715
FXUS63 KAPX 010345
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1145 PM EDT Sun Jun 30 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers possible, especially NW lower and eastern upper
 Tuesday.

- Potential for more widespread showers and thunder (including
 heavy rainfall) Tuesday night into Wednesday.

- Trending dry for the Independence Day holiday (Thursday).

- Additional unsettled weather looks possible heading into next
  weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 953 PM EDT Sun Jun 30 2024

Quiet and unseasonably cool wx will continue thru the overnight
hours as a large area of high pressure becomes centered over
Michigan. Overnight lows will drop into the 40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 226 PM EDT Sun Jun 30 2024

Pattern Synopsis / Forecast:

Current satellite and webcams show low clouds thinning out over
northern lower. Mostly clear skies over eastern upper this
afternoon. Current surface temperatures are cooler today, in the
50s and 60s for most of northern MI as higher pressure settles
in. There is still time for temperatures to creep up this
afternoon as the sun peaks out more. Tonight, drier air and
calm winds will allow temperatuers to drop into the high 30s and
low 40s. RH values will be very high tonight, however the
moisture will be very shallow. Patchy fog will be likely in low
spots with dense vegetation and/or lakes and rivers. Upper
level ridging moves overhead Monday. Mostly clear skies and
drier air will allow temperatures to warm Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 226 PM EDT Sun Jun 30 2024

Pattern Synopsis / Forecast:

500mb ridge axis will be moving just to the east of the area by the
time we get to Tuesday, with troughing digging into the northern
Plains and southern Canadian prairies. Result will be a corridor of
enhanced 500mb flow directed from the central and southern Plains
into the upper Great Lakes for Tuesday and Wednesday. This should
lead to a period of showers and thunder... first more scattered /
light Tuesday, potentially turning more widespread / heavier Tuesday
night into Wednesday as a corridor of low level jet driven moisture
pivots overhead of the region as a cold front forces its way into
the Great Lakes region. This front will clear northern Michigan by
Thursday, bringing a brief return of drier air before another trough
digs into the region for the end of the week... thus returning more
unsettled weather to close out the week.

Primary Forecast Concerns:

Tuesday / Wednesday: Signals are beginning to point to the potential
for a dry start to the day Tuesday across much of the region. Core
of the 850mb flow (moisture transport) will be displaced to the
west, resulting in any shower / storm complexes that move toward
northern MI struggling mightily owing to the lingering influences of
the departing surface high pressure. Given the "top-down saturation"
that will have to happen, expecting most shower activity to favor
west of a Houghton Lake to Rogers City line owing to better moisture
proximity. Any rain that falls Tuesday during the day will probably
be on the lighter side as well.

The narrative changes slightly on Tuesday night as the deeper
moisture plume pivots overhead. Showers and storms are set to
initiate over the Corn Belt, growing upscale as they move through
the mean SW flow into Wisconsin and across Lake Michigan. There will
be two distinct areas to watch with this complex of storms as it
moves toward Michigan: where the core of the deeper / more
persistent convection goes (thus, the more efficient rainfall rates)
and how the resulting stratiform (non-storm) rain field evolves.
While we will be in the deeper moisture, there is some things that
may work against this... the better forcing (as of now) appears to
favor just to the south, thus suppressing the more persistent storms
just to our south and west (this is supported by the latest WPC Day
3 Excessive Rainfall outlook, focused more on Wisconsin, with just a
Marginal Risk leaking into NW lower Michigan). That being said, with
this setup, a least a period of stratiform rain seems like a solid
bet Tuesday night into Wednesday morning as the front passes through
the region. While this stratiform rain probably won`t be torrential
like the convective rain will, the moisture rich atmosphere will
likely be able to still produce a persistent shield of steadier and
efficient rain. Where exactly the potential convective max occurs
will have to be sorted out in the coming forecast cycles.

Independence Day: Post-frontal airmass should result in a bit of a
drier day Thursday as a thin area of high pressure glances by the
region. Holiday itself looks to see a mix of sun and clouds (perhaps
even becoming mostly cloudy south and west) with seasonable highs in
the upper 70s to mid 80s.

Next weekend: Another digging trough into the northern Plains will
try to elicit a moisture return response into the Great Lakes region
by Friday (hence cloudier skies south on Thursday). Better forcing
moves in as low pressure treks east into Wisconsin, which should (in
theory) increase showers chances Friday night and leaking into the
first half of the weekend... continuing a theme of unsettled weather
intruding on weekends this summer across northern Michigan.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1145 PM EDT Sun Jun 30 2024

Large area of strong high pressure will becoming centered over
Michigan tonight and will hold over our area thru Monday. Clear
skies and solid VFR conditions are expected...although some
patchy fog may develop late tonight...especially around the
MBL/TVC/PLN areas. NW winds of below 10 kts will allow for lake
breeze development by around midday Monday.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MLR
SHORT TERM...ELD
LONG TERM...HAD
AVIATION...MLR