Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
206 FXUS64 KAMA 300507 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 1107 PM CST Sat Nov 29 2025 ...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1055 PM CST Sat Nov 29 2025 -Very cold temperatures for today and tomorrow in the wake of Saturday`s cold front. -Few light snow showers for the far NE Panhandles, flurries elsewhere, early on Monday. -Another potential system is on the horizon that may a slight chance for snow, or rain/snow mix Thursday. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Monday night) Issued at 1055 PM CST Sat Nov 29 2025 Looking at GOES water vapor imagery, another low pressure system can be seen over the PacNW as of this writing. This system is set to bring another mid to upper level open wave trough dipping into the combined Panhandles late tonight into tomorrow morning. For tonight, models continue with the dry trend as this open wave trough comes down into the area. The only areas in the Panhandles that have even a slight chance for measurable precip from this system is eastern Beaver County and northern Lipscomb county, mainly early tomorrow morning. Even if snow is measurable, it may only be around 0.1" to maybe 0.2". Those areas with less than 10 Pops early tomorrow morning may still see this system squeeze out a few flurries. However, mid to lower levels are expected to be quite dry with mid to upper level moisture somewhat lacking. With the cold airmass expected to remain in place, not to mention the lack of sunshine with the cloud cover, afternoon highs well below normal in the low to mid 30s are expected across much of the area. Winds are progged to return to the south late this afternoon around 10 mph. However, southerly winds are not expected to help with any kind of warm up. Overnight, temperatures are expected to drop back into the teens to lower 20s. By afternoon, another surface low will trek across the NE FA bringing back north winds on the backside as it does so. The southeast should see some slightly positive H85 temperatures while the east hangs onto subzero H85 temperatures through the afternoon. There is some uncertainty with how warm Monday afternoon may actually get. For now the NBM is giving afternoon highs in the lower to mid 40s, with the exception of the northeastern combined Panhandles. However, H85 temperatures may still stay quite cool around -2 degrees C for the eastern two thirds of the combined Panhandles and not just the northeastern corner. Going into Monday night/Tuesday morning, temperatures are expected to drop below 20 degrees once again. The NBM gives wide spread low in the mid to upper teens. With the calm winds expected and clear skies, would expect some localized spots to dip cooler towards sunrise closer to their NBM10 forecast. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through next Saturday) Issued at 1055 PM CST Sat Nov 29 2025 Temperatures are progged to finally rebound to near normal Tuesday and Tuesday night, with afternoon temperatures in the mid 50s. A cold front is progged to change that for Wed with temperatures expected to fall below normal once again. Wed`s temps my be around 6 to 8 degrees below normal, but Thu afternoon`s temperatures may be around 10 to 12 degrees below normal. Model`s are in decent disagreement Wed onward with how the system bringing the cold front will play out. For now, this system may bring some prospects for some wintry precipitation. The NBM has given a slight chance PoP for a good portion of the combined Panhandles Wed night into Thu. However, with this being day 5 still, a lot can change. Even the GFS is suggesting precip across portion of the northwest and not the southern combined Panhandles. Depending on how this system progresses, temperature have a potential to return to normal for Fri and Sat. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1055 PM CST Sat Nov 29 2025 VFR conditions are expected to prevail over the next 24 hours. Clear skies may gain a broken deck mainly above 10k feet and hold it through much of the latter half of the period. North winds will fall below 10 kts before turning around the clock to the south and pick up to around 15 kts after 19Z. && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. OK...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...36 LONG TERM....36 AVIATION...36