248
FXUS63 KAPX 150811
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
311 AM EST Fri Nov 15 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Slight chances for showers to develop this morning along the
  Lake Michigan shoreline stretching from the Leelanau peninsula
  to the Manistee area.

- Rain showers and breezy winds on Sunday.

- Active weather next week...in some fashion.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 310 AM EST Fri Nov 15 2024

Pattern Synopsis and Forecast:

A ridge of high pressure builds in today as a departing low
pressure system tracks to the east-southeast. Light north winds
will gradually turn northwest and provide enough substance to
potentially create some lake induced showers along the Lake MI
coastline early this morning as deeper moisture hangs on,
especially near the Leelanau peninsula stretching to the
Manistee area. As high pressure starts to intrude on the area,
cloud cover will begin to decrease in coverage-- Perhaps some
peaks of sunshine will shine through today, but erring on the
more pessimistic side for when we will clear out due to the sun
angle, deep moisture present, and several guidance anticipating
at least a broken cloud deck today. Temperatures look to be in
the high 40s to low 50s with overnight lows expected in the 30s.
Winds will remain light and turn southwest through tonight with
fog development being another possibility for some Saturday
morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 310 AM EST Fri Nov 15 2024

Pattern Synopsis and Forecast:

High pressure remains in control into Saturday but begins to
slide east through the day consequent of a low pressure system
moving northeast into the N Plains. Thus, winds shift around to
the south/southeast on Saturday, of a non significant speed. Low
pressure system continues to move northeast into Sunday due to
the upper system`s eastward movement with sfc boundary moving
into N MI. Pressure gradient increases and so do the low level
wind fields. Consequently, expect breezy conditions on Sunday,
along with the chance for rain showers (perhaps as early as late
Sat night).

Next week remains tumultuous and active, at least to some
degree. First system early next week will lift out of the
southwest, move into the C Plains, and slowly weaken as it
progresses northeast into a brick wall of an upper level high
pressure developing south of Greenland. Thus, we remain in the
warmer side of this system seemingly at this time with scattered
showers possible (Tues-Wed- ish). Thereafter, more energy dives
down into the C-E portions of the country and deepens. Much of
the latest deterministic guidance (at least EC/CMC) shows an ill
connection to the/a source of cold air and thus a very marginal
environment for snow production, which would result in mainly
rain. Latest GFS, on the other hand, eventually drops in a
secondary piece of energy from the northwest in between the
developing ridge across the west coast and -NAO. This feature
phases with the aforementioned upper low resulting in some
decent cold air over the warm lakes and thus lake effect snows.
Most guidance not showing that connection at this point or
anymore, but even with the latest ECMWF, you can see the trend
in that general direction with an obvious piece of energy
dropping down from the northwest across portions of Canada and
subsequent ridging/troughing configurations much different from
the 12Z counterpart. All that to say, there`s a lot of moving
parts and details to be ironed out for this time period. ENS
guidance continues to show anything from very little in the way
of snow for GLR to some pretty good snows in the upper echelon
guidance. They say football is a game of inches, snow
forecasting is a game of miles.

Time will tell how this pattern ultimately impacts northern
Michigan, there will probably be a few surprises and
troughs/short waves that are not being readily resolved at this
time, especially within the ENS suite. Looking upstream and at
the NA/NH view shows a ton of factors that can and will impact
the downstream pattern, it is quite fascinating; this is really
a fun time of year to watch model runs come in and see the
differences. Best to monitor this volatile pattern going forward
and watch for the trends during the ~7 to 10 day time frame at
this point. Any conclusions at this time? Unsettled through much
of next week and at least somewhat cooler air. Snow chances
remain possible, but the degree of which will depend on how much
cold air can advect into the region.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1145 PM EST Thu Nov 14 2024

Weakening low pressure will continue to slowly push eastward out
of Southern Lower Michigan and into the Eastern Great Lakes
overnight into Friday. Residual light rain will gradually come
to an end overnight...but low clouds and areas of MVFR/IFR cigs
and fog will remain in its wake. Conditions will slowly return
to low VFR on Friday as high pressure slowly builds into the
region. Surface winds will be light/variable thru Friday night.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NSC
LONG TERM...JLD
AVIATION...MLR