824
FXUS63 KAPX 071110
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
610 AM EST Thu Nov 7 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Quiet weather today into the start of the weekend.

- Rain chances return to northern Michigan by Sunday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 346 AM EST Thu Nov 7 2024

Pattern Synopsis:

The junction of split mid/upper-level flow will continue to lie over
the Midwest/Great Lakes today into tonight. Northern stream
shortwave troughing looks to punch across the far northern Great
Lakes tonight as ridging begins to amplify across parts of the
Midwest/Mississippi Valley. Subsidence aloft will continue to build
surface high pressure centered over the Great Plains/Midwest that
will continue to nose into the region through the end of the period.

Forecast Details:

Quiet weather into Friday -- As aforementioned high pressure bleeds
into the region, quiet weather is expected across northern Michigan
through tonight. Partly to mostly sunny skies are in store for
northern lower this afternoon with more cloud cover anticipated
north of the bridge in closer proximity to better moisture. Highs in
the mid to upper 50s are expected for many areas this afternoon with
slightly cooler temps across the eastern U.P. West to west-southwest
winds will pick up this afternoon with gusts to 20-30 mph at times
later today and tonight. Despite mostly clear skies, these winds
will keep low-levels well mixed and prevent temperatures from
dropping too far tonight with lows staying in the mid/upper 30s for
most.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 346 AM EST Thu Nov 7 2024

Pattern Synopsis:

High pressure will build through the early weekend bringing mostly
clear skies and less active sensible weather. However, more active
weather looks to return late Saturday night into Sunday as a digging
trough and its associated low pressure system track across the Great
Lakes Region. Surface high pressure builds in quickly behind to
start off early next week.

Forecast Details:

Temperatures will be quite chilly Friday night as high pressure
settles overhead. Clear skies and light winds will promote
radiational cooling, which will drop Friday nights low temperatures
to the 20s across much of northern Michigan and low 30s near the
lake shorelines. Daytime high temperatures look to stay in the 50s
for the period with general overnight lows in the 30s/40s for the
rest of the period, with the exception of Friday night being cooler.
Attention then turns to Saturday night into Sunday as the
aformentioned system tracks into the region resulting in the next
chances for showers. General thinking continues to be that
accumulations with these showers would be relatively light with PWAT
values just barely reaching 1" with some guidance. Showers could
linger heading into Monday, but with high pressure building in
quickly behind the aforementioned system, dry weather looks to
return by Monday afternoon and continue through the beginning of
next week. A shortwave looks to drop from the north by mid-week,
bringing back more shower chances as we get further into next week--
stay tuned!

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 609 AM EST Thu Nov 7 2024

VFR conditions are primarily anticipated across northern Michigan
through the issuance period. Lingering MVFR CIGs at MBL overnight
are expected to scatter out over the next few hours. Additional
cloud cover looks to slide in across the eastern U.P. and far
northern lower, but CIGs are expected to stay above MVFR thresholds
at this time. Otherwise, west winds will continue to increase
through the morning into this afternoon with sustained wind speeds
around 10-15 kts with gusts to 20-30 kts at times this afternoon
into tonight.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 7 PM EST Friday for
     LHZ345>348.
     Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to noon EST Friday
     for LHZ349.
     Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 3 PM EST Friday for
     LMZ323-341-342-344.
     Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 3 PM EST
     Friday for LMZ345-346.
     Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 7 PM EST Friday for
     LSZ321.
     Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 3 PM EST Friday
     for LSZ322.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DJC
LONG TERM...NSC
AVIATION...DJC