806
FXUS63 KAPX 101122
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
722 AM EDT Sun Aug 10 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- More shower and storm chances today, particularly across the
  Straits into northeast lower.

- Warm with periodic shower and storm chances continuing into
  the start of the week.

- A bit less warm and humid Wednesday into Thursday, with
  perhaps more warming heading into the start of the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 244 AM EDT Sun Aug 10 2025

Still contending with longwave troughing scooting right along the
Canada-US border, with parent surface low right around Winnipeg,
Manitoba for the time being... surface reflection showcases a
stationary frontal boundary stretching from roughly northwest
Ontario, south to around Salina, KS, with a series of convectively
agitated waves spread across the front, along with some elevated
features coming into play. Currently watching how an impressive,
back-building area of convection producing impressive rain amounts
and widespread flooding across the Milwaukee metro evolves as it
slowly drifts north and east, as it may have pretty big implications
on our forecast today.

As we head into the day on Sunday, probably contending with a lot of
convective debris from what looks to be a stupendous convective
outburst near the Quad Cities (IA/IL) later tonight along with stuff
in our own backyard drifting from the aforementioned southeast
Wisconsin convection. Frontal boundary still set to be well to our
west, though will be making some progress as we head into tonight.
Definitely another juicer of a day Sunday as highs spike back into
the 80s and 90s (warmest northeast lower) with dewpoints hovering
around 70. Coolest temps expected across NW lower and eastern upper
as that will likely be where the most cloud cover from convective
debris settles.

With lacking forcing from the front that is set to remain well
to our west today, will have to wait for enough diurnal
instability to transpire and break the cap in the afternoon.
Most likely area for storms to fire will be across the Straits
into northeast lower as lake breeze convergence processes (and
the pooling of 70 to 73 dewpoints) sets the stage for the best
overlapping of ingredients to generate convection. Severe
chances are a bit of a question mark at this juncture as it will
be heavily dependent on how much instability can transpire and
how much any convection can make of a weakly sheared (sub 20kt
bulk shear) environment. With potential for an incessant amount
of outflow boundary collisions, certainly possible for a storm
to realize some dumb luck and turn strong to severe in a locally
favorable environment, with primary concerns being gusty winds
and hail.

Looking ahead into tonight, anticipating diurnal convection to taper
off, but with the front working ever so closer, there is potential
for some additional LLJ driven convection, especially if the
agitated wave originating over the Quad Cities tonight can traverse
the region. More details to come, but regardless, certainly looks
like another muggy night as temperatures once again fail to drop
much under 70, with perhaps some interior locales reaching 65 at
best.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 244 AM EDT Sun Aug 10 2025

Still contending with a muggy, repetitive pattern as we head through
the middle of next week... that frontal boundary will CRAWL as it
passes through the region considering the parent troughing currently
over Manitoba will flatten and dart north and east into Ontario...
leaving us with frontal-paralell flow, and thus minimal advancement
of the boundary. As such, anticipating the continuation of shower
and storm chances... and as discussed by the previous forecaster,
most of this activity will probably be localized and driven from
lingering outflow and lake breeze processes given meager forcing.
Eventually, another area of troughing digs into the northern CONUS
later in the week, and will provide enough forcing to dispatch the
front to the south and east around Wednesday, though with some
lingering moisture, there remains some potential for some rain
showers despite the cooler and less humid air. Longer term guidance
doesn`t keep that front past us for very long, as the ridge
amplifies again, and draws the front back northward with time,
bringing more warmth and humidity as we head into next weekend...
and thus... more shower and storm chances, though the exact
evolution of any of this activity remains up in the air (pun) at
this juncture.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 722 AM EDT Sun Aug 10 2025

Light showers will linger near MBL and TVC for the next few hours
this morning. Additional scattered storms are expected across the
area again Sunday afternoon. A few strong storms will bring the
potential for lightning, small hail, gusty winds, and brief heavy
downpours. MVFR/IFR CIGs may linger for another hour or two before
VFR conditions are expected across northern Michigan TAF sites
through the remainder of the day.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this
     evening for LMZ344>346.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HAD
LONG TERM...HAD
AVIATION...DJC