815
FXUS63 KAPX 041047
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
647 AM EDT Mon Aug 4 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

-Smoke continues to linger across Northern Michigan today.

-Most areas expected to remain mostly sunny and dry, but a few
afternoon pop up showers by bring isolated areas brief rainfall.

-Conditions slowly build to a more hot and humid air mass by the end
of the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 234 AM EDT Mon Aug 4 2025

Pattern Synopsis...Northern stream midlevel flow remains north of
the U.S/Canadian boarder with southern flow over the central CONUS.
Weak flow over the Great Lakes region will result in continued quiet
weather along with northwesterly flow into the CWA. As a result,
elevated wildfire smoke is expected to linger today and again likely
through Tuesday.

Forecast Details...

Surface high pressure will continue to remain across the northwoods
today. As expected, mostly sunny skies and high temperatures
climbing into the low 80s can be expected today. Biggest noticing
feature will be the continued wildfire smoke with hazy skies for
most locations. If smoke coverage is on the stronger side, this may
hinder high temperatures as diurnal heating processes may be
blocked. Otherwise most areas can be expected to remain mostly
sunny. High rez guidance depicts some instability building in the
afternoon, which could result in a few localized pop-up showers.
These showers are likely to lead to quick lived showers for one or
two locations, especially for areas south of M-32 followed by
a return right back to mostly sunny skies.

Tonight... Northern lower is expected to remain mostly clear
tonight, but cloud cover will to move in across eastern upper.
Overnight lows are expected to drop into the upper 50s to low 60s
for the CWA. &&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 234 AM EDT Mon Aug 4 2025

Tuesday and Wednesday... Short wave midlevel ridging pattern tracks
across the Great Lakes region. Surface high pressure is set to
continue this Tuesday and Wednesday. Conditions will look very
similar with wildfire smoke likely continuing to linger with daytime
highs climbing into the low/mid 80s. Precipitation chances once
again remain low, but low probabilities of pop-up showers continue
this Tuesday as afternoon instability builds.

Thursday and Friday... Probabilities of precipitation slightly
increase as we head closer to the end of the work week. Shortwave
troughing tracks north of Superior returning some chances of
precipitation to the CWA. Areas along eastern upper remain more
favorable as height falls remain much closer to them, but isolated
showers remain possible at this time for northern lower.
Temperatures are expected to slowly climb by the end of the week
with highs likely in the upper 80s for most locations.

Saturday and Sunday... Southern stream flow begin to break down this
weekend, resulting another heat dome building across the region.
This pattern support hot and humid weather to return as high
probabilities for tempers in the 80s along with low to medium probs
for the typically warmer locations hitting 90 with dew points in
the upper 60s. Long range ensembles hint at better precipitation
chances as upstream troughing makes its way to the Great Lakes
region around the late Sunday/Monday timeframe.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 645 AM EDT Mon Aug 4 2025

Any lingering fog/mist will again burn off quickly early this
morning, leaving behind hazy skies with lingering smoke today.
Expect VFR to high end MVFR conditions to persist into tonight,
with again perhaps some lower visibilities developing at KMBL
late. Light winds with local afternoon lake breezes expected.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SJC
LONG TERM...SJC
AVIATION...MSB