195
FXUS63 KAPX 281730
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1230 PM EST Fri Feb 28 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Periods of snow/mix today transitions to lake effect into this
  evening. Heaviest snow amounts across the E UP.

- Strong wind gusts expected, especially this evening near the Lake
  Michigan shorelines with values between 40 and 50 mph.

- Rapidly falling temperatures this evening will pose an isolated
  flash freeze risk.

- Cold Saturday with diminishing lake effect snow chances.

- Turning somewhat more mild next week with a return to more active
  weather.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 909 AM EST Fri Feb 28 2025

Overall running theme of the forecast remains the same.
Deepening northern stream shortwave currently plotted at 986mb
in the vicinity of International Falls, MN will continue its
trek eastward, casting a slew of impacts at northern Michigan
with its passage. A wing of snowfall continues its eastward
journey through the CWA, delineating the surface warm frontal
boundary. As such, temperatures are already beginning their
respective climbs west of I-75 in northern lower. This front
will clear much of the region, stalling out in the vicinity of
the Straits... leading to quite the thermal gradient across the
region. Highs in the 50s across the far south of the CWA, and
highs in the upper 20s in the Sault. Biggest change to the
forecast has been the expansion of the Wind Advisory across the
rest of northern lower Michigan, and moving the start time to
10am today. Most of the time, warm advection isn`t notorious for
its windiness normally because there is an inversion to shield
the racing flow above the deck to charge to the surface. In
today`s case, latest guidance has trended more aggressive toward dry
slotting yielding clearing skies. With surface temps warming
considerably, this will allow for a few gusts to approach or
even exceed 45mph this afternoon as the warm sector of the
system pivots over the region and convective mixing commences.
As the surface low itself moves overhead, there will be a
noticeable lull before the arctic cold front bulldozes its way
into the region, with strong cold air advection yielding
extremely efficient mixing. This will lead to a more pronounced
period of 45-50+ mph gusts this evening. Coupled with how cold
it will be this weekend, implications from power outages are
amplified. In addition, any snow that accompanies this wind will
sharply reduce visibility. Certainly looking like it could get
pretty dicey for the evening commute. Will be adjusting Winter
Weather headlines at the afternoon update.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 246 AM EST Fri Feb 28 2025

Pattern Synopsis and Forecast:

Upper low and attendant sfc low tracks across Lake Superior then
southeast across portions of northern Michigan through the day
today. Consequently, swath of warm advection snow will race across
the region during the morning. Subsequent lower to mid level lift
will produce continuous snows across the E UP. Low pressure system
ejects eastward this evening and into the overnight hours, with
another little burst of snow on the back edge of this feature and
sharply colder airmass as winds shift northwest.

Primary Forecast Concerns:

Main concern will be swath of moderate to heavy snow slicing across
Eastern Upper through the day today. Thump of WAA snow set to move
into the area this morning, relaxing during the day for northern
lower, then another brief thump across the Tip of the Mitt northward
in the evening. Eastern Upper will remain closer to the lift and
thus snows will fall much of the day leading to the heavier
accumulations. Guidance has trended northward for the most recent
00Z suite. Thus, there`s a bit of a question mark farther south
across northern portions of northern lower Michigan. There will
certainly be a gradient in snow somewhere in the vicinity of the
Straits. Nevertheless, heavy snowfall rates combined with gusty
winds will result in periods of very low visibility, whiteout at
times, and impactful weather conditions from the Straits northward.
Storm total snow will generally be 6 to 10 inches across much of
eastern upper (locally higher), perhaps more like 3-5" north of M-68
in northern lower (perhaps  most closer to the lower end based on
recent guidance). South of M-68 expecting just light accums, with
some rain/drizzle at times during the day, before a transition to
lake effect during the evening and overnight. Will keep headlines as
is (exception removing Beaver Island), warning level snows look
likely across a good chunk of the E UP with uncertainty towards the
Tip of the Mitt; this will be the area in northern lower that has
the highest likelihood of seeing accumulating snows though so will
leave advisories.

Snow continues into the overnight, focusing across snowbelts and
northern portions of northern lower. Looks to be light accumulations
with only minor impacts. Thus, no additional advisories will be
added. Snow intensity and coverage will diminish through the
nighttime hours.

Much colder airmass charges into the region this evening and into
the overnight hours behind this low pressure system and subsequent
robust cold frontal boundary. Temperatures will dropping
temperatures quickly well below freezing. Thus, any standing water
will freeze, making for areas of slick and slippery conditions. But
also, strong wind gusts are expected, with the best mixing and low
level jet axis ~from I-75 westward, and especially near the Lake
Michigan shoreline. Progged soundings suggest wind gusts 40 to 50
mph possible. Thus, will likely issue wind advisory for portions of
the area.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 246 AM EST Fri Feb 28 2025

Pattern Forecast: At the start of the forecast period Saturday
morning, upper level trough axis is expected to be situated just to
our east with associated surface low pressure well off to the east
across upstate NY/Northeast states. Attendant lagging low-level
thermal trough to cross northern MI during the day Saturday with
gradually rising heights and incoming surface high pressure expected
to wrap up the weekend. Heights continue to build into the start of
next week with increasing likelihood for an active weather pattern
to return. Potential early-mid next week for low pressure
development over the Plains to ride northeastward toward the Ohio
Valley/Great Lakes. Lots of uncertainty at this juncture with latest
trends supporting a somewhat cooler solution than has been featured
the last several days.

Forecast Details: Pretty cold temperatures expected Saturday with
highs generally in the teens to low 20s. Early day gustiness
supporting wind chills in the single digits to teens below zero,
especially through midday/early afternoon. Some lake effect snow
showers possible as well over the typical snow belts of northwest
lower and eastern upper, but not anticipating much in the way of
additional accumulation. High pressure slides overhead Saturday
night into Sunday with generally little in the way of sensible
weather anticipated. Highs climb back into the mid-20s to near 30
degrees for Sunday.

A return to more active weather as we head through next week -- with
the highest potential Tuesday onward as low pressure ramps up across
the nation`s midsection and treks northeastward towards the Ohio
Valley/Great Lakes. Still a pretty big spread in ensemble guidance
with respect to intensity and track of this system with the
potential for both rain, snow, and gusty winds all on the table at
this point. Somewhat noteworthy over the past 24-48 hours is a
southward shift in at least some guidance with respect to storm
placement -- certainly expect this to waffle around over the next
several days, but if that trends eventually holds true, a cooler and
potentially more snowy solution would be favored locally.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1230 PM EST Fri Feb 28 2025

CIU will see moderate to heavy snow at times into tonight. Other
sites will see a period of VFR conditions this afternoon. Then
they worsen to MVFR to perhaps IFR at this this evening as
colder air rushes back in and lake effect clouds/snow
redevelops.

Very gusty southerly winds today will become nw to n by this
evening.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...Winter Weather Advisory until 4 AM EST Saturday for MIZ016>018-
     097.
     Wind Advisory until 4 AM EST Saturday for MIZ020>036-041-042-
     098-099.
     Winter Storm Warning until 4 AM EST Saturday for MIZ086>088-
     096.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for
     MIZ095.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 4 AM EST Saturday for LHZ346-347.
     Gale Warning until 4 AM EST Saturday for LMZ323-344>346.
     Gale Warning until 4 AM EST Saturday for LSZ321-322.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HAD
SHORT TERM...JLD
LONG TERM...MJG
AVIATION...JZ