282
FXUS64 KAMA 081848
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1248 PM CST Wed Jan 8 2025

...New KEY MESSAGES...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1244 PM CST Wed Jan 8 2025

-Accumulating snowfall and winter travel impacts are looking more
 likely Thursday, especially along and southeast of a line from
 Hereford to Amarillo to Canadian.

-Expect below normal temperatures through Friday, with a brief
 warm up into the 40s and 50s Saturday, before getting colder
 again into early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM ...
(Today through Thursday night)
Issued at 307 AM CST Wed Jan 8 2025

A fairly quiet day today as we await the next weather system over
the Baja area to eject to the northeast and possibly bring winter
weather to the Panhandles tomorrow. Winds will be light and
variable today and will start to shift more southwesterly in the
evening. Highs will be in the low 40s for most areas, and we`ll
have some clearing skies.

Clouds will begin to increase on early Thursday morning as the
weather system to the south begins to eject to the northeast. Most
of the moisture is expected to be across central and northeast
Texas, leaving limited moisture for the Panhandles. However, there
may be enough to squeeze out some light snow amounts. And should
we get a little more favorable moisture transport, perhaps we
pull off a half an inch to maybe a couple inches, but the overall
probabilities are favoring light accumulations to nothing. All
that being said, there is a possibility that we over perform on
the moisture (~10% chance) and that would support widespread 1-3
inches with some isolated areas exceeding 3 inches. The northwest
would be the lower amounts and the eastern Panhandles along and
south of the Canadian River would see the higher amounts.

Weber

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 307 AM CST Wed Jan 8 2025

The long term may be more on the quiet side as the weather system
exits to the east and drier air moves in behind. Highs will be in
the upper 30s to lower 40s. A weak ridge is projected to briefly
move over the Panhandles on Saturday with warmer temperatures
associated. We`re looking at highs across the Panhandles returning
to the 50s, and the southwest may even get close to 60. Another
cold front expected to clip the Panhandles Saturday night, leading
to highs back in the low 40s on Sunday. Will not rule out some
light precipitation with this front, but right now to low of
confidence to mention in the forecast. Milder temperatures to
return on Monday as we start to get a little bit of southwest flow
to return. Things get a little tricky on Tuesday as the trough
that provided mild southwest flow on Monday looks to cutoff again
down by the Baja, only this time it will retrograde back over the
Pacific which leave a big question as to what the low will do mid
to late next week.

Weber

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1126 AM CST Wed Jan 8 2025

MVFR conditions should continue at DHT for the next couple of
hours. Then cloud coverage should clear out and the TAF will
return to VFR through the rest of the day. Tomorrow, wind speeds
will ramp up at the surface as a cold front moves across the
region. Bands of snowfall have a chance to set up over AMA
tomorrow morning near the 12Z timeframe. MVFR to IFR conditions
may manifest earlier at the Amarillo terminal if snowfall rates
increase high enough to reduce visibility. Otherwise, MVFR
ceilings will approach all sites by tomorrow afternoon.

Rangel

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                25  38  21  41 /  10  70  20   0
Beaver OK                  18  38  16  38 /   0  50  40   0
Boise City OK              17  37  14  39 /   0  30  10   0
Borger TX                  26  42  21  43 /  10  60  20   0
Boys Ranch TX              23  40  19  43 /  10  50  20   0
Canyon TX                  25  39  19  41 /  20  70  30   0
Clarendon TX               26  41  24  41 /  20  70  20   0
Dalhart TX                 19  38  15  40 /   0  50  20   0
Guymon OK                  17  39  15  40 /   0  50  20   0
Hereford TX                24  40  19  41 /  10  60  30   0
Lipscomb TX                23  38  20  38 /   0  60  30   0
Pampa TX                   26  38  21  39 /  10  70  20   0
Shamrock TX                24  40  24  41 /  10  70  20   0
Wellington TX              24  40  25  42 /  20  70  20   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....89
AVIATION...55