232
FXUS63 KAPX 020912
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
512 AM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Decreased confidence in icing today. Possible light glaze for a
  brief time before transition to all rain.

- Strong wind gusts of 25-40+ mph expected today.

- Accumulating snow expected this morning into early afternoon, with
  amounts around 1" currently anticipated for most areas.

- Isolated thunderstorms this afternoon, with the potential for
  a strong storm or too.

- A break from activity Thursday and Friday as temperatures
  remain near normal. Chances for rain and snow Saturday, with
  snow chances lingering through early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 508 AM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025

Pattern Synopsis:

Ridging over the Great Lakes will push eastward today as associated
high pressure builds across Quebec and the far northeast CONUS.
Meanwhile, the primary focus will lie on the deepening cyclone over
the Great Plains set to trek across the Upper Midwest into tonight,
supported by an impressive shortwave trough that will lift across
the region.

Forecast Details:

Given the recent historic ice storm and continued recovery efforts
for the foreseeable future, this system has garnered quite a bit of
attention the past few days as it brings the potential for a handful
of winter weather hazards. Thus, will break down each potential
hazard more in depth below:

Freezing rain/icing -- Confidence has decreased in icing potential
this morning into this evening across the area, which would be a
relief to many across northern Michigan should this evolve as
expected. Surface temperatures are expected to warm above freezing
relatively quickly this morning, aligning favorably with vertical
profiles also warming aloft -- working to limit the window of
freezing rain potential across the area. Current expectation is little
to no icing for most areas, and any icing largely limited to a light
glaze for a short period of time. Best timing is between 8am-Noon
for northern lower, and 3pm-8pm across the eastern U.P.

Winds -- The greatest concern for impacts across the area today may
be winds, simply given the fact that a large amount of icing still
remains on trees from the recent storm. Southeast winds will
continue to increase today, gusting to 25-40+ mph at times through
the afternoon. These gusts may lead to additional downed trees and
limbs, exacerbating impacts across the area and potentially delaying
recovery efforts.

Snow -- A rather complex forecast is ahead this morning in regards
to snowfall amounts across the area with relatively high
uncertainty. Current confidence is in lower snow amounts than the
rather impressive amounts displayed in some recent high-res
guidance. A large player in this is convective evolution to our
southeast this morning. Belief is that recently initiated storms
across central Illinois will work to block moist advection
northward, acting as a stick in the stream of low-level flow in a
way, and work southeast of the CWA over the next several hours. High-
res guidance struggles to resolve this, and a solution closer to the
RDPS/CMCreg and HRDPS appears more likely at the time -- less QPF
across southeast portions of the CWA later this morning, leading to
lesser snowfall amounts as higher QPF arrives after surface
temperatures warm. Forecast amounts are mainly around 1" before the
transition to rain, but other high-res guidance mentioned previously
displays higher-end amounts of several inches of wet snow, which
would certainly be impactful -- and messaging would likely have to
ramp up considerably in the short term to appropriately message
these impacts.

Thunderstorms -- Lastly, isolated storms will be possible across
northern Michigan this afternoon and evening. While a strong storm
or two cannot be ruled out, convective mode evolution will largely
be unfavorable for widespread severe storms across northern
Michigan. The primary hazard with any storms will be strong winds,
small hail, and lightning -- which will pose a threat to those
working outside.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 159 AM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025

Mostly dry conditions for Thursday and Friday over northern
lower (with precipitation exiting eastern upper Thursday
morning). Gusty west to northwest winds will be seen most of
Thursday as cooler air settles in. Winds become light Friday,
and temperatures will warm as skies remain mostly sunny in the
morning and mid afternoon hours.

The next system will be approaching MI from the south late Friday,
brining snow and rain chances to northern MI for most of Saturday.
Temperatures will likely remain seasonal this weekend, resulting in
rain during the day for most places and then snow overnight. A break
will be seen Sunday, then temperatures will likely become colder
with chances for snow early next week in the typical snow belt
locations.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1156 PM EDT Tue Apr 1 2025

Mixed wintry precip returns late tonight into Wednesday.

Low pressure will move ne from the southern plains toward WI.
High clouds are already extensive. Cigs will thicken and lower
tonight, and -SN should break out at MBL/TVC by 06-07Z, and
reaching the other sites in the morning. SN turns to RA at
MBL/TVC by midday Wednesday; there might be some brief FZRA
during the transition, more likely at TVC. PLN/APN mix with FZRA
and RA in the afternoon, while CIU does so in the evening.
TAFS will be VFR most of tonight, MVFR Wed morning, MVFR to IFR
in the afternoon. Note that APN/PLN continue to deal with power
outages.

E to se winds will become gustier Wednesday. LLWS as well, with
very strong winds just off the surface.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...Winter Weather Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 5 PM EDT
     this afternoon for MIZ016>018-022>024-029-030-036-098-099.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for
     MIZ020-021-025>028-031>035-041-042.
     Winter Weather Advisory from noon today to 8 PM EDT this
     evening for MIZ086>088-095>097.
MARINE...Gale Warning from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM EDT this evening
     for LHZ345>349.
     Gale Warning from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening
     for LMZ323-341-342-344>346.
     Gale Warning from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM EDT this evening
     for LSZ321-322.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DJC
LONG TERM...ELD
AVIATION...JZ