636
FXUS63 KAPX 012341
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
741 PM EDT Tue Jul 1 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated showers/storms possible Wednesday afternoon and
  evening. Marginal Risk for an isolated severe storm.

- Turning warmer and more humid for the start of the 4th of July
  holiday weekend.

- Next appreciable rain and thunder chances return for the latter
  half of the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 201 PM EDT Tue Jul 1 2025

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Upper-level flow across the western Great
Lakes is in the process of becoming more zonal this afternoon as mid-
upper level trough axis that crossed last night continues to exit
stage right. At the surface, high pressure dominates through
tonight. Focus turns to Wednesday afternoon/night as incoming
shortwave troughing and attendant cold front tied to low pressure
near the Ontario/Quebec border are likely to provide the impetus for
isolated-scattered shower/storm activity across parts of the
forecast area. A return to dry weather is anticipated in its wake on
Thursday. By week`s end, ridging is expected to be building across
the nation`s midsection before sliding over the local area to start
the weekend. The second half of the weekend into early next week
look unsettled as additional waves are expected to traverse the
northern tier of the CONUS.

Forecast Details: Little in the way of sensible weather this
afternoon with just some shallow cu development away from the Lake
Michigan shadow over far northwest lower. While the mention of a
rogue shower will remain out of the forecast, there are sub-15%
probabilities of an isolated shower/storm along the Lake Huron lake
breeze this afternoon. Not anticipating this lake breeze to
penetrate inland all that far given 10-12 kts sustained northwest
winds, so these highly unlikely chances really limited to parts of
Presque Isle, Alpena, Alcona Iosco, and Arenac counties.

A quiet start to Wednesday expected area-wide after lows tonight
fall into the mid-50s (coolest spots) to mid-60s. Focus really
revolves around the Wednesday afternoon/evening time frame as a
quick-moving shortwave approaches the region from the west.
Attendant messy area of low pressure is expected to be centered near
the Quebec/Ontario border by Wednesday afternoon with a trailing cold
front stretched westward across Lake Superior into the upper MS
Valley. Increased moisture and ample heating in advance of this wave
will aid in producing a couple opportunities for isolated to
scattered showers/storms: initially Wednesday afternoon along any
lake breeze convergence axes and again late afternoon into the
evening associated with any upstream convection making a run toward
northern MI and gradually better forcing arriving from the
northwest. While none of this potential activity appears to be a
washout by any stretch, upwards of 750 J/kg MLCAPE and deep layer
bulk shear values around 30 kts may support an isolated strong to
severe storm. This highlighted in SPC`s Day 2 SWO with a Marginal
Risk for an instance or two of strong winds and large hail.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 201 PM EDT Tue Jul 1 2025

Day 2-3 (Wednesday night - July 4th): Wednesday`s cold front
continues to make slow southward progress over northern MI Wednesday
night before generally washing out overhead Thursday morning. Bubble
of high pressure drifts overhead Thursday with largely dry
conditions and seasonable temperatures expected. July 4th holiday
looks warm and increasingly muggy. NBM 50th percentile high temps
Friday range from the mid-80s to low 90s with 90th percentile probs
in the low-upper 90s. Some uncertainty exists with precip potential,
although latest trends support at least low PoPs for isentropically
driven shower/storms to impact festivities at some point during the
holiday. Low confidence in timing/placement of highest convective
chances at this point. Of course, timing of this could play into the
aforementioned heat, as well.

Day 4-5 (Saturday - Sunday): Another potentially very hot and humid
day on Saturday, albeit still convective dependent. Assuming limited
convective opportunity through the daytime hours, 50th % probs
feature highs in the low-upper 90s with 90th % a couple of ticks
hotter. Early look at high temp records this day have the current
forecast within a handful of degrees of record at a few of northern
MI`s climate sites (APN/PLN). Another wave set to approach from the
northwest for the latter half of the weekend is likely to bring more
unsettled weather. While there`s lots of uncertainty around timing
of best shower/storm chances, latest trends support Saturday night -
Sunday featuring the highest probabilities. Worth monitoring this
for potential impact to any holiday activities continuing into
Saturday evening.

Day 6-7 (Monday - Tuesday): Late weekend system and associated cold
front should provide some relief to the weekend heat. Seasonable
temperatures expected early next week with occasional shower/storm
chances not ruled out.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 741 PM EDT Tue Jul 1 2025

Mostly VFR, though localized fog possible overnight, mainly MBL.
Cu field will continue to diminish this evening. Some haze/smoke
well aloft. have a few hours of IFR vsbys in a TEMPO group for
MBL late tonight. Cu will return on Wednesday, an isolated
shower/storm possible in the afternoon.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MJG
LONG TERM...MJG
AVIATION...JZ