morning fog/mist, especially at
KCIU. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail under mostly clear
skies. Light winds with local lake breezes this afternoon.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JZ
LONG TERM...SJC
AVIATION...MSB