880
FXUS63 KAPX 261825
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
225 PM EDT Sat Apr 26 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Freezing overnight temperatures

- Dry conditions with light winds Sunday

- Strong to severe storms and heavy rain possible early next
  week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 214 PM EDT Sat Apr 26 2025

Forecast Synopsis:

Rain has moved out and skies will continue to clear this evening.
Gusty winds will become light after sunset. Dry conditions above and
light winds will allow temperatures to dip below freezing tonight
for almost all areas around northern MI. Coastal locations and
adjacent areas could remain in the low 30s, however interior
locations will dip to the high 20s. Widespread frost will be seen
for most of northern MI tonight. Surface high pressure will keep the
weather quiet Sunday. Skies will be sunny and winds light with a
lake breeze forming in the afternoon. Temperatures will be able
to warm around 10 to 15 degrees warmer than this afternoon.

Forecast Concerns:

Model soundings show very dry conditions through the column tonight.
This leads to high confidence temperature will be able to fall below
freezing. Lake sfc temps are in the high 30s, so a weak land breeze
could also form - which is why temperatures in the low 30s will
reach the coastal locations. High level clouds could move over the
upper penisula a little before sunrise, and allow for temperatures
to be a degree to two warmer than forecasted - however widespread
frost will still likely form over eastern upper and northern lower
tonight.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 214 PM EDT Sat Apr 26 2025

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast:

Surface high pressure across the region will promote clear skies and
warmer temperatures. Temperatures will continue to warm into
next week with forecasted highs into the upper 70s, to even
perhaps the low 80s for southern locations, depending on where
surface features set-up.

An upper-level low centered across southern California at the start
of the period, will progress northeast across the Midwest into the
Great Lakes as upstream troughing approaches the area Tuesday/
Tuesday night. Resultant surface low pressure looks to deepen and
track through Wisconsin and the western U.P., bringing shower and
thunder chances to the area Monday through Tuesday (mainly late
afternoon/evening Monday into Tuesday). A strong mid-level jet
streak will also move quickly northeastward from the southwest to
the upper Midwest Monday supporting the possibility of strong to
severe storms-- SPC continues to advertise areas west of I-75 in a
15% to 29% probability for severe weather. Strong southwesterly flow
will advect high theta-e values northward across the Midwest and
into parts of the upper Midwest. As a result, guidance is displaying
a good amount of moisture for the area with PWAT values of 1.10+". A
progressive pattern takes hold and should help to shunt moisture
more quickly eastward, potentially limiting the timeframe for
heavier rainfall across the Northwoods. For now, it looks like the
heavier precipitation focuses across the tip of the Mitt and the
eastern U.P. Monday night into Tuesday with strong to severe storms
possible as the attendant cold front to the aforementioned low
tracks through Monday night into Tuesday.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 153 PM EDT Sat Apr 26 2025

VFR conditions currently over northern MI terminals. Skies SCT-
BKN AOA 4kft with NWS winds of 10 to 15kts. Mostly terminals
are seeing G15 to 20kts. Winds will diminish to AOB 05kts and
VRB after 03Z tonight. Skies become SKC after 06Z for all
terminals. VFR conditions prevail through the period. Lake
breeze winds will be seen near coastal terminals after 18Z
Sunday.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for LHZ346-
     348-349.
     Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for LMZ345-
     346.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ELD
LONG TERM...NSC
AVIATION...ELD