833
FXUS63 KAPX 290558
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
158 AM EDT Tue Sep 29 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

-Late season warmth continues today with highs in the 70s.

-Rainfall moves across Northern Michigan this Wednesday and
Thursday.

-High pressure returns this weekend, supporting clear skies and
quiet weather through the remainder of the forecast period.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 157 AM EDT Tue Sep 29 2026

Pattern Synopsis: 500mb Cyclonic low pressure over the eastern
seaboard with subsequent shortwave ridging upstream over the Great
Lakes Region begins to break down today and progress eastward. At
the same time upstream troughing with attached surface low pressure
continues to develop in the central U.S and expand moisture through
the Midwest by early Wednesday morning. Light rainfall will persist
across the CWA this Wednesday and Thursday as a slow-moving frontal
boundary works across the region.

Cooler air will settle into the Northwoods this weekend as surface
high pressure builds across Northern Ontario and pushes cool, dry
northerly air into Northern Michigan. Temperatures are expected to
remain near climatological normal for early October with highs in
the 60s and overnight lows around 40. Quiet conditions are expected
to persist through the remainder of the forecast period as midlevel
zonal flow keeps any energy to our north.

Forecast Details:

Today and tonight: Subsidence aloft will continue dry and quiet
conditions today as summer-like temperatures build into the 70s
across the CWA. No active weather to report other than the morning
dense fog expected to quickly burn off/mix out as the surface
inversion breaks down. The majority of the day is expected to be
mostly sunny to partly cloudy with some low-level cumulus clouds
through midday before burning off and being replaced by mid/high-
level stratus this evening from the incoming frontal wave.

Wednesday and Thursday: Couple rounds of light precipitation are
expected to return after a prolonged dry spell to Northern Michigan.
Even with poor midlevel dynamics and a boundary dissipating with
time, southerly moisture advection will produce appreciable rainfall
amounts this Wednesday and Thursday. Highest amounts favor
southwestern parts of the CWA, with moderate chances of an inch or
more, but the majority of Northern Lower will likely observe around
a half inch of QPF over the course of 36-48 hours. Again, rainfall
intensity is expected to be low, but after a couple of weeks with no
observed precipitation, this rainfall will be beneficial for a dry
fall season.

Friday through Monday Outlook: Overall quiet and dry weather is
expected to persist through the remainder of the forecast period as
high pressure builds across Northwestern Ontario. Little to no
chances are expected this weekend into early next week as zonal
500mb flow punts any atmospheric disturbances north of the CWA. Low-
end PoPs will remain in the forecast for this Sunday as long-range
guidance depicts showers expanding south and clipping Eastern Upper
and the Tip of the Mitt, but confidence remains low regarding any
observable rainfall as mid and low levels appear very dry. Otherwise
temperatures cool slightly compared to today and return to
seasonable norms for October with highs in the 60s and overnight
lows around 40.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1104 PM EDT Mon Sep 28 2026

Fog has started to develop across portions of northern Michigan this
evening, and is expected to become more widespread as the night
progresses. Dense fog with VSBY drops to 1/4SM or less will be
possible, especially at CIU, PLN, and MBL. Lower confidence in
significant VSBY drops exists at TVC and APN. Otherwise, VFR
conditions are anticipated through the remainder of the period after
fog dissipates Tuesday morning.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...SJC
AVIATION...DJC