055
FXUS63 KAPX 302327
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
727 PM EDT Mon Jun 30 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rounds of showers and storms continue through this evening, ending
  overnight.

- Rain-free weather expected for most areas Tuesday through the
  remainder of the week.

- Warm and humid weather currently expected for 4th of July
  holiday weekend with the return of our next main chances for
  showers/storms.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 225 PM EDT Mon Jun 30 2025

Pattern Synopsis:

Seasonably impressive troughing currently digging over the Midwest
will slide overhead tonight into Tuesday. The associated broad
parent cyclone will gradually pivot from James Bay over Quebec
during that time with the attendant diffuse cold front continuing to
slide southeast of the CWA this evening and tonight.

Forecast Details:

Multiple rounds of showers and storms will cross northern Michigan
through this afternoon and evening. The most likely area for
multiple rounds of storms will be across northeast lower Michigan --
primarily along and east of the a line stretching from Houghton Lake
to Presque Isle. While severe storms are not currently anticipated,
a few strong storms will be possible. The main hazards with storms
through this evening will be locally heavy rainfall, gusty winds,
and small hail. Current storms working across northeast lower have
been efficient rainfall producers given an environment characterized
by ~1.6" to 1.7" PWAT values, dropping between 1-2"+ of rain so far
in a relatively short amount of time. Should additional storms track
over these areas later this afternoon and evening, localized
flooding will be possible.

Otherwise, showers and storms will taper off later this evening and
tonight as favorable forcing/support wanes and high pressure
temporarily noses into the Great Lakes. Lows will stay in the 60s
for most areas tonight, warming back into the mid 70s to low 80s
Tuesday afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 225 PM EDT Mon Jun 30 2025

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast:

Embedded shortwave troughing will punch across the far northern
Great Lakes Tuesday night into Wednesday with seasonably strong
troughing digging overhead late Wednesday into Thursday. Surface
high pressure will hang around into Wednesday morning. Pressure/
height falls overspread the area through the day, bringing slight
chances for daytime showers and storms to parts of northeast lower
associated with potential lake breeze interactions, primarily near
Saginaw Bay. Better chances for showers and isolated thunder look to
work in late Wednesday into Thursday morning associated with the
aforementioned troughing. High pressure and rain-free weather look
to settle in again through the end of the week as ridging folds over
the Great Lakes into the first half of the weekend. The next chances
for showers and storms return late this upcoming weekend. Slightly
varying highs from the upper 70s to low 90s are in store through the
period, with the warmest days expected to be Friday and Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 726 PM EDT Mon Jun 30 2025

Looking at what should be VFR conditions through this taf period
under some passing mid and high level clouds tonight, and the
development of some fairly high based cumulus Tuesday. May yet
see a few light showers this evening, but with minimal impacts
expected. No wind concerns through the duration.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DJC
LONG TERM...DJC
AVIATION...MSB