892
FXUS63 KAPX 120935
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
535 AM EDT Mon May 12 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm/dry today with elevated fire danger.

- Shower/storm chances return at times Tuesday into early next
  week; Watching the potential for strong to severe storms
  Thursday/Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 247 AM EDT Mon May 12 2025

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Mid-upper-level ridging exists atop the
Great Lakes region today through much of tonight. Closed upper level
low pressure and attendant surface reflection currently sit near
LA/MS, which is progged to make slow northeastward progress to the
TN Valley by late tonight. While the local airmass will remain very
dry through the day today, moisture return does begin to materialize
later tonight.

Forecast Details: Somewhat of a rinse and repeat of yesterday across
much of northern Michigan, albeit with warmer/summer-like
temperatures for many. Lots of sunshine with just some high clouds
arriving from south to north mid-afternoon onwards. High
temperatures today in the low-mid 80s away from the shorelines of
northern lower. Primarily 70s for the eastern U.P. and the beaches.
Minimum relative humidities expected to fall again back into the
teens for inland areas. South-southeast winds sustained near 10 mph
with occasional gusts to 20 mph will lead to another elevated fire
danger day.

Moisture does slowly increase this evening and overnight evidenced
by dew points climbing into the 40s and eventually the 50s by
sunrise Tuesday. PWs progged to climb to near 1.5" through this time
frame as well. Despite this increase in moisture, still plenty of
low-mid level dry air expected to be around to fight off the vast
majority of incoming shower chances after 06z in far southern
reaches of the forecast area. Did include some very low PoPs
near/south of M-55 for a rogue sprinkle or light shower. Tonight`s
lows in the 40s north and through the 50s for northern lower.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 247 AM EDT Mon May 12 2025

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast:

A cut off low pressure system to our south will track northward and
influence most of the weather through the period. Scattered to
isolated showers arrive Tuesday with isolated rain chances holding
on through the week... a significant shortwave trough tracking from
the west and into the Midwest for Thursday could bring strong to
severe storms to the area Thursday night into Friday. Guidance
continues to substantially increase dewpoints, supply modest
instability, and steepen lapse rates with this system leading to the
aformentioned potential strong storms. The same threats of mainly
damaging winds and possible large hail look to be the primary
hazards with any storms that could fire up in the advertised
environment. Definitely something to watch in the coming days.
Otherwise, a weak ridge builds overhead late in the weekend,
providing a brief break in showers Saturday night/ Sunday with
another low pressure system following a similar track to its
predecessor bringing shower chances early next week.

High temperatures Tuesday look reach the 70s with a warming trend
into the 80s by mid-week. Temperatures cool Friday heading into the
weekend as the aformentioned first low influences the region.
Overnight lows look to remain generally in the 50s/ 60s through mid-
week, then look to drop to the 30s/40s Friday night through the
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 535 AM EDT Mon May 12 2025

VFR through the TAF period with an increase in high clouds mid-late
afternoon onward, eventually trending lower toward mid-cloud
tonight. South-southeast winds AOB 10 kts with occasionally higher
gusts today with afternoon inland penetrating lake breezes.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MJG
LONG TERM...NSC
AVIATION...MJG