633
FXUS64 KAMA 060524
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1224 AM CDT Wed Aug 6 2025

...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1210 AM CDT Wed Aug 6 2025

- More widespread hot (>=100 degree) temperatures are expected today
  through Friday across the combined Panhandles.

- Daily low precipitation chances return to end this week,
  increasing into next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday night)
Issued at 1210 AM CDT Wed Aug 6 2025

A more "traditional", albeit delayed iteration of Panhandle summer
has finally arrived to the region as our strongest high pressure
system of the season builds overhead. This "heat dome" combined with
warming 850mb temps and breezy downsloping SW winds is reinforcing
the presence of triple digit afternoon temperatures across a vast
majority of the Panhandles through the end of the work week. This
includes the potential for high temps as high as 105 for locations
such as Guymon, Borger, and Palo Duro Canyon over the next couple of
days. The only real factor that may inhibit higher triple digit
temperatures on Thursday would be the presence of increased cloud
cover, but will continue favoring hotter guidance for now. Winds
will stay noticeably breezy as well, thanks to a tightening pressure
gradient over the area as a sfc low deepens to the lee of the
Rockies. Expect sustained winds of 15-25 mph with slightly higher
gusts at times. Despite some humidity being maintained, these breezy
winds will help keep the heat index relatively at bay.

Shower and storm chances stay <10% this afternoon and evening, with
any activity favored to stay across the higher terrain of NM when
some mid-level moisture is advected in. Chances slightly improve Thu
afternoon-evening across the far NW Panhandles under similar
circumstances, but again should remain below 15% due to the
overwhelming influence of the high pressure.

Harrel

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 1210 AM CDT Wed Aug 6 2025

Models indicate that Friday may be another shoe-in for widespread
triple digits, showing high probabilities to reach 100 across a
majority of the CWA. With the ridge likely beginning to weaken
according to global guidance, a stronger shortwave may be able to
ride over the northern Panhandles Friday evening. For now, this
feature only has about a 15% chance to produce measurable
precipitation, but these probabilities may end up increasing if the
NAM and GFS side of data should come to fruition.

This weekend into next week, ensembles show fair agreement that the
high centered to our west will become increasingly displaced from
the region as a trough digs over the Pacific Northwest. As a result,
better deep layer moisture is progged to return to the Panhandles
like we`ve seen most of the summer, allowing daily shower and storm
chances to come back with it. Another benefit of this synoptic
pattern is the return of temperatures closer to seasonal averages in
the 80s and 90s, providing high probabilities (70-100%) for
afternoon highs to stay below 100 degrees Mon-Wed.

Harrel

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1210 AM CDT Wed Aug 6 2025

VFR sky conditions are forecast at all sites throughout the 06z
TAF period, but some LLWS is expected tonight thanks to sfc winds
of 10-15 kts with a strengthening ~50kt LLJ overhead across much
of the Panhandles. A boundary will temporarily shift winds to the
NW at KGUY and KDHT later today, before returning to southerly
through the end of the period. Otherwise, expect winds generally
out of the south at 10-20 kts with slightly higher gusts at times.

Harrel

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 9 PM CDT this evening
     for TXZ001>003-006>008-011>013-016>018-317.

OK...Heat Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 9 PM CDT this evening
     for OKZ001-002.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...38
LONG TERM....38
AVIATION...38