535
FXUS64 KAMA 191104
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
604 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 306 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025

- Near to freezing temperatures in the northwest this morning with
  a moderate chance for this to occur again tomorrow night.

- Rain returns area wide this evening into Sunday.

- Moderate chance for thunderstorms next Tuesday onward. Some of
  these storms could become severe.&&

.SHORT TERM ...
(Today through Sunday night)
Issued at 306 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025

Moisture that has moved across the panhandles following the cold
front is causing low level clouds across the panhandles. This
moisture is mostly confined to the low levels but should be
sufficient to cause light drizzle early this morning. A trough is
currently swinging out of the intermountain west into the
southern plains. This will spin up a new weather system along the
stalled front that is currently over TX. As this system spins up
it will draw additional moisture across the panhandles that will
fuel the increase in precipitation activity. The increase in
moisture will take time so for much of Saturday the shower
activity will be isolated and light. This activity will increase
and become heavier through the day but most notably during the
evening timeframe. Underneath the cloudy and dreary conditions of
Saturday the temperatures will reach a minimum with highs in the
40s to 50s.

During the overnight hours into Sunday the surface low associated
with the weather system has a high chance of passing across the SE
portions of the panhandles. This position allow more ample
moisture over the southern and eastern Panhandles as the
deformation area of the weather system pivots over the panhandles.
This will make the morning hours of Sunday the peak time for
precipitation activity and rainfall amounts. There will be
sufficient instability with the passage of this weather system
for thunderstorms to occur during this time as well. However the
dynamics only favor more general thunderstorms so the chance for
any strong to severe thunderstorms is extremely low. While the
chances are very low it cannot be fully ruled out that some light
snow may be mixed in with some of the rain in the NW panhandles
early on Sunday morning. The weather system will be fast moving so
the moisture will rapidly depart the panhandles during the later
morning hours through the afternoon. So by the evening the
panhandles should be back to dry conditions. With the rapid
departure of the weather system temperatures will be able to
recover with highs returning back to more normal during the
afternoon.

SH

.LONG TERM ...
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 306 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025

Following the departure of the weekend weather system there is a
high chance that dry conditions return to the panhandles for the
start of the work week. The sunny skies associated with the dry
conditions will allow the temperatures to increase back to the
80s to kick off the work week.

This period of dry weather is unlikely to last as mid week has a
moderate chance for return flow pattern to setup across the
southern plains. This will allow gulf moisture to move northward
across the panhandles during the later portions of Tuesday. This
moisture would then allow for showers and thunderstorms activity
across the panhandles. This pattern then has a moderate chance of
staying across the southern plains for the rest of the work week.
To further complicate the weather a series of progressive weak
weather system have a moderate chance of passing across the
southern plains during the mid to late portions of the work week.
These system would provide additional lift creating more
extensive and heavier shower and thunderstorm activity. If the
dynamics are strong enough these weather systems may even produce
severe thunderstorms in the panhandles. With the ample moisture
present over the panhandles the temperatures are more likely than
not to be a little cooler with highs in the 70s.

SH

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 558 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025

A weather system continues to impact the panhandles through all of
today and much of Sunday. This is currently causing the low level
clouds deck across the panhandles that is producing spotty MVFR
conditions. This deck will linger through the entire TAF period.
This evening increasing moisture will lead to showers and then
thunderstorms that may impact all terminals. Conditions during
this period may degrade down to IFR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                48  37  65  40 /  30  90  60   0
Beaver OK                  48  38  63  37 /  30  70  80   0
Boise City OK              43  33  66  35 /  40  60  30   0
Borger TX                  50  40  68  42 /  20  90  70   0
Boys Ranch TX              48  38  68  38 /  30  80  60   0
Canyon TX                  52  37  66  39 /  30  90  60   0
Clarendon TX               51  41  65  43 /  20  90  70   0
Dalhart TX                 46  34  66  34 /  30  70  40   0
Guymon OK                  48  36  66  36 /  20  70  60   0
Hereford TX                52  36  67  37 /  30  90  50   0
Lipscomb TX                50  41  62  41 /  30  80  80   0
Pampa TX                   49  39  63  42 /  30  90  70   0
Shamrock TX                51  43  64  42 /  30  90  80   0
Wellington TX              53  44  66  43 /  30  90  70   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...98
LONG TERM....98
AVIATION...98