314
FXUS63 KAPX 061430
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1030 AM EDT Sun Oct 6 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Very high fire danger near Saginaw Bay this afternoon.

- Gusty winds to usher in cooler weather to the Northwoods.

- Cooler with scattered lake effect rain showers at times Sunday
  through Tuesday before abnormal warmth returns late in the
  week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1030 AM EDT Sun Oct 6 2024

Cold front has departed across Lk Huron. A solid line of
convection developed along the front as it departed across the
lake, but alas northern lower MI had very little rain. (As
expected, eastern upper MI did better re: getting some
showers/storms last night).

Classic post-frontal fire wx concerns, with gusty downsloping
westerly winds into ne lower MI keeping temps warm, and RHs low,
longer than elsewhere. Per collab with GRR/DTX and USFS/DNR, red
flag warning has been issued for southeast areas thru late
afternoon. RHs will be marginal, but fuels are unusually
vulnerable given the warm/dry fall, and as mentioned there was
little rain last night. Temps will be falling by late afternoon,
even in the far se, and fire dangers will less by early evening
as RH levels increase.

Initial wraparound high-based stratocu is just starting to push
back into western Chip/Mack Cos. Cloud cover will increase,
especially in northwest/western sections, as cooler/more moist
air pushes in. Some small chance for lake effect showers to
eventually develop, with the earliest (and highest) pops in
Chippewa Co.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 318 AM EDT Sun Oct 6 2024

Pattern Synopsis/Pattern Forecast:

Sharp shortwave trough working steadily east across western Ontario
and the upper Mississippi Valley early this morning, with its
attendant rather robust cold front racing east just ahead of it into
the western Great Lakes. Narrow but focused axis of moisture running
along and just ahead of this front, and when coupled with some
enhanced mid level lapse rates and rather sharp forcing, is driving
an area of showers and thunderstorms into eastern upper Michigan and
parts of northern lower Michigan. Pre-frontal gusty south winds
keeping temperatures rather mild, with current readings in the upper
50s to middle 60s.

Cold front will continue to work east, crossing our area early this
morning. Shortwave troughing will follow, ushering in progressively
cooler air and kicking off some light lake effect rain showers in
the process.

Primary Forecast Concerns:

Temperature trends and addressing lake effect shower potential
through tonight.

Details:

Showers and embedded thunderstorms will continue to fire along and
just ahead of the front early this morning, with those showers
quickly exiting stage right toward sunrise. Sharp mid level dry slot
will follow, bringing increasing amounts of sunshine this morning.
Arrival of shortwave trough and attendant secondary surge of
synoptic moisture set to arrive from the northwest this afternoon
and evening. Rather aggressive cooling through the boundary layer
will help drive some lake enhanced rain showers, initially targeting
eastern upper Michigan later this morning/early this afternoon, with
the threat expanding south into northern lower Michigan later this
afternoon into this evening...with of course the greatest potential
in those traditional lake effect areas. Large scale moisture
contribution begins to decay later tonight, along with falling
convective cloud depths...helping throttle back a bit on the lake
processes as we head toward Monday morning. Likely to see a bit of
warming this morning with that increasing sun, with temperatures
falling through the afternoon under increasing clouds and arrival of
colder off the deck temperature profiles. Gusty west to northwest
winds will make it feel a bit colder yet. Maintenance of northwest
winds and passing clouds will prevent temperatures from falling too
aggressively tonight, but still looking at lows well down into the
40s by Monday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 318 AM EDT Sun Oct 6 2024

No big changes to the long term forecast with the region located on
the southern periphery of an upper trough through Tuesday evening.
Periodic short waves moving through the base of the trough are
expected to provide the lift to give a boost to ongoing marginal
over lake instability. This will be especially true during Monday
and Tuesday afternoons and evenings with scattered showers (mainly
confined to eastern upper and northwest lower). The pattern will
flip once again later in the week courtesy of a strong upper level
ridge that builds in from the west. This pattern will result in
progressively warmer air moving into the region, especially Thursday
through Saturday. Another cold front will likely approach the region
at some point next weekend but it`s way too early to put a time
table on this feature. So the first half of the week will be cooler
averaging near to slightly below normal with highs in the mid 50s to
low 60s. Abnormal warmth then builds back in for the remainder of
the long term forecast. Highs will moderate from the 60s Thursday to
well into the 70s for Friday and Saturday (a few spots could even
hit the 80 degree mark). Lows in the 30s to low 40s will moderate
into the 40s to low 50s by late in the week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 637 AM EDT Sun Oct 6 2024

Clear skies this morning will give way to MVFR to low end VFR
producing lake induced clouds this afternoon and tonight.
Current trends support the most persistent MVFR cigs focusing
across eastern upper Michigan. May see a few light showers as
well, again likely most persistent north of the big bridge.
West to northwest winds will be gusty both today and tonight.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...Red Flag Warning until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for MIZ030-035-
     036-041-042.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Monday for LHZ345-346.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Monday for LMZ323-341-342-
     344>346.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Monday for LSZ321-322.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JZ
SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...AJS
AVIATION...MSB