968
FXUS64 KAMA 071743
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1243 PM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 248 PM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025

- Severe storms continue through the early morning hours across
  the northeastern combined Panhandles. Very large hail and
  damaging winds could occur with the strongest storms.

- There is a low chance for an isolated thunderstorm this evening
  which would have an outside chance to become strong to severe.

- Potentially more widespread strong to severe thunderstorm
  activity is favored Sunday afternoon and through the evening,
  with all hazards possible once again. The primary hazards look
  to be damaging winds and large hail.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday night)
Issued at 121 AM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025

Shortwave trough currently moving through NE with a leading wave
producing ample lift across the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles
this morning. An outflow boundary has pushed almost to the I-40
corridor and two areas of severe convection are ongoing, one in
the Lubbock area and one in the northeastern combined Panhandles.
Low level moisture transport continues to surge into the
Panhandles on a modest 30kt low level jet as observed in the
latest KAMA VWP Hodographs. Latest CAM analysis soundings suggest
1500-2000 J/kg mainly elevated CAPE, but DCAPE values of around
1500 and effective shear of 50 to 60 knots has supported giant
hail (based on radar) and straight line winds up to 90mph
(measured at Miami) in the last hour. The tornado threat should be
low given the elevated nature of the storms behind a notable
outflow, but can`t be ruled out completely for the next few hours.
Storms continue to redevelop behind the outflow with cells near
Boise City, another one approaching Spearman, one near Miami, and
the main line near the OK state line. Additional development may
continue through at least 7 AM based on the latest CAM output,
which makes sense given the strong moisture transport along with
upper level support and outflow boundary. Flooding or flash
flooding could occur with development across the I-40 area.

Subsidence is expected to take over behind the wave starting
between 12z and 18z, and this should keep activity later today
minimal. That said, the next wave near UT may provide enough lift
late the afternoon into the evening for a few isolated cells to
develop off the high terrain of NM. These would have a chance to
move into the northwest Panhandles this evening, but H7 and even
H85 moisture looks much less impressive compared what`s going on
now. Yet if a storm did develop, it would have a low chance to
become severe given MLCAPE near 1500 and effective shear still
around 40-50 knots (long hodographs).

The next good setup for severe storms is gearing up on Sunday when
the upper flow starts to become northwesterly as a broad trough
digs across the northern plains and out over the upper Midwest
while ridging builds over the western CONUS. A cold front will be
approaching the area on Sunday but looks to stall in KS while the
H7 and H85 moisture transport picks up again over West Texas.
Ensembles continue to show very large MLCAPE values (REFS 50th
percentile near 3200 J/kg with 90th percentile pushing 4000 J/kg
across the entire combined Panhandles) with lengthy hodographs
sufficient for 40-50 knots of effective shear. These numbers could
support some extreme hail sizes with any discrete cells
transitioning to damaging winds as storms congeal in response to
an upper level disturbance. The tornado threat should be on the
low side given how weak the 0-1km winds are in the current model
output, but a low level jet in the evening will support better low
level shear mainly after 8PM, but still not super favorable for
tornadoes. It looks like the timing will be mainly afternoon and
evening for this event based on the timing of the upper level wave
and how quick the area will destabilize. Flash flooding will
remain a concern given high PWATs and somewhat slow storm motion
of around 15 to 20 knots.

Ward

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 121 AM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025

The upper level pattern will change going into next week with a
ridge moving further inland in the northern stream while at least
weak troughing develops in the southern stream. This leads to a
pattern reminiscent of a rex block, but more progressive.
Overall, the upper flow won`t be as strong as it has been
recently, but we should keep enough moisture around for at least
isolated to scattered storm potential on most afternoons as
convective temperatures are reached. Temperatures should hang out
below normal early in the week to near normal by the end of the
week.

Ward

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1229 PM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025

As of this afternoon, activity from early this morning alongside
the low cloud deck has officially broken down. This breakdown has
allowed for all terminals to return to VFR conditions for the
afternoon. However, latest CAMs have been suggesting that we may
see a couple more storms later this evening. At this time current
expectations would see activity start to the northwest with
potential to move southeast into the Central Panhandles.
Regardless confidence is not high for impacts to the terminals
with only KDHT having a vicinity mention for now.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                62  88  59  78 /  10  50  60  30
Beaver OK                  59  84  57  82 /  10  50  30  10
Boise City OK              57  85  55  78 /  20  30  30  20
Borger TX                  64  90  61  82 /  20  60  50  20
Boys Ranch TX              61  90  59  80 /  10  50  50  30
Canyon TX                  61  90  58  78 /  10  50  60  30
Clarendon TX               64  89  61  77 /  10  60  70  30
Dalhart TX                 57  87  55  77 /  30  50  40  20
Guymon OK                  59  86  57  80 /  10  50  40  10
Hereford TX                61  91  59  79 /  10  40  50  40
Lipscomb TX                61  85  59  81 /  10  50  50  10
Pampa TX                   63  86  60  79 /  20  60  60  20
Shamrock TX                63  89  61  79 /  10  60  70  20
Wellington TX              65  91  62  80 /  10  60  80  30

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...11