755
FXUS63 KAPX 102331
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
731 PM EDT Fri Oct 10 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Light rain and embedded showers will exit tonight as clouds hang
around

- Seasonal temperatures with mostly cloudy skies this weekend

- Next system will could move in early to mid week next week

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 216 PM EDT Fri Oct 10 2025

An upper low will be moving across northern MI towards PA/NY this
evening and tonight. Current satellite shows the upper circulation
on track with (and even slightly ahead of) 12Z guidance.
Scattered rain showers will continue to move across northern MI
this evening, but will likely diminish overnight tonight as
winds turn north. Mostly cloudy skies will hang around into
Saturday. Light rain and/or sprinkles will be possible over NW
lower and eastern upper early Saturday as minor lake instability
will keep the boundary layer somewhat saturated. These light
rain shower chances will shift to NE lower during the day
Saturday as winds shift to the NE/E, with chances lowering below
10%. Drier air will seep over NW lower and could allow for some
more sunshine later Saturday there.

Forecasted rain amounts for Friday thru Saturday are generally a
tenth of an inch up to a half of an inch. Areas forecasted to
receive the higher amounts (quarter of an inch or more) are
eastern upper and near the tip of the mitt, with the highest
amounts near the SOO.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 216 PM EDT Fri Oct 10 2025

The upper level low stalls over western PA/NY Sunday, curbing the
typical dry out northern MI can see with surface high pressure to
the east. Upper ridging builds in over northern MI, allowing
temperatures to warm 5 to 10 degrees for Sunday and Monday. The next
system approaches the state Monday, however most guidance is
indicating it will struggle to overcome the upper ridging and will
track to the NE into CAN. Ensembles and deterministic global
guidance are having a tough time resolving the interactions of the
approaching system from the west, the weakening upper ridge, and the
weak cut off low that stalled over western NY/PA. Most ensembles are
favoring the solution for the two weaker features (upper ridge and
stalled low) to weaken the impact of the approaching system
Monday and Tuesday over MI - with the upper lows reorganizing
and strengthening once they move east of the state. However,
many tools show a wide spread in the ensembles solutions for
Monday and Tuesday (the highest WPC cluster (cluster 1) is only
comprised of 26% of the total members).

In summary, the extended forecast has lower predictability for
northern MI due to our location with respect to these larger and
weaker upper level features. We can say, with some confidence,
that the availability of moisture for widespread beneficial
rains (0.5"+) will not be present - leading to the two possible
scenarios of either 1) generally clouds with little to no rain,
or 2) parts of the state receive periods of light to moderate
rain Monday into Tuesday.

Regardless of precipitation, temperatures will likely remain
seasonal through most of the work week as another system could
pass through for the late part of the week. Winds will be breezy
with gusts at times.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 730 PM EDT Fri Oct 10 2025

Dry slot to continue to move SE through this evening; another round
of -SHRA swivels back in as is apparent over CIU already...and think
this will mainly affect CIU, PLN, and APN through the
period...though not impossible a shower or two develops near
TVC/MBL. Behind the dry slot, cigs remain largely MVFR as additional
low clouds settle in, but could drop to IFR at times under the
showers; expect this idea to prevail through the period...with slow
improvements to VFR by Saturday afternoon. Some 25kt LLWS aloft
around 1kft again, but think it will periodically mix down and have
coded it thusly in TAFs, with no explicit WS group. Winds turn NNW
to N through 7-9z, becoming NE through 15z with gusts to 20kts, and
E after 18z, but should slowly diminish from 10-15kts tonight to 5-
10kts by afternoon.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for
     LHZ345>349.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Saturday for LMZ323-342-
     344>346.
     Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Saturday for LMZ341.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ELD
LONG TERM...ELD
AVIATION...FEF