723
FXUS63 KAPX 050252
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
952 PM EST Wed Dec 4 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Clipper system will continue to bring wintry precipitation to
northern MI today through Thursday

- Stronger frontal passages will lead to gusty winds tonight through
Thursday for most locations

- Periods of lake effect snow will continue into Saturday.

- Milder temperatures arrive Sunday and continue into Monday. Mixed
precipitation or rain is possible Sunday night into early next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 952 PM EST Wed Dec 4 2024

992mb surface low is north of Georgian Bay. A closed 500mb low
is almost overhead. Lead cold front is exiting to the se, with
nw/nnw winds becoming established behind the front. Colder air
making some inroads, with all areas in the 20s.

As the upper low heads downstream, synoptic support for snow
will move east from central lower MI. Deeper moisture/forcing
will depart toward the Thumb and southern Lk Huron. There is a
trailing area of enhanced moisture, associated with a shortwave,
that will drop se-ward from northern Superior. This will drop in
late tonight.

Nw/nnw flow lake effect is developing the wake of more
widespread activity. A potent dominant band in nw lower MI
extends from Elk Rapids to east of Lake City. Expect northern
lower MI bands to eventually get displaced eastward a bit, as
winds are progged to temporarily back. More abrupt veering
takes place very late tonight as a secondary cold front goes
thru. Will be bumping up snow amounts east of TVC-CAD, and west
of I-75. In eastern upper MI, that more abrupt veering arrives
sooner (though still after midnight), leaving a northerly fetch
that is unfavorable for lake effect except for far western
Chip/Mack Cos.

Winds will remain quite blustery, adding to the unpleasant
travel conditions tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 347 PM EST Wed Dec 4 2024

Forecast Pattern:

Radar depicts light snow and mixed precip currently over the
area. Light freezing drizzle has been seen over northern lower
and is leading to light ice accumulations (>0.02"). A stronger
clipper system is currently dipping down over northern MI/WI
with a few surface features residing under and/or just downwind
of the larger scale feature. Surface winds over northern MI are
continuing to shift westerly this afternoon as the first of two
cold fronts approaches from the west. Surface observations place
this boundary over northern WI and the western U.P this
afternoon. As these features continue eastward they will become
stacked as it reaches the eastern shores of Lk MI this evening,
which will lead to strengthening of the cold front as it
approaches. Banding of heavy snow will be likely along the
boundary as it passes through the evening hours from west to
east. Stronger northwest wind gusts of 30 to 35 mph will likely
be more widespread around northern lower, and will blow snow
around (even existing snow). Lake effect snow will still be seen
after the first cold front passage and should linger through
midnight and into early Thursday morning. Thursday morning
around sunrise winds will shift to the north as a second cold
front moves through. Winds will shift north and move the focus
of lake effect snow from the typical snow belt locations to
Grand Traverse, Benzie, Wexford, Leelanau, Kalkaska, Manistee,
and Missaukee Counties for Thursday. North winds continue to be
gusty, and will very gradually start to diminish near the end of
the period.

Forecast Concerns:

The forcing with this system will be stronger over northern lower vs
eastern upper, which results in stronger winds and heavier snow
showers with the passage of the first cold front. It has the
potential to even be more organized over southwest/central MI,
leading to hazardous travel on HWY 131 even south of Cadillac this
evening. Over northern lower, this feature will likely be a little
more scattered in nature when compared to the segment over southwest
MI, however those more scattered areas will still see heavy snow
showers from this. Stronger winds will be more widespread, and lead
to hazardous travel for most places as the boundary crosses -
independent of the presence of heavy snow. The one exception to this
is where some areas had light (> 0.02") accumulations of freezing
drizzle this afternoon, which could initially impede the chances for
existing snowpack to blow around with this intial frontal passage.

Snow total thoughts: Typical snow belts will likely see 7 to 12
inches tonight through 7 PM Thursday morning, with surrounding areas
of northwest lower 5 to 8 inches. Easter upper, for the same time
frame, up to 6 inches with coastal areas seeing a few tenths up
to 2 inches. Please see our DSS and other products for more
details on amounts.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 347 PM EST Wed Dec 4 2024

The latest extended guidance has come into good agreement that the
recent cold pattern will give way to periodic warmer periods over
the next 7 to 10 days or more. Unfortunately, this will eventually
open up the possibility of mixed precipitation or even rain events
from time to time. In the meantime, colder air and some additional
lake effect snow is expected Thursday night through Saturday
morning. An Alberta Clipper may enhance snow shower activity Friday
afternoon. Could see between a couple and a few inches of
accumulation, mainly in the northwest flow favored snow belts.
Milder air likely puts an end to any lingering lake induced activity
late Saturday on through Sunday. There is then uncertainty over the
details of the possible formation and track of surface low pressure
Sunday into early next week. Initially some rain is possible Sunday
night into Monday. Beyond that, depending upon the track of the
possible low, there could be anything from more rain, mixed
precipitation or even heavy snow. Hopefully we can get a better
handle on this potential system over the coming days. Temperatures
are expected to be a few degrees below normal Friday, near normal
Saturday then likely a few degrees above normal Sunday and Monday.
20s to low 30s for highs Friday are expected to moderate into the
40s across parts of the area Sunday into Monday. Apologies go out to
all the winter enthusiasts for the bad news.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 640 PM EST Wed Dec 4 2024

Snow showers increase this evening in nw lower MI. IFR at
MBL/TVC, with LIFR possible at least briefly. These will be
mainly IFR into Thursday. APN will be at times this evening,
improving to MVFR. Mostly MVFR PLN/CIU, though PLN could go IFR
at times late tonight.

Winds veer nw and become gusty this evening into Thursday.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Thursday for MIZ018-023-
     024-029-030-035-041.
     Winter Storm Warning until 7 PM EST Thursday for MIZ020>022-
     025>028-031>034-086-095-098-099.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 7 PM EST Thursday for LHZ345.
     Gale Warning until 7 PM EST Thursday for LHZ346>349.
     Gale Warning until 7 PM EST Thursday for LMZ323-341-342-
     344>346.
     Gale Warning until 7 PM EST Thursday for LSZ321-322.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JZ
SHORT TERM...ELD
LONG TERM...AJS
AVIATION...JZ