534
FXUS63 KAPX 191038
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
638 AM EDT Sat Apr 19 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cool and mostly cloudy today

- Dry and seasonable on Easter Sunday.

- Rain chances return Sunday night into Monday.

- Cooler Tuesday before a warming trend commences the rest of
  the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 318 AM EDT Sat Apr 19 2025

Pattern/synopsis: Cold front is progressing thru ne lower MI
early this morning, and will exit to the se over the next few
hours. Low level moisture is extensive behind the front, with
stratus and areas of drizzle/very light rain.

Forecast: Moisture will shallow out today, but not as quickly as
earlier progged. Guidance if anything looks excessively
pessimistic in improving cloud cover today. Some drizzle could
linger past 8am, but overall coverage of light precip will
decrease in the pre-dawn and after-dawn hours. That gives way to
rising stratus deck, which should start to mix out as we move
thru the afternoon. Most emphatic clearing will wait until
evening, with mostly clear skies overnight. With mixing today
looking to be somewhat limited, and winds going light tonight,
patchy to areas of fog are expected overnight (especially in
eastern upper MI).

Max temps today in the 40s to mid 50s. Lows tonight in the 20s
to around 30f.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 318 AM EDT Sat Apr 19 2025

Pattern Synopsis / Forecast:

Next system will be developing in the Plains come Easter Sunday,
with lingering influence of surface high pressure continuing the
sunshine trend with highs well into the 50s. Clouds do increase in
the afternoon hours as the outer reaches of the system work closer,
but any precipitation chances will hold until later Sunday night as
rain showers spread from southwest to northeast. At this time,
elevated instability looks meager at best, so while a downpour or
two is possible later Sunday night, widespread thunder is not
anticipated at this juncture. Surface low pressure passes through
Wisconsin early Monday, which will keep the rain trend flowing until
the surface low departs to our north and west later in the day
into Monday night. Ordinarily, this would be a favorable severe
setup based off frontal position and surface low track, but
given the late night / early morning passage (limiting
instability), that threat is moot for the time being as highs
get stuck in the 50s and perhaps low 60s. Overall, best QPF will
remain west across the western and central Yoop into northern
Wisconsin... with decreasing rainfall as one heads east. Current
rainfall from this system ranges from 0.30- 0.50" west of US
131 (west of I-75 in the eastern Yoop) to 0.25" or less near
Lake Huron. Unimpactful overall, but helpful to keep pre-
greenup fire danger at bay (temporarily). Drier and cooler air
builds Tuesday... highs in the 40s and 50s.

Warming trend anticipated to close out the forecast period, with
occasional rain chances as some waves progress through the region.
In particular, a more pronounced wave may deliver a shot of warmth
on Thursday... well into the 60s and perhaps even mid 70s if we can
hold off on the cloud cover, but with uncertainty looming around
that forecast 5 days out, will keep temperatures more reserved into
the upper 50s to mid 60s to close out the period.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 637 AM EDT Sat Apr 19 2025

IFR to LIFR in stratus/fog/DZ to start the morning. Conditions
will gradually improve, with sites becoming MVFR by this
afternoon, and VFR with clearing skies by this evening. Some fog
may be possible again late tonight. Somewhat gusty nw winds
today, becoming light tonight.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for LHZ347-
     348.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JZ
LONG TERM...HAD
AVIATION...JZ