804
FXUS63 KAPX 071919
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
219 PM EST Sun Dec 7 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Lingering lake effect snow showers this afternoon/evening,
  most notably across portions of Chippewa County.

- Cold overnight low temperatures tonight.

- Watching several potentially impactful snow events this week:
   * Late Monday - Tuesday
   * Tuesday night - Wednesday
   * Thursday night/Friday through the weekend

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 215 PM EST Sun Dec 7 2025

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Longwave troughing remains anchored over
the eastern two-thirds of the NOAM this afternoon. Embedded
shortwave trough axis is currently in the process of swinging
through locally with the last vestiges of synoptically aided snow
exiting stage right. While some lake induced snow showers will no
doubt continue into this evening an eventual down trend should
commence as ~1032mb sfc high pressure is progged to settle overhead
later tonight.

Forecast Details: Lake induced snow showers continue across portions
of northwest lower and eastern upper Michigan this afternoon. The
most notable activity across parts of western and central Chippewa
County where an additional localized 2-5"+ of accumulation remains
possible through this evening. Elsewhere, snow showers are expected
to wane in coverage into the evening, but light winds may yield land
breeze processes and potential for convergent snow bands/meso vortex
generation into tonight. Latest CAMs still in line with this
thought, and largely keeps much of this activity offshore of
northwest lower into tonight. That said, wouldn`t be all too
surprised if a few snow showers scrape parts of the immediate
northwest lower coast at times.

Otherwise, clouds largely clear across much of the area through the
night, again save for those nearest the Lake Michigan and Superior
shorelines. Aforementioned light winds, clear skies and at least a
minor fresh addition to our snow pack from last night/today should
all lead to excellent radiational cooling across much of the area.
Coldest temps expected to be inland where sub-zero temps appear to
be most likely. "Warmer" near the coasts and for those that hold on
to some cloud cover...likely in the single digits and low teens
above zero.


&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 215 PM EST Sun Dec 7 2025

Active winter pattern continues for the week ahead with several
periods to watch for potentially impactful snow.

Day 2-3 (Monday - Tuesday): After a very cold start across much of
the area Monday morning, winds turn out of the south-southwest in
advance of of our next clipper set to arrive Monday night - Tuesday.
Latest trends continue to support increasing potential for SSW flow
lake effect to ramp up in advance of this event across Lake Michigan
Monday afternoon through Monday evening -- focusing on western Mack/
Chip counties. Later Monday night, synoptic support arrives from the
west, and while synoptically driven snow is expected to spread
across the entirely of the forecast area during this time, the
heaviest likely to remain across parts of the eastern U.P.,
stretching into the Lake Michigan shoreline counties of northwest
lower. Synoptic support exits through the day Tuesday with some
lingering lake effect into the evening. 24-30 hour (18z Mon. - 00z
Wed.) LREF & NBM snowfall probabilities certainly highest across
parts of western Chip/Mack with high (>70%) chances of 4"+ of new
snow. Medium probabilities (30-50%) of 6"+. While probs are lower
across far northwest lower, there`s still some 50-70% chances for
4"+ across parts of Emmet, Leelanau, Benzie and Manistee counties.
Favored accums across the remainder of northern lower and eastern
upper in the 1-3" range. And lastly to toss another wrench in,
increasingly gusty winds are anticipated Monday night-Tuesday,
especially near the coasts (coinciding with the areas of greatest
snowfall) -- would expect considerable blowing/drifting and
significantly reduced visibility.

Day 4-7 (Tue night. - Friday): Hot on the heels of Monday
night/Tuesday`s system, another more potent wave is expected to dig
across the upper MS valley and western Great Lakes Tuesday
night/Wednesday. Associated sfc low pressure progged to track across
the Upper Midwest and into central/southern MI. While it appears to
be a quick-mover, several inches of snow look possible with latest
probs for 4"+ across northern lower ranging from 40-65%+. Lower
probs north of the bridge. As noted by the prior forecaster, given
strong warm advection surge driving the bulk of this snowfall,
thermodynamics will continue to have to be monitored, especially the
farther south you go. Latest trends support all snow across APX`s
footprint, but the rain/snow mix (or all rain) line isn`t all that
far to the south. This may also result in lower snow ratios than
guidance is currently depicting (outside of the FGEN max). Periods
of lake effect snow showers a good bet on the backside of this
system Wednesday afternoon - Thursday night.

Another wave set to cross the northern tier of the country on Friday
with increasing potential for the core of an Arctic airmass to
follow in its wake heading into the weekend. Longer range ENS trends
favor increasing likelihood for a prolonged lake effect/enhanced
event that`d favor the typical snowbelts with highs in the teens/low
20s and lows in the single digits across much of northern MI.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1258 PM EST Sun Dec 7 2025

Current -SHSN at KPLN, KTVC will end this evening as winds
become light and variable tonight. -SN and VCSH will continue
at KCIU until around midnight tonight. VFR CIGs and VISBYs are
then expected to continue through the remainder of the forecast
period, but lake effect snow showers could return periodic MVFR
CIGs and VISBYs to KCIU, KTVC, KPLN, and KMBL Monday afternoon
beyond the end of the TAF period.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...Winter Weather Advisory until 1 AM EST Monday for MIZ086-087.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for
     LHZ345>349.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for LMZ323-
     341-342-344>346.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for LSZ321-
     322.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MJG
LONG TERM...MJG
AVIATION...SJC