701
FXUS64 KAMA 170803
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
303 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM ...
(Today through Thursday night)
Issued at 248 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024

A cold front has passes through the panhandles earlier this
morning shifting the winds to the north and bringing cooler air to
the panhandles. This morning is still seeing some light rain
showers as moisture and instability from the front still linger
over the region. This activity has a high chance of decreasing and
ceasing through the morning hours. However the moisture and
instability will still be present under the trough across the
southern plains. So once daytime heating occurs further rain
showers and thunderstorms have a high chance of developing. These
would form mainly over the higher terrain in NM and CO before
detaching and moving into the panhandles. This would make the
western to central portions of the panhandles more likely to see
rain showers and thunderstorms with the eastern panhandles having
a lesser chance. There will be a small chance that a few of the
storms could become strong to severe with winds being the main
threat. Overall moisture values remain on the higher side as well
which coupled with slow storm motions will allow for at least a
small chance of flooding. The chance for severe weather and
flooding will mimic the overall rain shower and thunder chance
with better odds in the west and lesser odds in the east. The
timing for these rain showers and thunderstorms in the panhandles
will be more towards the later afternoon and evening hours. This
due to the time it will take for the storms to form then drift to
the panhandles. Some of the rain showers and thunderstorms could
then persist through to the morning hours similar to this
morning. Thursday should in large should see a similar scenario
play out with another round of afternoon and evening rain showers.
Overall moisture and instability look to be lower than today so
the activity will more likely than not be less extensive and
weaker compare to today. With the cooler air already streaming
into the panhandles and with active weather that should bring
cloudier skies temperatures will be cooler today compared to the
scorching days we just had. Highs will fall into the 80s and 90s
for both today and Thursday.

SH

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 248 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024

An active weather pattern remains in full swing through the entire
extended period. Upper level ridging continues in the southwest
CONUS, while northwest flow prolongs over our region, and
monsoonal moisture stays in effect. Several fronts are currently
forecast to progress through our CWA during this time. This will
allow for additional thunderstorm chances each day and consistent
below average high temperatures.

Friday, highs are progged to be the warmest out of the extended.
Widespread 90`s and some upper 80`s are expected due to a small
lull in the activity during the day. Overnight, a shortwave
trough may enter the High Plains. This coupled with the low level
jet in place should allow for organized, perhaps widespread,
thunderstorm activity into Saturday. Thunderstorms are not
expected to be severe at this time.

Saturday onward, NBM values and long range models suggest that
thunderstorm production may occur each day, but confidence on
further widespread precipitation or MCS systems is low at this
time. Instead, a scattered to isolated thunderstorm regime is
proposed. Chances for severe thunderstorms this far out in time
are low due to fluctuating mesoscale parameters. However, it
still cannot be entirely ruled out, as gusty winds and heavy rain
are fully within the realm of possibility due to the seasonal
environmental parameters we have as constants for mid July. 80`s
and lower 90`s are forecast to be achieved for highs through the
weekend. By Monday, the upper level trough becomes elongated
through the Central Plains and heights decrease from northeast to
southwest. This should allow for highs to decrease even further
thanks to continuous northeasterly surface winds and increased
chances for thunderstorms. Highs may range between the upper 70`s
and 80`s on Monday. 80 degree temperatures and rain chances are
anticipated to prolong through mid next week.

Rangel

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1243 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024

Ongoing rain showers persist across much of the panhandles early
this morning with conditions remaining VFR. These rain showers will
diminish and cease within the next few hours leaving fair weather
conditions through to the afternoon hours. By the afternoon to
evening hours rain showers and thunderstorms will redevelop and
impact the panhandles. The most likely areas to be impacted is
the western and northern panhandles with all TAF sites having at
least a small chance of being directly impacted. The odds of rain
showers and thunderstorms on station is highest at KDHT and lower
for KAMA and KGUY. Even if the stations are directly hit
conditions should remain VFR with possible dip down to MVFR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                91  65  87  66 /  20  60  30  30
Beaver OK                  87  63  86  62 /  20  20  10  10
Boise City OK              86  62  85  62 /  60  50  30  20
Borger TX                  95  67  92  68 /  20  50  30  20
Boys Ranch TX              93  66  89  65 /  40  70  30  30
Canyon TX                  91  65  86  64 /  30  60  30  30
Clarendon TX               91  65  87  64 /  20  50  30  10
Dalhart TX                 89  60  86  61 /  50  60  30  20
Guymon OK                  87  59  87  61 /  30  40  20  20
Hereford TX                94  65  88  64 /  30  70  30  30
Lipscomb TX                90  65  88  64 /  30  20  10  10
Pampa TX                   89  64  87  63 /  30  40  20  20
Shamrock TX                92  65  90  64 /  30  40  20  10
Wellington TX              94  66  91  65 /  20  40  30  10

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...98
LONG TERM....55
AVIATION...98