Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
059 FXUS64 KAMA 112243 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 543 PM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1256 PM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025 - Warm and breezy conditions will continue to linger through the day Sunday. - A cold front is set to arrive Sunday night, providing cooler temperatures in the 60s and 70s Mon-Tue. - Rounds of rain chances return to much of the area early Monday through Tuesday next week. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Sunday night) Issued at 1256 PM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025 Later this evening, convective development across the high plains of New Mexico will advance eastward towards the Panhandle, but hi-res data agree the vast majority of this activity should decay upon crossing the state line. 10% POPs across the west have been maintained after 7 PM just in case any of this precip survives and manages to squeeze out measurable rain. Our lovely Panhandle breezy conditions look to persist overnight thanks to the presence of an intensifying 40-50kt 850mb low-level jet, and lingering tight pressure gradient. Most of these stronger winds should fail to mix down, but the pressure gradient will support sustained winds of 15-20 mph with occasional gusts up to 35 mph translating to the surface. Similar conditions will last through much of Sunday, with breezy south-southwest winds and highs in the 80s. We`ll have to keep an eye on the southern Panhandle tomorrow afternoon for stray shower or storm development, where a subtle perturbation could help generate some weak convection (15-20% POPs). Otherwise, the primary headline shifts to an approaching cold front late Sunday evening through the early morning hours Monday. This is the catalyst which should kickstart the bulk of our precipitation potential through Tuesday. Breezy winds will shift to northerly upon the fronts arrival, advecting drier sfc air and cooler temperatures to the region (lows generally in the 50s). Along and ahead of the front, sufficient lift and pooled moisture should help increase rain chances across our south-southeast counties to 25-35%, with some occassional rumbles of thunder not out of the question. Harrel && .LONG TERM... (Monday through next Friday) Issued at 1256 PM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025 As we focus on the Columbus Day holiday, we can expect to wake up to far more seasonal conditions for mid-October in the wake of the cold frontal passage. Current forecast highs are in the 60s and 70s, but northern counties of the forecast area have low chances to stay in the 50s through the day. Initially this will also usher in a pronounced area of drier low-level air, but most model guidance insist this will quickly be overtaken by a surge of moisture return due to increasing southerly 700mb flow. Resulting theta-e advection should moisten the column enough to support PWATs of 1-1.5" over the region, which would be well above the 90th percentile of climatology for this time of year. Southwest flow aloft should provide a few rounds of lift behind the front in the form of vorticity advection and modest jet streak dynamics, but the placement and timing of these features remains a key component to our showers/thunderstorm potential through Tuesday. Recent trends have lifted some of these disturbances further north across the northwest Panhandles during this time frame, while others have shunted them primarily south of the Panhandles altogether. Looking at ensemble means and probabilistic outputs, data still suggest a southwest to northeast oriented swath of light to moderate rain should stretch across much of the CWA, lifting from south to north Monday into Tuesday. If there is still a slot of drier air behind the front when these disturbances arrive, or the disturbances are poorly located relative to the Panhandles, a portion of the area may be left with little to no precipitation. We will simply have to wait and see if/where that ultimately occurs. Overall, most rainfall totals should be 0.25" or less, with the southwest to central Texas Panhandle having 20-40% probabilities to exceed 0.50" of rain. If more aggressive guidance pans out, very localized totals >1" could be feasible under any stronger or prolonged convection (<15% probability of occurring). By mid week, 500mb ridging is progged to lift northward and regain hold over the southern Plains, sending a large scale dry slot over the region, reducing additional rain chances through the end of the work week to less than 15%. A warming trend should take place as well, recovering afternoon temperatures into the 70s and 80s Wednesday onward. However, we will be watching a larger system over the Pacific NW that models are struggling to handle the progression of later next week, which could re-invigorate rain potential and provide another brief cool down. Harrel && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 542 PM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025 VFR conditions are expected through the next 24 hours. Ongoing gusty winds are expected to gradually weaken through the night and through much of the day on Sunday. && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. OK...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...38 LONG TERM....38 AVIATION...52