893
FXUS64 KAMA 241758
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1258 PM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 1050 PM CDT Sat Aug 23 2025

There will be a low chance (10-30%) for showers and thunderstorms to
work in from the higher terrain in New Mexico into the northwestern
combined Panhandles today. However, this convection is expected to
weaken as it approaches the Panhandles owing to a capped environment
and weakly negative 700mb theta-e advection. Later in the overnight
hours, a couple of lobes of 700mb vorticity is favored to move into
the northeastern combined Panhandles, and combined with positive
700mb theta-e advection, some elevated showers and thunderstorms
will be possible.

Mid- to upper-level clouds are expected to linger across most of the
Panhandles through Sunday morning, but should gradually break up in
the afternoon hours. Meanwhile, southerly to southeasterly low-level
winds and westerly/southwesterly mid-level winds continue to draw in
moisture from the Gulf and the Pacific respectively. A few CAMs
suggest that a remnant outflow boundary/thunderstorms from overnight
activity in the central Plains could work down into the northern and
eastern portion of the Panhandles later in the afternoon. If this
occurs, heavy to torrential rainfall will occur along with a low-end
potential for large hail and damaging winds. However, given the
disagreement among guidance regarding the track of the overnight
convection and the speed of the outflow boundary, confidence in this
scenario is very low at this time.

An embedded shortwave in northwesterly flow aloft will move toward
the Panhandles later in the afternoon which should help force
thunderstorm develop across the Panhandles, especially along and
north of the Canadian River Valley, and move east/southeast. If the
first scenario mentioned above (overnight outflow/convection tracks
into the area) occurs, there could be additional development to the
west of the convection ongoing in the east.

Precipitable water values are expected to range from 1.4" to 1.6",
with higher values possible off the Caprock which is above the 95th
percentile. Additionally, forecast soundings show a tall/skinny CAPE
profile and high freezing levels (>15,000 feet). These factors all
favor warm rain cloud processes which will lead to heavy to
torrential rainfall to occur with thunderstorms. The 50th percentile
of the HREF shows generally 1-2" of rain across the northeastern
combined Panhandles. If the scenario occurs in which thunderstorms
occur ahead of the approaching shortwave, rain totals could be more
in the 2-4" range with locally higher amounts possible. A Flood
Watch was considered across the northeastern/eastern Panhandles, but
have opted to hold off at least for now given the previously
discussed uncertainty.

Showers and thunderstorms will continue to be possible throughout
Sunday night with flooding being the primary hazard.

Vanden Bosch

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Saturday)
Issued at 1050 PM CDT Sat Aug 23 2025

Northwest flow aloft, created by a southwestern ridge and a trough
over the Great Lakes, continues into Monday. Most CAMs suggest that
the outflow from Sunday night`s storms will push through much, if
not all, of the CWA. If this indeed occurs, look for Monday to be
relatively cool, dry, and cloudy. The NBM has highs touching 70
degrees in the northeast with 80s in the south with and PoPs between
20-50%. If the outflow does push through the Panhandles, then the
highs in the south will need adjusted downward, as well as the PoPs
across much of the area. A better chance for showers and
thunderstorms exist Monday night.

The large-scale pattern continues into Tuesday with another
shortwave trough approaching from the northwest later in the day.
Despite temperatures merely staying in the 70s to low-80s, PWATs are
expected to be above the 95th percentile and warm rain cloud
processes will again be favored. Given expected weak instability at
best, showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms possible with moderate
to heavy rain.

Moving into Wednesday and beyond, the large-scale pattern will break
down and the upper-level ridge will progress eastward into the
Plains. This will result in temperatures beginning on a warming
trend.

Vanden Bosch

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1238 PM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025

VFR conditions expected throughout most of the 18Z TAF period at
all TAF sites. The only exception would be starting around 03-05Z
through 08-09Z for PROB30 group for TSRA at all TAF sites where
thunderstorms may produce erratic winds. Otherwise, winds will
generally be out of the south and southeast at 10-20 kts. Some
MVFR cigs could begin to move in for KGUY towards the end of the
TAF period, in which trends will have to be closely monitored.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...52
LONG TERM....52
AVIATION...29