779
FXUS63 KAPX 080143
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
843 PM EST Fri Feb 7 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Accumulating widespread snow Saturday into early Saturday
  night.

- Occasional light lake effect snow showers Sunday into next
  week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 836 PM EST Fri Feb 7 2025

No change of any consequence to that which was inherited.
Lingering light lake snows continue to end as winds diminish.
Clouds tied to approaching wave already spreading into the
region, and expect mostly cloudy skies by morning for most of
the area. May see some light snow develop toward morning for
areas southwest of Grand Traverse Bay. Latest guidance and
simple observational trends still support more widespread snows
spreading west to east across the area on Saturday.
Extrapolation of best juxtaposition of deepest moisture and
forcing supports best snows Saturday aligning with current
advisory areas. No need to adjust those as of now.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 232 PM EST Fri Feb 7 2025

Pattern Synopsis:

Longwave troughing will continue to slide over New England and the
Atlantic Ocean into tonight as the associated surface cyclone tracks
northeast over the Labrador Sea on Saturday. Meanwhile, surface high
pressure will keep spreading from the southern Great Lakes/Ohio
Valley into the northeast CONUS through the period. Two subtle
shortwaves/jet maxes embedded within mid/upper-level westerlies will
punch across the Great Plains Saturday, providing forcing aloft to
support a second, relatively weak cyclone that looks to trek across
the mid-Mississippi Valley and Ohio Valley into Saturday evening.

Forecast Details:

Accumulating snow returns -- Light lake effect snow will continue
across parts of northern lower and eastern upper Michigan into this
evening and tonight. Activity looks to wind down south of the bridge
first before tapering off near Whitefish Bay later tonight. The
primary focus will be the return of accumulating snow Saturday,
mainly for south of the bridge. Snow begins to move in from west to
east Saturday morning, getting to areas around I-75 and east during
the afternoon. Warm advection/frontogenetic forcing across mid-
Michigan will support this band as it slides across the state.
Forecast soundings display a few thousand feet of saturated profile
collocated with the DGZ, but best forcing may lie above this layer.
Despite this, still believe that snowfall will be efficient by
system standards with SLRs near 17:1. Current confidence strays some
from recent model runs with forecast snowfall on lower end of
amounts and amongst guidance that is the furthest south. With
relatively weak/subtle forcing, belief is that most model solutions
-- including latest CAMs -- have incorrectly to strong/too far north
solutions, and have nudged the forecast the other way accordingly.
Winter Weather Advisory matches by including our southern two rows
of counties for now. Future guidance cycles will be closely
monitored, and adjustments upward/further north with highest amounts
may be needed.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 232 PM EST Fri Feb 7 2025

Snow is expected to continue into early Saturday night before
diminishing overnight. Additional snow amounts ranging from around
an inch north to perhaps two or three more inches south.
Scattered light northwest flow lake effect snow showers Sunday.
These snow showers may linger into early next week, especially
across eastern upper. There could be a band of snow along an
arctic cold front dropping south later Monday night into
Tuesday morning. Extended guidance then has an area of low
pressure moving by to our south Wednesday into Thursday. At this
point, it looks like impacts will remain off to our south but
we`ll have to keep an eye on the track of that system over the
next few days. Cold air sticks around next week so we could see
some lake effect snow showers pretty much at any point but no
big events are foreseen at this time due to shifting winds and
the lack of deep moisture.

Temperatures are expected to be near seasonal averages through
Monday followed by below normal readings for the second half of next
week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 623 PM EST Fri Feb 7 2025

Improving conditions to VFR at all locations expected this
evening. Accumulating snow returns to northern Michigan from
west to east Saturday morning and afternoon. MVFR/IFR CIGs and
VSBYs look to overspread the area during this time as well.
Winds will remain light through the period.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...Winter Weather Advisory from 7 AM Saturday to 7 AM EST Sunday
     for MIZ020-025>027-031>033.
     Winter Weather Advisory from noon Saturday to 7 AM EST Sunday
     for MIZ028-034>036-041-042.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MSB
SHORT TERM...DJC
LONG TERM...AJS
AVIATION...MSB