048
FXUS63 KAPX 121654 CCA
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1254 PM EDT Sun Oct 12 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warmer today and Monday, more seasonable rest of the week.

- Few light showers possible Monday.

- Unsettled ~late week/next weekend?

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 202 AM EDT Sun Oct 12 2025

Pattern Synopsis and Forecast:

Upper low lingers across NY/PA today, with no impact for us up here
in northern MI as conditions remain dry. Meanwhile, negatively
tilted short wave across the High Plains will deepen a sfc low
pressure system in Saskatchewan and Manitoba (for anyone who has
read my discussion the last few days, I mixed up Manitoba and
Saskatchewan, whoops). The pressure gradient between this feature
and a sfc high pressure off to the north/northeast of Maine will set
up a modest pressure gradient and easterly low level flow. Thus,
expect a few breezes, mainly across northern portions of Lake Huron
and Michigan and through the Straits (small craft advisories) during
the daytime/overnight hours. Otherwise, pleasant conditions with
temperatures in the 60s most locations.

Pressure gradient remains into the overnight as cold front
associated with the low pressure system moves eastward through the
night. Thus, some locations will likely keep a little air movement
into the overnight hours. Conceptually, best probability just along
and west of the higher terrain, meanwhile some locales will decouple
into the overnight and be a little cooler. Not a huge fog signal
tonight overall but worth a second look. Temps in the 50s close to
the coasts and where winds remain a little elevated, 40s most other
areas.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 202 AM EDT Sun Oct 12 2025

Day 2-3 (Monday - Tuesday):

Monday temperatures will warm a few degrees compared to Sunday as
winds shift more south to southwest. Thus, expect temperatures in
the 60s to low 70s most areas. However, a sfc cyclone wraps up
across Saskatchewan and Ontario during this time with a decaying sfc
boundary extending southward into the Upper Midwest. Thus, some
light precipitation will be possible during the afternoon and
overnight hours across northern MI, best potential being eastern
upper. Impacts should remain negligible with this activity.

High pressure builds in behind the aforementioned boundary on
Monday, with a cooler airmass filtering in. This airmass will be
more seasonable for most, with 50s to low 60s most areas. This will
remain as such through the end of the week. No big precipitation
threats on Tuesday.

Days 4-7 (Wednesday - Saturday):

High pressure will build in from the north/northwest during the
middle portions of next week, as the upper low that tracked across
Canada and Hudsons Bay drifts off to the east, or rather digs a
little southeast across Quebec and the northeast. Consequently,
temperatures will return to more seasonable values for mid October
during the mid to late week time frame. Looks like upper ridging
will try and keep the pattern tranquil for a period mid weekish.
Meanwhile, upper troughing digs into the Intermountain West and
Plains. Current guidance progs this feature and moisture eastward
later in the week and into next weekend. ENS follow suit, with minor
probabilities for modest precipitation during this time.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1246 PM EDT Sun Oct 12 2025

Improvement to VFR expected through the remainder of the daylight
hours with occasionally gusty southeast winds expected to
diminish tonight. Chances for fog/mist return tonight across parts
of the area, although lower confidence that what was experienced
last night given winds may not entirely decouple for entirety of
the night and gradually increasing high cloud in advance of the
next system set to bring at least low shower chances on Monday.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Monday for LHZ345>347.
     Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 8 AM EDT
     Monday for LMZ341.
     Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 5 AM EDT
     Monday for LSZ321-322.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLD
LONG TERM...JLD
AVIATION...MJG