540
FXUS64 KAMA 162340
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
640 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 213 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025

- There is a very slight chance for a severe thunderstorm in the
  northeastern combined Panhandles tomorrow afternoon.

- Temperatures will return to the upper-80s to low-90s across most
  of the Panhandles this weekend.

- Breezy to windy conditions will be possible on Sunday and
  Monday.

- Highly conditional storm chances in the far eastern Panhandles
  on Sunday. Potential for storms to become severe if they do
  form.

&&

.SHORT TERM ...
(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 213 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025

A closed mid to upper low is currently over MN about to enter the
Great Lakes Region as of this writing. This is the system
expected to feed some severe weather for the Ohio River Valley
later today. Now for the FA, the Panhandles are south of this
system with quasi- zonal flow aloft. For the combined OK/TX
Panhandles, fairly benign weather is expected today and mostly tomorrow
with relatively calm winds. Afternoon highs tomorrow may be a few
degrees warmer especially over the southeastern TX Panhandle into
the mid to upper 80s. Under the southwest flow aloft tomorrow,
some perturbations may try to spark a thunderstorm or two in the
far northeastern combined Panhandles. Some CAMs are trying to pop
a thunderstorm over or around Beaver County before moving
northeast into KS and fall apart. Have added a slight chance PoP
between 3PM and 7PM tomorrow afternoon mainly for Beaver County.
If something can get going, storms may be high based but
potentially severe. NAM has MLCAPE values well over 3000 J/Kg
with bulk shear well over 30 kts. H7 theta-e does not look the
greatest and confidence is not very high for storm development but
will need to be watched.

36

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Sunday through next Thursday)
Issued at 213 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025

By Sunday, much of the western CONUS will be under a broad mid to
upper level trough. This trough will have the FA under southwest
flow aloft and feed a surface trough. The surface trough is
expected to bring dry and breezy conditions to the combined
Panhandles. A dryline is expected to develop along the front edge
of the surface trough. Where this dryline sets up is yet to be
determined, but confidence is high that it will be east of the
combined Panhandles. This will limit storm chances for the far
eastern combined Panhandles. Depending on the progression of the
dryline a 10 to 20 PoP may be needed to cover storms that develop
in the area before east into western OK. For now PoPs remain less
than 10 percent.

Monday, as the surface low progesses east, a cold front will fill
in behind and bring north winds. Breezy winds are expected Mon
afternoon ahead of the front with breezy winds Tue behind the
front. Some few ensemble members are hinting at showers behind the
front in the northern combined Panhandles Mon night. The NBM
seems to be heavily weighted by some outliers as the NBM50 has no
QPF and the NBM75 has less coverage of QPF than the mean. Have
left some slight chance PoPs in for now. Tuesday, behind the
front, afternoon temperatures are expected to be in the 70s.
Wednesday, conditions warm slightly into the upper 70s with light
winds. It is not until Thu when temperatures bounce well into the
80s with potential 90s on Fri.

36

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 632 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025

VFR conditions are expected throughout the 00Z TAF period at all
TAF sites. Winds will generally be out of the southwest at 5-15
kts with higher gusts at times with few to sct high clouds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                55  87  55  87 /   0   0   0   0
Beaver OK                  49  85  52  93 /   0  20  10   0
Boise City OK              45  82  47  84 /   0   0   0   0
Borger TX                  53  90  55  92 /   0  10   0   0
Boys Ranch TX              50  87  51  87 /   0   0   0   0
Canyon TX                  53  87  52  87 /   0   0   0   0
Clarendon TX               57  88  57  90 /   0  10   0   0
Dalhart TX                 46  83  46  84 /   0   0   0   0
Guymon OK                  45  85  48  89 /   0  10   0   0
Hereford TX                53  87  51  87 /   0   0   0   0
Lipscomb TX                52  87  56  91 /   0  20  10   0
Pampa TX                   55  88  57  89 /   0  10   0   0
Shamrock TX                56  88  58  91 /   0  10  10  10
Wellington TX              56  90  60  92 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...36
LONG TERM....36
AVIATION...29