821
FXUS64 KAMA 272329
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
629 PM CDT Thu Mar 27 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 207 PM CDT Thu Mar 27 2025

- Thunderstorms with gusty winds and little rain possible in the
  western and central Oklahoma Panhandle and the western Texas
  Panhandle.

- Thunderstorms possible in the central Panhandles along a dryline
  Friday afternoon.

- Critical fire weather conditions next Tuesday possible.

&&

.SHORT TERM ...
(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 207 PM CDT Thu Mar 27 2025

A few showers and thunderstorms started to develop over the Black
Mesa in northern Union County this afternoon. These showers and
and storms are expected to continue to develop and expand. They
may move into our northwest CWA late this afternoon and early
this evening. This activity is developing in an axis of better 700
mb theta-e air. There is also some surface convergence in this
area. Any showers or thunderstorms should decrease with the
setting sun, so we are not expecting them to get too far into the
Panhandles.

A dryline is expected to set up in the central Panhandles Friday
afternoon.  It is unclear if this dryline will cause some showers or
thunderstorms during the peak heating of the day.  For now, have
added some small chances of showers and storms in the central
Panhandles late afternoon through the early evening.

Goehring

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 207 PM CDT Thu Mar 27 2025

An upper level short wave trough will move across the Panhandles on
Saturday.  This trough will help to increase west winds behind a
Pacific front.  Winds could be in the 20 to 30 mph range, especially
across the west closest to the tightest pressure gradient.

A cold front passes through the Panhandles on Saturday night.  This
will cool back high temperatures some 10 to 20 degrees for Sunday.

The flow aloft will remain pretty progressive through the late
weekend into the early week with minor disturbances moving through
the flow.  The next "windy" and dry day should be Tuesday as an
upper level trough pushes through the Rockies and onto the plains.
Models do not agree with the timing or the strength of this system,
but the pattern is looking fairly windy.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 624 PM CDT Thu Mar 27 2025

VFR conditions prevail for the next 24 hours. Cloud decks over any
TAF site are expected to remain above 20,000 ft. Wind speeds will
stay breezy through the rest of the day, but should decrease later
tonight as we head into early Friday morning. Tomorrow afternoon,
wind speeds will ramp up again at all sites. The mean 24 hour
wind direction should be west-southwesterly.

Rangel

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                49  84  53  82 /   0  20  20   0
Beaver OK                  50  85  54  83 /   0   0   0   0
Boise City OK              48  85  48  76 /  20   0   0   0
Borger TX                  51  87  55  85 /   0  20  20   0
Boys Ranch TX              49  87  51  81 /  10   0   0   0
Canyon TX                  49  83  51  80 /   0  20  20   0
Clarendon TX               50  82  54  84 /   0  10  10   0
Dalhart TX                 46  84  46  77 /  20   0   0   0
Guymon OK                  49  86  49  79 /  20  20  20   0
Hereford TX                48  84  48  80 /  10   0   0   0
Lipscomb TX                51  82  55  85 /   0   0   0   0
Pampa TX                   50  83  54  83 /   0  20  20   0
Shamrock TX                51  80  54  87 /   0   0   0   0
Wellington TX              51  80  54  88 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM....15
AVIATION...55