684
FXUS63 KAPX 222300
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
600 PM EST Wed Jan 22 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Accumulating snow continues into tonight, with lake effect
  continuing on Thursday.

- Moderating temperatures to more normal levels.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 327 PM EST Wed Jan 22 2025

Pattern Synopsis and Forecast:

First trough aloft swings through tonight, eventually shifting winds
to the west and northwest with secondary feature aloft for Thursday.
In the meantime, sfc low continues east southeastward with time.
Pressure gradient will relax overnight and into Thursday, meaning
less in the way for gusty winds and significant cold. Northwest flow
and additional trough will pave the way for some lake effect snow on
Thursday.

Primary Forecast Concerns:

Lake effect snow band shifts and pivots, in some fashion, across
northwest lower this evening. Elected to remain on the cautious side
based on the progged environment as this feature passes through and
a local EM report of 2-4 inches in 1.5 hrs within this band across
portions of Mackinac county. In addition, modest DGZ depth and
inversion heights should result in efficient snowfall accumulations,
so while this may be a quick hitting band of snow, thinking it could
pump out advisory level snows for portions of Emmet, Charlevoix, and
perhaps western Cheboygan counties. Went with the benefit of the
doubt, especially with how stationary this band has been at times
through the day. Generated/continued an advisory through 12Z Thurs
AM, which could be dumped early. Other areas will see continuing
snow showers with a couple of inches of snow, especially along the
Lake Michigan shoreline where it has been snowing much of the day
based on some of the webcams (although no clue on any amounts).

Transition to more northwest lake effect is expected into Thursday
ahead of a secondary piece of energy aloft. As of right now, have a
couple of inches expected for Kalkaska and vicinity. Not a ton of
snow, but worth a second look based on some progged soundings.

Winds diminish tonight, along with not as bitterly cold temperatures
into Thursday. Expect teens on Thursday for daytime highs.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 327 PM EST Wed Jan 22 2025

Pattern Synopsis/Pattern Forecast:

While overhead troughing will remain through much of the extended,
direct tap into Arctic source region will be lost...helping trend
temperatures to much more normal levels as we head through later
this week into the start of next week. Still looking a passing
embedded waves bringing periodic lake enhanced snow chances...but
definitely not seeing any evidence for significant storms.

Primary Forecast Concerns:

Temperature trends and addressing any snow chances.

Details:

Lingering light lake snows Thursday night transitions to dry
conditions Friday as high pressure traverses the area. Next fast
moving shortwave trough and attendant cold front set to cross the
area this weekend. Juxtaposition of deepest moisture and best
dynamics will be displaced to our north, supporting little in the
way of any widespread significant snows. However, thermal profiles
remain more than cold enough to entice a decent lake enhancement
response, so wouldn`t be terribly surprised to see at least some
impactful snows...especially in those favored southwest flow areas
before frontal passage. Timing subject to change of course, but
current trends support later Friday night/early Saturday for this
better enhancement to occur. Much like this current wave, post-
frontal environment does not look like a particularly moist
one...likely significantly throttling back on the lake response in
our typical northwest flow areas as we head through the remainder of
the weekend.

Perhaps some more additional fast moving and moisture starved waves
as we head into next work week. Again, may see some lake enhancement
with these waves, but definitely no sign of any widespread impactful
systems.

Perhaps bigger story is the return to more normal-like temperatures,
with highs mostly in the 20s and lows in the single digits and teens
(that`s above zero) through the period.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 600 PM EST Wed Jan 22 2025

Low pressure currently centered over Lake Superior will slowly
push thru SE Ontario tonight and into Quebec on Thursday.
Widespread light snow with embedded SW flow lake effect snow
showers will gradually transition back to NW flow lake effect
snow showers tonight as this system tracks north of Michigan
tonight and exits away from CWA on Thursday. Prevailing
conditions will remain MVFR/IFR for the next 24 hours. SW
surface winds at 10 to 20 kts will become W/NW at around 10 kts
later this evening...eventually becoming N/NW at 10 to 20 kts on
Thursday.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Thursday for MIZ016-017-
     099.
     Winter Storm Warning until 1 AM EST Thursday for MIZ020-025-
     031.
     Winter Storm Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for MIZ086-
     095-098.
     Winter Storm Warning until 10 PM EST this evening for MIZ096.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Thursday for LHZ345>349.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Thursday for LMZ323-341-
     342-344>346.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLD
LONG TERM...JLD
AVIATION...MLR