824
FXUS63 KAPX 101012
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
612 AM EDT Thu Oct 10 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Sun-filled skies to bring some rebound in temperatures today

- Warmer temperatures, parched fine fuels and gusty winds lead to
fire weather concerns Friday

- Brisk and chilly with decent rain chances for the second half
  of the weekend into early next week&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 225 AM EDT Thu Oct 10 2024

Pattern Synopsis/Pattern Forecast:

Sprawling area of high pressure centered north to south across the
heart of the area early this morning, bringing with it mostly clear
skies and light to calm winds. This has set the stage for a rather
significant downward temperature spiral, with widespread readings
well down into the 30s...and some of our typical ice box locations
dipping into the 20s.

High pressure will only slowly work its way east today and tonight
as a weak cold front works into the northwest Great Lakes by
sunrise Friday.

Primary Forecast Concerns:

Definitely no significant weather concerns, with the primary
focus on temperature trends both today and tonight.

Details:

Mostly sunny skies and the development of weak southwest return flow
on the backside of slowly departing surface high will help
temperatures rebound some today, with afternoon highs reaching the
upper 50s to middle 60s...readings that are actually a touch above
specific normal values for today`s date. Mostly clear skies this
evening does give way to some increasing high level clouds overnight
with approach of that weak upstream cold front. Increasing southwest
winds will prevent the downward temperature spiral observed the last
few nights, with low temperatures only ranging through the 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 225 AM EDT Thu Oct 10 2024

The long term forecast appears to be on track with changeable
conditions still expected over the next several days. Warm
temperatures Friday will give way to a noticeable chill Sunday on
into next week.

Gusty westerly winds, warm temperatures and parched fine fuels will
lead to fire weather concerns Friday. In addition, a weak and
moisture starved cold front moves through the region Friday
afternoon and evening. Although a few showers can`t be ruled out,
limited moisture should preclude most spots from seeing measurable
rainfall. A nearly zonal flow aloft overnight Friday into much of
Saturday will lead to seasonable temperatures and rain free
conditions but with increasing cloudiness during the day Saturday.
Upper level energy from the Pacific Northwest will then head
southeast toward the region and eventually carve out a decent trough
across the Great Lakes and Northeast. This will lead to increasing
but welcomed rain chances starting Saturday night on into early next
week. In addition, northerly winds will likely become rather gusty
and temperatures will turn chilly for a few days. Drier air/slowly
rising heights should return rain free and milder conditions by mid-
week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 610 AM EDT Thu Oct 10 2024

VFR conditions through this taf period under just a few passing
high clouds. Now significant wind concerns.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...AJS
AVIATION...MSB